China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In the past four quarters, Chinese companies bought 65+ ArF (Argon Fluoride) Immersion lithography machines, some capable of overlay precision as fine as 1.5nm overlay for Self-Aligned Double/Quadruple/Octuple Patterning (SAD/Q/OP);</li>
<li>The race is between Chinese foundries to put these lithography machines to meet the raging demand of AI, which looks optimistic in the medium term, despite short-term challenges;</li>
<li>The race is also among the global semiconductor industry to meet the demand for testing the limit of AI's scaling law. So far the balance tips in disfavor of China. </li>
</ul>


In the past four quarters, Chinese companies bought 65+ ArF (Argon Fluoride) Immersion lithography machines, some capable of overlay precision as fine as 1.5nm overlay for Self-Aligned Double/Quadruple/Octuple Patterning (SAD/Q/OP);
The race is between Chinese foundries to put these lithography machines to meet the raging demand of AI, which looks optimistic in the medium term, despite short-term challenges;
The race is also among the global semiconductor industry to meet the demand for testing the limit of AI's scaling law. So far the balance tips in disfavor of China. 


China's Near-Term Semiconductor Bottleneck Isn't ASML

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q423 revenues of $2.49 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint, up 3.6% QoQ but down 15.6% YoY. Net income was $583 million, down $158 million QoQ.</li>
<li>Current quarter guidance of $2.3 billion, down 8% QoQ and also down around 5% YoY</li>
<li>Interesting Q&amp;A discussion on backlog. KLAC's order book is risker than their peers due to their shorter lead times. Something to watch...</li>
</ul>


Q423 revenues of $2.49 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint, up 3.6% QoQ but down 15.6% YoY. Net income was $583 million, down $158 million QoQ.
Current quarter guidance of $2.3 billion, down 8% QoQ and also down around 5% YoY
Interesting Q&amp;A discussion on backlog. KLAC's order book is risker than their peers due to their shorter lead times. Something to watch...


Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC started this season’s earnings with a strong result. Shares rallied immensely on this print, and it’s justified. In almost every metric, TSMC came out ahead.</li>
<li>
TSMC had a revenue, operating income, and gross margin beat and guided above the street.
</li>
<li>
Now let’s break out revenue by node and platform for a further look into the results of the world’s largest foundry.
</li>
</ul>


TSMC started this season’s earnings with a strong result. Shares rallied immensely on this print, and it’s justified. In almost every metric, TSMC came out ahead.

TSMC had a revenue, operating income, and gross margin beat and guided above the street.


Now let’s break out revenue by node and platform for a further look into the results of the world’s largest foundry.



TSMC, SMCI, Texas Instruments, AWE, ASML, and LRCX

<ul>
<li>ASML reported Q423 revenues of €7.2 billion, up 7.5% QoQ and ~€100 million above the guided midpoint for the quarter.</li>
<li>ASML guided Q124 at €5.25 billion, down a very significant 27% sequentially. Also reiterated their previous forecast for 2024 revenues to be remain flat with 2023</li>
<li>ASML shares surged &gt;8% in overnight trading. What's going on here?</li>
</ul>


ASML reported Q423 revenues of €7.2 billion, up 7.5% QoQ and ~€100 million above the guided midpoint for the quarter.
ASML guided Q124 at €5.25 billion, down a very significant 27% sequentially. Also reiterated their previous forecast for 2024 revenues to be remain flat with 2023
ASML shares surged &gt;8% in overnight trading. What's going on here?


ASML Guides Q124 Down 27% QoQ, Shares Surge >8%. What Gives?

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Applied guided -1% q/q and Lam Research guided 8% q/q sales growth, below N.A. front end semi equipment billings' 12% q/q growth, room for analysts to raise their 4Q23E sales. </li>
<li>N.A. front end equipment sales reached US$3.775bn, up 1% m/m, down 5% y/y but back end equipment billings reached US$222mn in December, down 8% m/m and down 9% y/y.</li>
<li>Better than equipment vendors, WSTS/SIA reported November sales of US$48bn, up 3% m/m and up 5% y/y (the first month to turn positive after 14 months of consecutive y/y decline)</li>
</ul>


Applied guided -1% q/q and Lam Research guided 8% q/q sales growth, below N.A. front end semi equipment billings' 12% q/q growth, room for analysts to raise their 4Q23E sales. 
N.A. front end equipment sales reached US$3.775bn, up 1% m/m, down 5% y/y but back end equipment billings reached US$222mn in December, down 8% m/m and down 9% y/y.
Better than equipment vendors, WSTS/SIA reported November sales of US$48bn, up 3% m/m and up 5% y/y (the first month to turn positive after 14 months of consecutive y/y decline)


From Dec N.A. SEMI Equipment Billings to Expect a Sales Raise for Applied Materials and Lam Research

United States

Lam Research Corporation manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the making of integrated circuits.  The Company's products are used to deposit special films on a silicon wafer and etch away portions of various films to create a circuit design.  Lam sells its products around the world.

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Lam Research (LRCX US)

China's Near-Term Semiconductor Bottleneck Isn't ASML

China's semiconductor bottleneck isn't lithography tools in the near term, it is etchers. We see ST pressure, MT opportunity and LT challenge from...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

KLAC. Looks a Lot Like LRCX!

Q423 $2.49 billion, +3.6% QoQ, -15.6% YoY. Net income was $583 million, down $158 million QoQ. Q124 guidance of $2.3 billion, -8% QoQ -5% YoY,...

William Keating

TSMC, SMCI, Texas Instruments, AWE, ASML, and LRCX

Its the first week of earnings, and it's already a busy one. TSMC started this season’s earnings with a strong result. Shares rallied immensely on...

Fabricated Knowledge

ASML Guides Q124 Down 27% QoQ, Shares Surge >8%. What Gives?

Q423 revenues of €7.2 billion, + 7.5% QoQ. Q124 guided at €5.25 billion, - 27% QoQ. Reiterated '24 guidance flat YoY. Share surge >8% overnight....

William Keating

From Dec N.A. SEMI Equipment Billings to Expect a Sales Raise for Applied Materials and Lam Research

From Dec N.A. SEMI Equipment Billings to Expect a Sales Raise for Applied Materials and Lam Research; Applied and Lam guided below 4Q23 N.A. front...

Andrew Lu

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