Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).</li>
<li>The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.</li>
<li>Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors</li>
</ul>


Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).
The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.
Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors


Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>ADRs are traded at a significant premium when the foreign room for underlying shares is exhausted. This is the pattern that KT showed in 2018.</li>
<li>SKT's foreign room is currently 1.85%. That is, the burnout rate is 98.15%. Only about 2M shares need to be burned to hit bottom. This is 0.91% of SO.</li>
<li>The shortage of SKT ADRs is likely to intensify, which in turn suggests that the ADR premium may rise further.</li>
</ul>


ADRs are traded at a significant premium when the foreign room for underlying shares is exhausted. This is the pattern that KT showed in 2018.
SKT's foreign room is currently 1.85%. That is, the burnout rate is 98.15%. Only about 2M shares need to be burned to hit bottom. This is 0.91% of SO.
The shortage of SKT ADRs is likely to intensify, which in turn suggests that the ADR premium may rise further.


Trading Opportunity Coming on SK Telecom ADR Premium

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>On 27 April, Bloomberg reported that KT Corp is considering a partial sale of its newly created cloud business unit.</li>
<li>It is estimated that a sale of about 20% stake in KT Cloud could raise approximately $400 million, which would value KT Cloud business at $2 billion.</li>
<li>A key reason why the major telcos' share prices were down today was because of reports that the incoming Yoon Seok-Yeol administration is pressuring telcos to lower 5G tariff rates.</li>
</ul>


On 27 April, Bloomberg reported that KT Corp is considering a partial sale of its newly created cloud business unit.
It is estimated that a sale of about 20% stake in KT Cloud could raise approximately $400 million, which would value KT Cloud business at $2 billion.
A key reason why the major telcos' share prices were down today was because of reports that the incoming Yoon Seok-Yeol administration is pressuring telcos to lower 5G tariff rates.


KT Considering a Partial Sale of Its Cloud Business & Concerns About Tariff Rate Cut for 5G Services

<ul>
<li>Kakao Pay's six months end of the lock-up period comes up on 3 May, which could further put negative pressure on its share price. </li>
<li>Other factors including heightened competition, lack of margin improvement in 2021, and lifting nearly all social distancing measures in Korea are likely to further negatively impact Kakao Pay. </li>
<li>We expect additional 20 to 30%+ downside risk for Kakao Pay from current levels over the next 6-12 months. </li>
</ul>


Kakao Pay's six months end of the lock-up period comes up on 3 May, which could further put negative pressure on its share price. 
Other factors including heightened competition, lack of margin improvement in 2021, and lifting nearly all social distancing measures in Korea are likely to further negatively impact Kakao Pay. 
We expect additional 20 to 30%+ downside risk for Kakao Pay from current levels over the next 6-12 months. 


Kakao Pay: End of 6 Months Lock-Up Period Could Further Put Negative Pressure on Share Price

Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Viva Republica (Toss), one of the largest fintech companies in Korea, is expected to become the first decacorn in Korea in 2Q 2022. </li>
<li>Toss is expected to have a value range of 10 trillion won to 15 trillion won in the upcoming funding round in 2Q 2022. </li>
<li>Kakao Bank has P/S multiple of 20.2x in 2021. Applying this multiple on Viva Republica's sales of 781 billion won, this would imply a valuation of 15.8 trillion won. </li>
</ul>


Viva Republica (Toss), one of the largest fintech companies in Korea, is expected to become the first decacorn in Korea in 2Q 2022. 
Toss is expected to have a value range of 10 trillion won to 15 trillion won in the upcoming funding round in 2Q 2022. 
Kakao Bank has P/S multiple of 20.2x in 2021. Applying this multiple on Viva Republica's sales of 781 billion won, this would imply a valuation of 15.8 trillion won. 


Viva Republica (Toss): To Become the First Decacorn in Korea

South Korea

LG Uplus Corp., an affiliate of LG Group, provides a wide range of personal communications services (PCS) using code division multiple access (CDMA) technology.  The Company offers call forwarding, call and data transfer, call waiting, voice mail, Internet-phone, prepaid call, and authentication text-to-speech (TTS) services.

KINX INC is the Internet linkage and line adapter service providing firm.  The Company provides IX and Internet Data Center service to the network service providers to reduce the traffic and to contruct Internet infrastructure.  KINX also provides VoIP service.

Sejong Telecom, Inc. develops and provides various telecom service.  The Company's main service include international phone call, Internet phone call, and long distance call.

SK Telecom Co., Ltd. is a Korean mobile and telecommunications operator. The Company provides cellular voice, wireless data, and wireless internet services. SK Telecom also offers fixed line services and platform services.

ECS Telecom Co.,Ltd. is a provider of communication products and services.  The company offers private branch exchange (PBX), IP telephony, contact center solution, and trading system.

HYBE Co., Ltd. operates as an entertainment company. The Company provides music production, album distribution, entertainers management, publicity, planning, training, and other services. HYBE also makes television shows.

Netmarble Corporation develops and publishes mobile games. The Company develops and publishes casual games, action, sports games, strategy, simulation games, and social casino games. Netmarble offers services worldwide.

Pearl Abyss Corp. operates as a computer games making company. The Company offers games development, games exporting, and other services. Pearl Abyss serves customers worldwide.

KRTnet Corporation provides radio relay services for mobile phone companies by building and maintaining relay station.  The Company also manufactures telecommunication equipment used for radio relay station.

Kakao Games Corp. operates as a multiply platform gaming company. The Company provides mobile games, computer games, virtual reality games, and other related products. Kakao Games markets its products worldwide.

Telekom Malaysia Berhad establishes, provides, and maintains telecommunication and related services. Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides payphone network, mobile telecommunication, public telephone, and leasing of optical fiber telecommunication system services. Telekom also manages and operates Kuala Lumpur Tower and provides intelligent security services.

Tata Communications Limited provides telecommunications services. The Company provides international telephone, telex and telegraphy services, international maritime mobile communications, INTELSAT business service and bureau fax and t-fax services. Tata Communications also provides internet access, electronic mail and electronic data interchange services.

Telecom Italia S.p.A., through subsidiaries, offers fixed line and mobile telephone and data transmission services in Italy and abroad.  The Company offers local and long-distance telephone, satellite communications, Internet access, and teleconferencing services.

Telefonica Deutschland Holding AG provides telecommunications services in Germany. The Company offers fixed-line and mobile telephone, Internet, and data transmission services to residential and corporate customers.

Telekom Austria AG offers telecommunications services.  The Company offers fixed -line and mobile telephone, Internet access, and data transmission services. Telekom Austria also offers Internet access and mobile services in Liechtenstein , Slovenia, Bulgaria, Belarus and Croatia.

Hellenic Telecommunications Organization S.A. (OTE S.A.) provides telecommunications services. The Company offers fixed-line television and mobile telecommunication services including voice, broadband, data and leased lines. OTE S.A. serves the audio-visual, communications, industrial, and residential industries as well as public customers.

Turk Telekomunikasyon A.S. is an integrated telecommunications services provider for businesses and individuals. The Company offers land and mobile telecommunications solutions, as well as Internet services.

True Corporation PCL is an integrated telecommunications provider. The Company offers a wide range of voice, video, and data services, including dial-up and broadband Internet services, pay television, fixed-line phone, online games, and mobile phone services.

HKT Trust and HKT Ltd trade together as a stapled security.  HKT Ltd provides telecommunications services.  The Company's business provides telecommunications products and services including local telephony services, local data and broadband services, international telecommunications services, and other services.

Spark New Zealand Limited (formerly Telecom Corporation of New Zealand Limited) provides digital communications, entertainment and IT services over its networks and the Cloud to New Zealanders and businesses. The Company's strategy is focused on mobility, data and effortless service, and cost.

KT Corporation provides telecommunication services including local, long distance, and international calling, satellite communication, data transmission, and wireless telephone services in South Korea.  The Company also offers network portal and high-speed Internet access services using asymmetric digital subscriber lines (ADSLs).

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KT Corp (030200 KS)

Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Despite the intact downtrend on Japan's TOPIX, relative strength is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend; this tells us Japan is emerging as...

Vermilion Research

Trading Opportunity Coming on SK Telecom ADR Premium

This post examines the trading opportunities that will likely arise on SK Telecom's ADR premium to the underlying share.

Sanghyun Park

KT Considering a Partial Sale of Its Cloud Business & Concerns About Tariff Rate Cut for 5G Services

On 27 April, Bloomberg reported that KT Corp is considering a partial sale of its newly created cloud business unit. A 20% stake sale in KT Cloud...

Douglas Kim

Viva Republica (Toss): To Become the First Decacorn in Korea

Viva Republica (Toss), one of the largest fintech companies in Korea, is expected to become the first decacorn in Korea in 2Q 2022 with valuation...

Douglas Kim

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