Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Financials sector allocations continue to move higher.  Average holding weights stand at 18.78%, the highest level since early 2020 and well up from the lows of 15.06% in Sep 2020</li>
<li>Indonesia, Singapore, India and Thailand were responsible for the moves higher, with China &amp; HK not participating in the upturn. </li>
<li>AIA Group Ltd is the most widely held stock.  China Merchants Bank and Bank Central Asia the key overweights. China Construction Bank and ICBC are largely avoided by Asian investors.</li>
</ul>


Financials sector allocations continue to move higher.  Average holding weights stand at 18.78%, the highest level since early 2020 and well up from the lows of 15.06% in Sep 2020
Indonesia, Singapore, India and Thailand were responsible for the moves higher, with China &amp; HK not participating in the upturn. 
AIA Group Ltd is the most widely held stock.  China Merchants Bank and Bank Central Asia the key overweights. China Construction Bank and ICBC are largely avoided by Asian investors.


Asia Ex-Japan:  Financials Recovery Leaves China Behind

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lenovo-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13359:1" rel="noopener">Lenovo (992 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest outflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-elong-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd (780 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.
The largest inflows will be on Alibaba Group (9988 HK), JD.com Inc. (9618 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Nongfu Spring (9633 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK) and Lenovo (992 HK). 
The largest outflows will be on HSBC Holdings (5 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), China Construction Bank H (939 HK) and Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd (780 HK).


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: March Rebalance Flows Post Capping

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The pilot launch of the e-CNY, China’s sovereign digital currency effectively competes with domestic mobile payment apps including Alipay, WeChat and Weixin Pay; the e-CNY registered 261m downloads in 2021</li>
<li>Seven domestic commercial banks are included as the e-CNY’s operators, all of which offer extensive branch networks and large bases of retail customers to accelerate the digital currency’s distribution</li>
<li>The e-CNY’s broader digital payments usage should erode Alipay, WeChat and Weixin Pay market shares; yet we believe that the competitive threat is seemingly well discounted in Alibaba share valuations</li>
</ul>


The pilot launch of the e-CNY, China’s sovereign digital currency effectively competes with domestic mobile payment apps including Alipay, WeChat and Weixin Pay; the e-CNY registered 261m downloads in 2021
Seven domestic commercial banks are included as the e-CNY’s operators, all of which offer extensive branch networks and large bases of retail customers to accelerate the digital currency’s distribution
The e-CNY’s broader digital payments usage should erode Alipay, WeChat and Weixin Pay market shares; yet we believe that the competitive threat is seemingly well discounted in Alibaba share valuations


China’s Central Bank Digital Currency; Is It a Major Threat to Non-Bank Digital Payment Providers?

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

China Merchants Bank H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Competitor Call Reveals Numerous Additional Risks Which Will Weigh On Results. </li>
<li>No Clarity On Go Forward Core Bottom-Line, Especially Gains and Loss Provisions. </li>
<li>Reserve to NPLs Looks Overstated, as WMP and Securities Are Included In Loan Reserves. </li>
</ul>



Competitor Call Reveals Numerous Additional Risks Which Will Weigh On Results. 
No Clarity On Go Forward Core Bottom-Line, Especially Gains and Loss Provisions. 
Reserve to NPLs Looks Overstated, as WMP and Securities Are Included In Loan Reserves. 


China Merchants Bank – Accelerating Risk

<ul>
<li>
Default: Kaisa Group Holdings (1638.HK) [Kaisa] allegedly failed to pay its USD 400 mn bond;</li>
<li>
Obfuscation On F/S: Part of the problem with Kaisa is how the financial statements broken out, which, in our view, obfuscated the true nature of liquidity at Kaisa; and</li>
<li>
Other Creditors: In addition to offshore bondholders, Kaisa’s main banks include: Bank of China (3988.HK); ICBC (1398.HK); Ping An Bank (000001.CH); China Minsheng Bank (1988.HK); and China CITIC Bank (998.HK).</li>
</ul>



Default: Kaisa Group Holdings (1638.HK) [Kaisa] allegedly failed to pay its USD 400 mn bond;

Obfuscation On F/S: Part of the problem with Kaisa is how the financial statements broken out, which, in our view, obfuscated the true nature of liquidity at Kaisa; and

Other Creditors: In addition to offshore bondholders, Kaisa’s main banks include: Bank of China (3988.HK); ICBC (1398.HK); Ping An Bank (000001.CH); China Minsheng Bank (1988.HK); and China CITIC Bank (998.HK).


Kaisa Group Holdings – Second Domino Falls

China

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund underwriting, foreign currency settlement, and other services. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

ICBC (H) (1398 HK)

Asia Ex-Japan: Financials Recovery Leaves China Behind

Financials exposure moves higher. Active weights hit their highest level since early 2020. Indonesia, Singapore and India Financials were the...

Steven Holden

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: March Rebalance Flows Post Capping

The March rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indexes will use todays closing price to cap the stocks. The one-way trade across the HS, HSCEI and...

Brian Freitas

China’s Central Bank Digital Currency; Is It a Major Threat to Non-Bank Digital Payment Providers?

The digital yuan's growth in digital payments usage could erode Alipay and Tencent app market shares; yet we think the competitive threat is...

Victor Galliano

China Merchants Bank – Accelerating Risk

CHINA MERCHANTS BANK: A discussion over the use of gains and a drop in loss provisions during 3Q21 would have been a better use of time. CMB’s core...

Thomas J. Monaco

Kaisa Group Holdings – Second Domino Falls

KAISA: Kaisa allegedly failed to pay its USD 400 mn bond. Part of the problem with Kaisa is how the financial statements broken out, which, in our...

Thomas J. Monaco

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)