Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>To merge with Siltronic has reached to 95% in probability for GlobalWafers now. Our target price for GlobalWafers doesn’t change at NT$880~960 and $1,200 if it finally past.  </li>
<li>Chinese government requested that GlobalWafers has to spin off its Denmark’s subsidiary 8” float zone (FZ) wafer within no more than 9 months at most.</li>
<li>Currently, Siltronic is delivering a GM of 25.6~32% during 1Q~3Q in 2021, which is competitive to Sumco, Shin Etsu. However, it shall be able to improve the GM further.</li>
</ul>


To merge with Siltronic has reached to 95% in probability for GlobalWafers now. Our target price for GlobalWafers doesn’t change at NT$880~960 and $1,200 if it finally past.  
Chinese government requested that GlobalWafers has to spin off its Denmark’s subsidiary 8” float zone (FZ) wafer within no more than 9 months at most.
Currently, Siltronic is delivering a GM of 25.6~32% during 1Q~3Q in 2021, which is competitive to Sumco, Shin Etsu. However, it shall be able to improve the GM further.


GlobalWafers (6488.TT): The Last Step to Go for Siltronic (WAF GR) Mergence

<ul>
<li>In our estimate, the 4Q21/1Q22 revenue/GM is about NT$127.6bn/47.5% and NT$136bn/47.5% respectively. </li>
<li>We forecast MediaTek to ship 4G/5G for ~355mn/220nm chipsets in 2022 respectively. </li>
<li>Besides Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi and Honor, MediaTek is shipping for a few thousand sets of Dimensity 9000 to Samsung in 1H22. </li>
</ul>


In our estimate, the 4Q21/1Q22 revenue/GM is about NT$127.6bn/47.5% and NT$136bn/47.5% respectively. 
We forecast MediaTek to ship 4G/5G for ~355mn/220nm chipsets in 2022 respectively. 
Besides Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi and Honor, MediaTek is shipping for a few thousand sets of Dimensity 9000 to Samsung in 1H22. 


MediaTek (2454.TT): 1Q22 Preview-A Little Bit Higher in Revenue Outlook

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>CEO Hashimoto told the <em>Nikkei</em> newspaper that customers are ordering silicon wafers at higher prices before they are made, even as production capacity is being increased.</li>
<li>SEMI and TSMC announcements point to rising wafer demand for at least another two years. SUMCO's expansion plans suggest at least three years.</li>
<li>We continue to recommend buying into the current weakness for the medium to long term.</li>
</ul>


CEO Hashimoto told the Nikkei newspaper that customers are ordering silicon wafers at higher prices before they are made, even as production capacity is being increased.
SEMI and TSMC announcements point to rising wafer demand for at least another two years. SUMCO's expansion plans suggest at least three years.
We continue to recommend buying into the current weakness for the medium to long term.


SUMCO (3436 JP): CEO Describes Tight Supply, Rising Prices

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC posted results at or above the top end of its guidance ranges for 4Q21 at the revenue, GPM and OPM levels. </li>
<li>Guidance for 1Q22 was also punchy with the midpoint of revenue guidance 6.0% above consensus and mid to high 20s revenue growth guidance for the year. </li>
<li>We still suspect however that momentum could actually accelerate through the year.</li>
</ul>


TSMC posted results at or above the top end of its guidance ranges for 4Q21 at the revenue, GPM and OPM levels. 
Guidance for 1Q22 was also punchy with the midpoint of revenue guidance 6.0% above consensus and mid to high 20s revenue growth guidance for the year. 
We still suspect however that momentum could actually accelerate through the year.


Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>November semiconductor revenues set a record for the highest shipment month in the history of the industry</li>
<li>Year-To-Date revenues and unit shipments, excluding December, are still higher than any full year in the industry's history</li>
<li>There is plenty of room for this to continue, barring a global economic meltdown</li>
</ul>


November semiconductor revenues set a record for the highest shipment month in the history of the industry
Year-To-Date revenues and unit shipments, excluding December, are still higher than any full year in the industry's history
There is plenty of room for this to continue, barring a global economic meltdown


November Semiconductors Once Again Set Records

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

GlobalWafers (6488.TT): The Last Step to Go for Siltronic (WAF GR) Mergence

GlobalWafers to merge with Siltronic has reached to 95% in probability now. Our target price for GlobalWafers doesn’t change at NT$880~960, and it...

Patrick Liao

MediaTek (2454.TT): 1Q22 Preview-A Little Bit Higher in Revenue Outlook

In our estimate, the 4Q21/1Q22 revenue/GM is about NT$127.6bn/47.5% and NT$136Bn/47.5% respectively. We forecast MediaTek to ship 4G/5G for ~355mn...

Patrick Liao

SUMCO (3436 JP): CEO Describes Tight Supply, Rising Prices

Tight supply and rising prices for silicon wafers points to sales growth and margin expansion for at least 2-3 years. Capacity expansion lagging...

Scott Foster

TSMC – Exceptional as Usual

TSMC guidance for 1Q22 was also punchy with the midpoint of revenue guidance 6.0% above consensus and mid to high 20s revenue growth guidance for...

Mio Kato

November Semiconductors Once Again Set Records

The semiconductor market once again set records in November, with 2021 revenues and unit shipments out-stripping all prior record years in its...

Jim Handy

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