Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC's N2 technology is currently undergoing verification for a 256Mb SRAM, and it will be implemented in Hsinchu and Kaohsiung, Taiwan.</li>
<li>The TSMC N3 technology capacity was 65kwpm in 3Q23, and the current version is N3B, which were adopted by Apple for the iPhone 15 this year.</li>
<li>Both N3E and N2 only have 20 layers EUV masks.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's N2 technology is currently undergoing verification for a 256Mb SRAM, and it will be implemented in Hsinchu and Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
The TSMC N3 technology capacity was 65kwpm in 3Q23, and the current version is N3B, which were adopted by Apple for the iPhone 15 this year.
Both N3E and N2 only have 20 layers EUV masks.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): N2 Technology Is Scheduled in 2025F.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>TSMC: 7.4% Premium -- Previous Short Has Worked, Now Wait For Better Levels</li>
<li>ChipMOS: -2.0% Discount -- Good Level to Go Long the Spread</li>
<li>CHT: -1.2% Discount -- Good Level to Go Long the Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: 7.4% Premium -- Previous Short Has Worked, Now Wait For Better Levels
ChipMOS: -2.0% Discount -- Good Level to Go Long the Spread
CHT: -1.2% Discount -- Good Level to Go Long the Spread


Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Slumps; CHT & ChipMOS at Rare Opportunity Levels

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We believe there is significant evidence that global equities (MSCI ACWI) have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. Buys highlighted in global Technology, Discretionary, Real Estate, and Steel/Mining.</li>
<li>We discussed in our prior Int'l Compass (11/2/23) how the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency) was bullish, and a potent rally has ensued. We expect more upside ahead.</li>
<li>Now getting bullish 3+ month downtrend reversals and false breakdowns in the EURO STOXX 50, ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), MSCI EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US). Major risk-on signals everywhere.</li>
</ul>


We believe there is significant evidence that global equities (MSCI ACWI) have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. Buys highlighted in global Technology, Discretionary, Real Estate, and Steel/Mining.
We discussed in our prior Int'l Compass (11/2/23) how the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency) was bullish, and a potent rally has ensued. We expect more upside ahead.
Now getting bullish 3+ month downtrend reversals and false breakdowns in the EURO STOXX 50, ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), MSCI EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US). Major risk-on signals everywhere.


Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Earnings season wrapping up -- Hon Hai &amp; Asustek recently reported... Some AI names rallied hard but our Nvidia L/S trade still working</li>
<li>Hon Hai’s margin expansion story is finally starting to be realized. Stock's perceived political risk could be an opportunity.</li>
<li>How Asustek plans to take the lead globally in AI PCs; Gaming PCs will be the first key battleground. MSI could be an interesting play on Asustek's recent strong performance.</li>
</ul>


Earnings season wrapping up -- Hon Hai &amp; Asustek recently reported... Some AI names rallied hard but our Nvidia L/S trade still working
Hon Hai’s margin expansion story is finally starting to be realized. Stock's perceived political risk could be an opportunity.
How Asustek plans to take the lead globally in AI PCs; Gaming PCs will be the first key battleground. MSI could be an interesting play on Asustek's recent strong performance.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: AI Names Rally But Nvidia Long/Short Still Working; Hon Hai & Asustek Take-Aways

<ul>
<li>TSMC's ADR premium is 10.4%, this is a decent level to short it based on the historical trading range.</li>
<li>UMC's ADR premium is near a good level to short the spread but one should wait for it to rise above 1.5% in our view.</li>
<li>UMC ADR short interest continues to trend higher; TSMC ADR short interest continues to fall.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's ADR premium is 10.4%, this is a decent level to short it based on the historical trading range.
UMC's ADR premium is near a good level to short the spread but one should wait for it to rise above 1.5% in our view.
UMC ADR short interest continues to trend higher; TSMC ADR short interest continues to fall.


Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Spread at Decent Short Level; UMC ADR Short Interest Soaring

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): N2 Technology Is Scheduled in 2025F.

TSMC's N2 technology is currently undergoing verification for a 256Mb SRAM. TSMC N3 technology capacity was 65kwpm in 3Q23. The current version is...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Slumps; CHT & ChipMOS at Rare Opportunity Levels

In this piece we provide our long and short levels for each dual-listing spread. ChipMOS and CHT spreads are at historically rare levels.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

There is significant evidence that global equities $ACWI have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. It all started when we discussed that the...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Tech Weekly: AI Names Rally But Nvidia Long/Short Still Working; Hon Hai & Asustek Take-Aways

Also how Asustek plans to take the lead globally in AI PCs; Gaming PCs will be the first key battleground. MSI could be an interesting play on...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Spread at Decent Short Level; UMC ADR Short Interest Soaring

TSMC's ADR premium is 10.4%, this is a decent level to short it based on the historical trading range. Short interest in TSMC ADRs has continued to...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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