Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Less than half the active Global managers in our analysis have exposure to Australian stocks, the lowest levels in over a decade.</li>
<li>Versus the MSCI ACWI benchmark, Australia is the 3rd largest underweight country holding globally, with sector-wide declines in ownership occurring over the last 6-months, headed by Materials.</li>
<li>Underweights are driven by BHP Group (BHP AU) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), with CSL Ltd (CSL AU) the most widely held stock in Australia.</li>
</ul>


Less than half the active Global managers in our analysis have exposure to Australian stocks, the lowest levels in over a decade.
Versus the MSCI ACWI benchmark, Australia is the 3rd largest underweight country holding globally, with sector-wide declines in ownership occurring over the last 6-months, headed by Materials.
Underweights are driven by BHP Group (BHP AU) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), with CSL Ltd (CSL AU) the most widely held stock in Australia.


Australia:  Underweight & Underowned as Allocations Slip to All-Time Lows.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Australian Pharmaceutical Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australian-pharmaceutical-industries-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19399:1" rel="noopener">Australian Pharmaceutical Industries (API AU)</a>'s Scheme Booklet is now <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02486907-3A587316?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>. The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 17 March with possible implementation on the 31 March.  </li>
<li>The Independent Expert has concluded this US$600mn Offer is fair and reasonable and in the best interest of Senex shareholders.</li>
<li>The Offer price is full. And trading very tight to terms.</li>
</ul>



Australian Pharmaceutical Industries (API AU)'s Scheme Booklet is now out. The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 17 March with possible implementation on the 31 March.  
The Independent Expert has concluded this US$600mn Offer is fair and reasonable and in the best interest of Senex shareholders.
The Offer price is full. And trading very tight to terms.


Aussie Pharma (API AU): Scheme Booklet Out. Meeting On The 17 March

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a> backs Blackstone's revised Offer of A$13.10/share in cash, from A$12.50 previously, and up from A$11.85/share initially.  </li>
<li>The endgame approaches for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP (BHP AU)</a> Unification trade. S&amp;P announced the S&amp;P/ASX upweight would be one-shot, as expected. Regulatory approvals are in. SARB has set BHP SJ as "domestic."</li>
<li>The Offeror slashes the Offer price for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/51-job-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:532:1" rel="noopener">51 Job (JOBS US)</a> by 27.6%, however, it's not clear how the new deal terms sidestep the regulator nor justify a reduction. </li>
</ul>



Crown Resorts (CWN AU) backs Blackstone's revised Offer of A$13.10/share in cash, from A$12.50 previously, and up from A$11.85/share initially.  
The endgame approaches for the BHP (BHP AU) Unification trade. S&amp;P announced the S&amp;P/ASX upweight would be one-shot, as expected. Regulatory approvals are in. SARB has set BHP SJ as "domestic."
The Offeror slashes the Offer price for 51 Job (JOBS US) by 27.6%, however, it's not clear how the new deal terms sidestep the regulator nor justify a reduction. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: BHP Group, Crown Resorts, 51job, Hitachi, Razer Inc

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<ul>
<li>As expected, S&amp;P DJI have announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a>'s weight in the S&amp;P/ASX indices will be increased all at once at the close of trading on 28 January. </li>
<li>We estimated passive S&amp;P/ASX trackers will need to buy over A$4bn of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> leading to a funding sell of that size on the other index constituents.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> has risen 25% from its lows in November. We expect most UK shareholders have finished selling shares and the one-shot inclusion could take the stock higher.</li>
</ul>


As expected, S&amp;P DJI have announced that BHP Group (BHP AU)'s weight in the S&amp;P/ASX indices will be increased all at once at the close of trading on 28 January. 
We estimated passive S&amp;P/ASX trackers will need to buy over A$4bn of BHP Group (BHP AU) leading to a funding sell of that size on the other index constituents.

BHP Group (BHP AU) has risen 25% from its lows in November. We expect most UK shareholders have finished selling shares and the one-shot inclusion could take the stock higher.


BHP Unification - ASX Upweight in One Shot

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woolworths-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:500:1" rel="noopener">Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU)</a>'s surprise takeover Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australian-pharmaceutical-industries-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19399:1" rel="noopener">Australian Pharmaceutical Industries (API AU)</a> last month is surpassed by its surprise decision to walk away.</li>
<li>This leaves <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wesfarmers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1104:1" rel="noopener">Wesfarmers Ltd (WES AU)</a> in the driving seat - provided the ACCC is satisfied competition is not impeded.</li>
<li>The cash consideration of $1.55 under Wesfarmers' Offer will be reduced by any permitted dividend. A final fully franked dividend of A$0.02/share has been paid.</li>
</ul>



Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU)'s surprise takeover Offer for Australian Pharmaceutical Industries (API AU) last month is surpassed by its surprise decision to walk away.
This leaves Wesfarmers Ltd (WES AU) in the driving seat - provided the ACCC is satisfied competition is not impeded.
The cash consideration of $1.55 under Wesfarmers' Offer will be reduced by any permitted dividend. A final fully franked dividend of A$0.02/share has been paid.


Aussie Pharma: Path Cleared For Wesfarmers As Woolies Walks.

Australia

Wesfarmers Ltd. owns retail chains, operates mines, writes insurance, manufactures and distributes industrial products, manufactures fertilizers and chemicals, and distributes liquefied petroleum gas and medical and industrial gases.

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Wesfarmers Ltd (WES AU)

Australia: Underweight & Underowned as Allocations Slip to All-Time Lows.

Less than half the active Global managers in our analysis have exposure to Australian stocks, the lowest levels in over a decade.

Steven Holden

Aussie Pharma (API AU): Scheme Booklet Out. Meeting On The 17 March

Trading super at a gross/annualised spread of 0.3%/2.8%. However, if you are a low-rate payer, who can reclaim the franking credits, there's may...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: BHP Group, Crown Resorts, 51job, Hitachi, Razer Inc

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

BHP Unification - ASX Upweight in One Shot

The BHP upweight in the ASX indices will be done all at once at the close on 28 January. This will mean A$4bn of BHP to buy and a funding sell on...

Brian Freitas

Aussie Pharma: Path Cleared For Wesfarmers As Woolies Walks.

Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 1.0%/4.6%. If you are a zero-rate taxpayer, or a low-rate payer, who can reclaim the franking credits,...

David Blennerhassett

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