Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Last week, China's RmbB12tn debt swap plan fall short of investors' expectations. The pattern of trying to control the release of stimulus and manage the expectations is obvious;</li>
<li>We notice that the government has injected more-than-required liquidity to the bank system. Such magnitude can only be explained by preparation for a long, drawn-out war; </li>
<li>MOF's injection to banks to beef up capital adequacy ratio likely indicates the amount of stimulus that is about to happen to reflate the balance sheets of the local governments.</li>
</ul>


Last week, China's RmbB12tn debt swap plan fall short of investors' expectations. The pattern of trying to control the release of stimulus and manage the expectations is obvious;
We notice that the government has injected more-than-required liquidity to the bank system. Such magnitude can only be explained by preparation for a long, drawn-out war; 
MOF's injection to banks to beef up capital adequacy ratio likely indicates the amount of stimulus that is about to happen to reflate the balance sheets of the local governments.


China Has Stockpiled Arsenals to Meet Trump's Tariff War

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$10.9bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Banks were a big buy.</li>
<li>The more I watch, the more I think the last few months have had serious national team buying of banks and energy, perhaps ahead of shareholder return policy changes.</li>
<li>But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows - national team and otherwise.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$10.9bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Banks were a big buy.
The more I watch, the more I think the last few months have had serious national team buying of banks and energy, perhaps ahead of shareholder return policy changes.
But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows - national team and otherwise.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jul 2024); SOE Bank and SOE Petro-Energy Flows Dominate

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND's consecutive buying streak ended on Monday 25-March, then started again. 20 days straight net buying. NORTHBOUND saw big inflows Friday. A record day I believe.</li>
<li>HK stocks bounced VERY hard. Seemed like big allocation trade. HSCEI +8.7% vs CSI300 +1.2%. In H/A Pairs, liquid pairs saw Hs outperform their A by 4+% on average.</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND's consecutive buying streak ended on Monday 25-March, then started again. 20 days straight net buying. NORTHBOUND saw big inflows Friday. A record day I believe.
HK stocks bounced VERY hard. Seemed like big allocation trade. HSCEI +8.7% vs CSI300 +1.2%. In H/A Pairs, liquid pairs saw Hs outperform their A by 4+% on average.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 3 May 2024):  Minimal Moves in 2-Day Week

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

<ul>
<li>We looked at HSBC and ICBC to consider relative vol surfaces </li>
<li>We evaluate relative risks of credit deterioration in China on both stocks</li>
<li>We suggest a relative value vol trade that offers good risk reward in various scenarios</li>
</ul>


We looked at HSBC and ICBC to consider relative vol surfaces 
We evaluate relative risks of credit deterioration in China on both stocks
We suggest a relative value vol trade that offers good risk reward in various scenarios


EQD | HSBA Vs ICBC (5 HK,1398 HK): Trade a Relative Value Vol Spread

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>Major markets are in a waiting game with vols not monetizing yet implied holding up with US FOMC and the election this week. </li>
<li>Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) , Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) have elevated implied vols vs average historical observations for November.</li>
<li>November typically sees strong price performance, particularly in the 3rd week, leading to softer historic vols in that time frame. </li>
</ul>


Major markets are in a waiting game with vols not monetizing yet implied holding up with US FOMC and the election this week. 
Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) , Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) have elevated implied vols vs average historical observations for November.
November typically sees strong price performance, particularly in the 3rd week, leading to softer historic vols in that time frame. 


EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

China

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund underwriting, foreign currency settlement, and other services. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

ICBC (H) (1398 HK)

China Has Stockpiled Arsenals to Meet Trump's Tariff War

China's government debt swap plan disappoints investors, but more stimulus is likely as we read from the more-than-adequate capital adequacy...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jul 2024); SOE Bank and SOE Petro-Energy Flows Dominate

SOUTHBOUND flows this week were net positive every day. SOE Banks and SOE Energy names absolutely dominated the net buy list. The rest is kind of a...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 3 May 2024): Minimal Moves in 2-Day Week

AH Premia were mixed this past 2-day week. High premia saw As outperform. Low premia saw Hs outperform. HK stocks boomed Thurs/Fri so As may boom...

Travis Lundy

EQD | HSBA Vs ICBC (5 HK,1398 HK): Trade a Relative Value Vol Spread

A relative value vol trade within the Chinese Banking sector. We look at a trade HSBC and ICBC and consider a negative real estate scenario.

Simon Harris

EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...

John Ley

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Has Stockpiled Arsenals to Meet Trump's Tariff War

​China's government debt swap plan disappoints investors, but more stimulus is likely as we read from the more-than-adequate capital adequacy...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jul 2024); SOE Bank and SOE Petro-Energy Flows Dominate

SOUTHBOUND flows this week were net positive every day. SOE Banks and SOE Energy names absolutely dominated the net buy list. The rest is kind of a...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 3 May 2024): Minimal Moves in 2-Day Week

AH Premia were mixed this past 2-day week. High premia saw As outperform. Low premia saw Hs outperform. HK stocks boomed Thurs/Fri so As may boom...

Travis Lundy

EQD | HSBA Vs ICBC (5 HK,1398 HK): Trade a Relative Value Vol Spread

A relative value vol trade within the Chinese Banking sector. We look at a trade HSBC and ICBC and consider a negative real estate scenario.

Simon Harris

EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

​Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...

John Ley

China's government debt swap plan disappoints investors, but more stimulus is likely as we read from the more-than-adequate capital adequacy...

Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...