Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Tech Plays Have Soared Since TSMC's Strong Outlook, and SK Hynix Reported a Return to Op Profit</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Will Supercharge Demand for DRAM; SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Micron</li>
<li>Key Upcoming Events -- Intel, Microsoft, Mediatek, UMC Results Ahead</li>
</ul>


Taiwan Tech Plays Have Soared Since TSMC's Strong Outlook, and SK Hynix Reported a Return to Op Profit
Memory Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Will Supercharge Demand for DRAM; SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Micron
Key Upcoming Events -- Intel, Microsoft, Mediatek, UMC Results Ahead


Taiwan Tech Weekly: SK Hynix Boosts Optimism for Memory; Intel, Mediatek, Microsoft, UMC Key Events

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With a strong 20A/18A team, Intel might take some CPU shares back from AMD to affect TSMC but reduce geopolitical tensions from the US after Intel returning to the best. </li>
<li>SMIC can use DUV to do 3nm but different from others' because Moore's law is no longer using circuit line width but to use performance, power, density to determine 3nm. </li>
<li>New fabless industry opportunities are emerging in middle east countries, and south east Asia countries like Vietnam. Despite high cost issues, global expansion will help TSMC to attract global talents. </li>
</ul>


With a strong 20A/18A team, Intel might take some CPU shares back from AMD to affect TSMC but reduce geopolitical tensions from the US after Intel returning to the best. 
SMIC can use DUV to do 3nm but different from others' because Moore's law is no longer using circuit line width but to use performance, power, density to determine 3nm. 
New fabless industry opportunities are emerging in middle east countries, and south east Asia countries like Vietnam. Despite high cost issues, global expansion will help TSMC to attract global talents. 


A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

<ul>
<li>As expected, SOX index broke a new high, in line with Nov US semi equipment billings and Oct SIA/WSTS global sales y/y improvement.</li>
<li>SEMI reports Nov front/back end equipment billings decline of 9% and 11% y/y, respectively, which was improved from 14% and 17% y/y decline in Oct, implying recovery intact.</li>
<li>WSTS/SIA earlier reported Oct sales of US$46.6bn, up 3.8% m/m and down only 1% y/y (vs. 16% decline in June), suggesting semi sales y/y improvement and clearly pass the trough.</li>
</ul>


As expected, SOX index broke a new high, in line with Nov US semi equipment billings and Oct SIA/WSTS global sales y/y improvement.
SEMI reports Nov front/back end equipment billings decline of 9% and 11% y/y, respectively, which was improved from 14% and 17% y/y decline in Oct, implying recovery intact.
WSTS/SIA earlier reported Oct sales of US$46.6bn, up 3.8% m/m and down only 1% y/y (vs. 16% decline in June), suggesting semi sales y/y improvement and clearly pass the trough.


Sox Index Broke New High; Nov US SEMI Equipment and Oct SIA Sales Showed Y/Y Improvement

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>The WiFi technology was dominated by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-corp-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:999:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom Corp Cl A (BRCM US)</a>, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a> has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F.</li>
<li>There are speculations that Apple might use MediaTek's WiFi 7 solution in 2024F or consider MediaTek as a potential chip provider.</li>
<li>MediaTek will be using 6nm technology for WiFi 7, replacing the current 28nm technology used for WiFi 6.</li>
</ul>


The WiFi technology was dominated by Broadcom Corp Cl A (BRCM US), but Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F.
There are speculations that Apple might use MediaTek's WiFi 7 solution in 2024F or consider MediaTek as a potential chip provider.
MediaTek will be using 6nm technology for WiFi 7, replacing the current 28nm technology used for WiFi 6.


MediaTek (2454.TT): The WiFi 7 Chip Competition Is Likely to Become Fierce in 2024.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe TSMC represents defensive exposure to AI for investors concerned that many other AI-related stocks' valuations may be too high.</li>
<li>While one may think TSMC seems too obvious as a play, we note that the stock is up only 4.5% over the last six months.</li>
<li>We view TSMC as trading at an inexpensive valuation; even a cheap valuation should our hypothesis that the stock is structurally re-rating upwards turn out to be true.</li>
</ul>


We believe TSMC represents defensive exposure to AI for investors concerned that many other AI-related stocks' valuations may be too high.
While one may think TSMC seems too obvious as a play, we note that the stock is up only 4.5% over the last six months.
We view TSMC as trading at an inexpensive valuation; even a cheap valuation should our hypothesis that the stock is structurally re-rating upwards turn out to be true.


TSMC: Defensive AI Play in Long Upward Re-Rating Trend?

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: SK Hynix Boosts Optimism for Memory; Intel, Mediatek, Microsoft, UMC Key Events

A strong outlook from TSMC and SK Hynix's return to op profit have boosted Taiwan tech; Why Microsoft's Copilot will accelerate demand for DRAM;...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions. Intel might ramp up its 20A/18A ahead of TSMC 2nm...

Andrew Lu

Sox Index Broke New High; Nov US SEMI Equipment and Oct SIA Sales Showed Y/Y Improvement

As expected last month, Sox Index Broke New High; Nov US SEMI Equipment billings and Oct SIA Sales Showed Y/Y Improvement

Andrew Lu

MediaTek (2454.TT): The WiFi 7 Chip Competition Is Likely to Become Fierce in 2024.

Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F. In 2024, MediaTek aims to potentially supplying WiFi 7 chips to...

Patrick Liao

TSMC: Defensive AI Play in Long Upward Re-Rating Trend?

We view TSMC as trading at an inexpensive valuation; even a cheap valuation should our hypothesis that the stock is structurally re-rating upwards...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: SK Hynix Boosts Optimism for Memory; Intel, Mediatek, Microsoft, UMC Key Events

​A strong outlook from TSMC and SK Hynix's return to op profit have boosted Taiwan tech; Why Microsoft's Copilot will accelerate demand for DRAM;...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions. Intel might ramp up its 20A/18A ahead of TSMC 2nm...

Andrew Lu

Sox Index Broke New High; Nov US SEMI Equipment and Oct SIA Sales Showed Y/Y Improvement

As expected last month, Sox Index Broke New High; Nov US SEMI Equipment billings and Oct SIA Sales Showed Y/Y Improvement

Andrew Lu

MediaTek (2454.TT): The WiFi 7 Chip Competition Is Likely to Become Fierce in 2024.

Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F. ​In 2024, MediaTek aims to potentially supplying WiFi 7 chips to...

Patrick Liao

TSMC: Defensive AI Play in Long Upward Re-Rating Trend?

We view TSMC as trading at an inexpensive valuation; even a cheap valuation should our hypothesis that the stock is structurally re-rating upwards...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

A strong outlook from TSMC and SK Hynix's return to op profit have boosted Taiwan tech; Why Microsoft's Copilot will accelerate demand for DRAM;...

Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F. In 2024, MediaTek aims to potentially supplying WiFi 7 chips to...