HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

We view the FY21 (Year end Mar) result of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dongxiang-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1068:1" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang Group Co (3818 HK)</a> positively, despite a dividend payout ratio which is lower than expected. As we wrote in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-dongxiang-3818-hk-what-can-we-expect-from-the-final-result" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53174" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang (3818 HK): What Can We Expect from the Final Result?</a>, its sportswear business in China has recorded good turnaround, with gross profit soared 46.3% YoY and 27.9% HoH. Meanwhile, its investment business also registered an income of Rmb2.1bn for full-year, or Rmb759.7m for 2H21, up 88.7% YoY.Going forward, we expect CNDX's strategy to bring about further improvement in its sportswear business in China. It has also disclosed more names of listed equity that it hold both directly and indirectly and they are all of good quality, in our view. The stock is trading on 47% discount to book value which made up of 14% of net cash, 73% of investment portfolio and 13% of other net assets. Frankly, we think such valuation is too depressed and believe there is more upside room even after a 52% rally in share price YTD.

We view the FY21 (Year end Mar) result of China Dongxiang Group Co (3818 HK) positively, despite a dividend payout ratio which is lower than expected. As we wrote in China Dongxiang (3818 HK): What Can We Expect from the Final Result?, its sportswear business in China has recorded good turnaround, with gross profit soared 46.3% YoY and 27.9% HoH. Meanwhile, its investment business also registered an income of Rmb2.1bn for full-year, or Rmb759.7m for 2H21, up 88.7% YoY.Going forward, we expect CNDX's strategy to bring about further improvement in its sportswear business in China. It has also disclosed more names of listed equity that it hold both directly and indirectly and they are all of good quality, in our view. The stock is trading on 47% discount to book value which made up of 14% of net cash, 73% of investment portfolio and 13% of other net assets. Frankly, we think such valuation is too depressed and believe there is more upside room even after a 52% rally in share price YTD.

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Lower-Than-Expected Dividends but Still A Marvelous FY21

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Hygeia Healthcare Group / Equity Capital Markets

Warburg Pincus aims to raise around US$216m via selling 3.2% of Hygeia Healthcare. This won’t be the first selldown by Warburg. Despite having been listed just around a year ago, the stock has already seen two placements, both in Jan 2021, just after the lock-up expiry. Both the past deals did well. However, the stock was trading a whole lot lower at that time.In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.<div><h2>Our previous coverage on Hygeia</h2></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hygeia-healthcare-pre-ipo-the-making-of-jinxin-in-the-oncology-segment" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hygeia Healthcare (海吉亚) Pre-IPO: The making of Jinxin in the oncology segment</a></li>
<li dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hygeia-healthcare-pre-ipo-phip-updates-and-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hygeia Healthcare (海吉亚) Pre-IPO: PHIP Updates and Thoughts on Valuation</a></li>
<li dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hygeia-healthcare-ipo-hot-deal-but-expect-tiny-allocation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hygeia Healthcare (海吉亚) IPO: Hot Deal but Expect Tiny Allocation</a></li>
<li dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hygeia-healthcare-ipo-trading-upside-might-take-time-to-crystalize" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hygeia Healthcare (海吉亚) IPO Trading: Upside Might Take Time to Crystalize</a></li>
</ul></div>

Warburg Pincus aims to raise around US$216m via selling 3.2% of Hygeia Healthcare. This won’t be the first selldown by Warburg. Despite having been listed just around a year ago, the stock has already seen two placements, both in Jan 2021, just after the lock-up expiry. Both the past deals did well. However, the stock was trading a whole lot lower at that time.In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.Our previous coverage on Hygeia
Hygeia Healthcare (海吉亚) Pre-IPO: The making of Jinxin in the oncology segment
Hygeia Healthcare (海吉亚) Pre-IPO: PHIP Updates and Thoughts on Valuation
Hygeia Healthcare (海吉亚) IPO: Hot Deal but Expect Tiny Allocation
Hygeia Healthcare (海吉亚) IPO Trading: Upside Might Take Time to Crystalize


Hygeia Healthcare Placement - Past Deals Have Done Well but the Shares Are Now Very Expensive

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Executive SummaryWith the natural growth of the population and the inevitable trend of population aging, the demand in the healthcare industry will continue to rise. In addition, the improvement of people’s health consciousness, the upgrade of medical consumption and related favorable policies are the core factors driving the demand of China's medical device industry. Over the past five years, the global medical device market has maintained an annual growth rate of about 5%, while the growth rate of China's medical device market was more than 15%. It is expected that the gap between China and the global medical device market size would be gradually narrowed and China’s medical device market would play a more important role in the future. Therefore, the investment opportunities in China medical device market are very attractive and unmissable. On the other hand, with the promotion of the centralized procurement of high-value medical consumables nationwide, related medical device companies are facing pressure. So, how to find valuable investment targets that can avoid the influence of government's centralized procurement policy is important to investors. This Original mainly analyzed good investment opportunities, the industry characteristics, the investment rationale and the potential risks.What’s Original?We have identified the following investment opportunities in the Health Care Equipment and Services category in MSCI China:<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-mindray-bio-medic-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28017:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760 CH)</a>: Mindray is the largest medical device and solution supplier in China. Its three core businesses are all in the forefront in China, and is also one of the few domestic companies that is truly capable of achieving import substitution and internationalization and could compete with overseas giants. Meanwhile, because of the Company's business layout, Mindray is not greatly affected by the centralized procurement policy in the short term. Together with the strategy of “innovation + M&amp;A + internationalization”, Mindray has formed the high moat and become the industry benchmark.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ovctek-china-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29638:1" rel="noopener">Ovctek China Inc (300595 CH)</a>: OVCTEK is the leading company in China orthokeratology lens market, with broad market prospect. Considering the high prosperity of the industry in which the Company is located, the good competition pattern, and the low penetration rate of orthokeratology lens, OVCTEK is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth in the future. Meanwhile, because the products have strong consumption attributes, OVCTEK’s business will not be affected by the centralized procurement policy. The obvious product performance advantage, the strong sales channel and the large market potential are the drivers for revenue and margins.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafron-biomedical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29575:1" rel="noopener">Jafron Biomedical Co Ltd (300529 CH)</a>: JAFRON is the leading company in the field of hemoperfusion in China. As there are very limited competing products in the market, the Company is currently in a monopoly position of hemoperfusion cartridge, with strong pricing power and over 80% gross margin for more than five years. In addition, there is still a lot of room for growth in the hemoperfusion cartridge market, together with the strong product competitiveness, and the technical, raw material and channel advantages, JAFRON has established a high moat in this market.</li>
</ul>The pecking order is: Mindray, OVCTEK and JAFRON.

Executive SummaryWith the natural growth of the population and the inevitable trend of population aging, the demand in the healthcare industry will continue to rise. In addition, the improvement of people’s health consciousness, the upgrade of medical consumption and related favorable policies are the core factors driving the demand of China's medical device industry. Over the past five years, the global medical device market has maintained an annual growth rate of about 5%, while the growth rate of China's medical device market was more than 15%. It is expected that the gap between China and the global medical device market size would be gradually narrowed and China’s medical device market would play a more important role in the future. Therefore, the investment opportunities in China medical device market are very attractive and unmissable. On the other hand, with the promotion of the centralized procurement of high-value medical consumables nationwide, related medical device companies are facing pressure. So, how to find valuable investment targets that can avoid the influence of government's centralized procurement policy is important to investors. This Original mainly analyzed good investment opportunities, the industry characteristics, the investment rationale and the potential risks.What’s Original?We have identified the following investment opportunities in the Health Care Equipment and Services category in MSCI China:

Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760 CH): Mindray is the largest medical device and solution supplier in China. Its three core businesses are all in the forefront in China, and is also one of the few domestic companies that is truly capable of achieving import substitution and internationalization and could compete with overseas giants. Meanwhile, because of the Company's business layout, Mindray is not greatly affected by the centralized procurement policy in the short term. Together with the strategy of “innovation + M&amp;A + internationalization”, Mindray has formed the high moat and become the industry benchmark.

Ovctek China Inc (300595 CH): OVCTEK is the leading company in China orthokeratology lens market, with broad market prospect. Considering the high prosperity of the industry in which the Company is located, the good competition pattern, and the low penetration rate of orthokeratology lens, OVCTEK is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth in the future. Meanwhile, because the products have strong consumption attributes, OVCTEK’s business will not be affected by the centralized procurement policy. The obvious product performance advantage, the strong sales channel and the large market potential are the drivers for revenue and margins.

Jafron Biomedical Co Ltd (300529 CH): JAFRON is the leading company in the field of hemoperfusion in China. As there are very limited competing products in the market, the Company is currently in a monopoly position of hemoperfusion cartridge, with strong pricing power and over 80% gross margin for more than five years. In addition, there is still a lot of room for growth in the hemoperfusion cartridge market, together with the strong product competitiveness, and the technical, raw material and channel advantages, JAFRON has established a high moat in this market.
The pecking order is: Mindray, OVCTEK and JAFRON.

Investment Opportunities in China Medical Device Industry

The presentation today would mainly include the following parts:
<ul>
<li>2020 and 2021Q1 financial results</li>
<li>Market potential </li>
<li>Business analysis </li>
<li>Financial Analysis (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topchoice-medical-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1102:1" rel="noopener">Topchoice Medical (600763 CH)</a> vs <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aier-eye-hospital-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1103:1" rel="noopener">Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH)</a>)</li>
<li>Summary</li>
<li>Risk disclosure</li>
</ul>

The presentation today would mainly include the following parts:

2020 and 2021Q1 financial results
Market potential 
Business analysis 
Financial Analysis (Topchoice Medical (600763 CH) vs Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH))
Summary
Risk disclosure


Presentation on Apr.12: 2021 High Conviction Ideas - Topchoice Medical (600763.CH)

Industry viewpoints:<ul>
<li>The 5th volume-based purchase (VBP) could be kicked off in May or June this year, and then officially implement in July.</li>
<li>The National Health Care Security Administration pays high attention to the promotion of "Internet +" medical insurance payment.</li>
<li>The specialized hospitals in China are expected to have more growth potential than general hospitals. 
</li>
</ul>Company news:News about the updated progress of new drugs from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/everest-medicines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29224:1" rel="noopener">Everest Medicines (1952 HK)</a>.Market review: Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 2.81%, while CSI 300 increased 2.45% over the same period of time. Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Industry viewpoints:
The 5th volume-based purchase (VBP) could be kicked off in May or June this year, and then officially implement in July.
The National Health Care Security Administration pays high attention to the promotion of "Internet +" medical insurance payment.
The specialized hospitals in China are expected to have more growth potential than general hospitals. 

Company news:News about the updated progress of new drugs from Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), and Everest Medicines (1952 HK).Market review: Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 2.81%, while CSI 300 increased 2.45% over the same period of time. Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

China

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Co., Ltd. manufactures, retails, and wholesales a variety of pharmaceuticals including biopharmaceuticals, chemical and Chinese traditional medicines, and healthcare products. The Company also invests in new medicine development and provides related services.

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding (2607 HK)

Sinopharm Group Co Ltd is a pharmacy distribution company. The Company also owns several pharmacy enterprise groups in different industries such as logistics, retail stores, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and chemical testing.

Huadong Medicine Co., Ltd. wholesales and retails medicines, pharmaceutical preparations, biological products, and medical instruments.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures antibiotic medicines and biochemical products.

WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc. is a leading open-access R&D capability and technology platform company serving the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries, with operations in China, U.S., and Iceland.  We provide a broad and integrated portfolio of laboratory and manufacturing services throughout the drug and medical device R&D process.  Our services are designed to help our global partners in shortening the cycle and lowering the cost of drug and medical device R&D through cost-effective and efficient solutions. 

Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells Chinese patent medicine. The Company also wholesales, retails, imports, and exports Western and Chinese pharmaceutical products and various medical apparatus.

Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceu (600332 CH)

China National Medicines Corp. Ltd. wholesales and retails chemical material medicines, western medicine preparations, biochemical medicines, biological products, and Chinese traditional medicines.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures pharmaceuticals including injections, capsules, tablets, and other related products under the CNCM brand name.

Topchoice Medical Investment Corporation provides dental and oral health care services.

Tibet Rhodiola Pharmaceutical Holding Co. develops, manufactures, and markets Tibet medicines.  The Company's products include Rhodiola capsules, Rhodiola pellets, and other related medicines.

Zhejiang Dian Diagnostics Co., Ltd. provides medical diagnostic solutions, as an outsourcer, to various general hospitals, specialized hospitals, community health service centers (stations), township (county) hospitals, medical centers,  disease prevention and control centers.

Shenzhen Neptunus Bioengineering Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and markets biochemical pharmaceuticals, biological products, traditional Chinese medicines, and healthcare products.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures food.

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited operates Bangkok General Hospital. The Hospital specializes in cardiovascular, lung, neurological, eye and genitourinary cancer, as well as physical therapy and medical imaging.

Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited owns and operates hospitals in India.  The Company also runs a 24-hour pharmacy network via over 120 outlets across India. Apollo Hospitals also runs clinics and offer managed care and family health plans. The Company has a variety of locations in Chennai, Hyderabad, Delhi, Dubai, Vizag, Bilaspur and Chengannur.

Molina Healthcare Inc. is a managed care organization.  The Company arranges for the delivery of health care services to persons eligible for Medicaid and other programs for low-income families and individuals.  Molina Healthcare has health plans in California, Washington, Utah, and Michigan, as well as primary care clinics located in Northern and Southern California.

Universal Health Services, Inc. is a healthcare management company. The Company operates acute care hospitals, behavioral health centers, and surgery centers. Universal provides services such as general surgery, internal medicine, radiology, and pediatric services throughout the United States and Puerto Rico.

Quest Diagnostics Incorporated provides diagnostic testing, information, and services.  The Company operates a national network of full-service laboratories, rapid response laboratories, and patient service centers.  Quest Diagnostics provides esoteric testing, routine medical testing, drugs of abuse testing, and non-hospital-based anatomicpathology testing.

Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings is a clinical laboratory company that offers clinical laboratory tests used by the medical profession in routine testing, patient diagnosis, and in the monitoring and treatment of disease. The Company develops specialty testing operations, such as oncology testing, HIV genotyping and phenotyping, diagnostic genetics and clinical trials.

Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings (LH US)

Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings

Encompass Health Corporation provides inpatient rehabilitative healthcare services.  The Company operates inpatient rehabilitation hospitals, outpatient and rehabilitation satellites, and home health agencies. Encompass Health provides treatment on both an inpatient and outpatient basis.

Sonic Healthcare Limited is a medical diagnostics company with operations in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe.  The Company provides a comprehensive range of pathology and diagnostic imaging services to medical practitioners, hospitals and their patients along with providing administrative services and facilities to medical practitioners.

Tenet Healthcare Corporation, through its subsidiaries, owns or operates general hospitals and related health care facilities serving communities in the United States.  The Company operates rehabilitation hospitals, specialty hospitals, long-term care facilities, psychiatric facilities, and medical office buildings near its general hospitals, as well as ancillary health care businesses.

Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA offers kidney dialysis services and manufactures and distributes equipment and products used in the treatment of dialysis patients. The Company also offers clinical laboratory testing and diagnostic testing services and provides home infusion, respiratory therapy, ultrasound, and echo-cardiography. Fresenius operates worldwide.

Aier Eye Hospital Group Co., Ltd provides ophthalmological services.  The Company's services include ophthalmological diagnosis and treatments.

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Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH)

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Lower-Than-Expected Dividends but Still A Marvelous FY21

China Dongxiang has delivered impressive FY21 result with good recovery in sportswear and surge in investment income. At 47% discount to book...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hygeia Healthcare Placement - Past Deals Have Done Well but the Shares Are Now Very Expensive

Warburg Pincus aims to raise around US$216m via selling 3.2% of Hygeia Healthcare. This won’t be the first selldown by Warburg.

Sumeet Singh

Investment Opportunities in China Medical Device Industry

This Original mainly analyzed good investment opportunities, the industry characteristics, the investment rationale and the potential risks in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Presentation on Apr.12: 2021 High Conviction Ideas - Topchoice Medical (600763.CH)

This article analyzed Top Choice in terms of the 2020 and 2021Q1 financial results, market potential, business model, financial position compared...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.2)

This article analyzed the upcoming 5th volume-based purchase, the "Internet +" medical insurance payment, the specialized hospital market...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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