Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.</li>
<li>Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.
Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.


Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

<ul>
<li>We have been expecting near-term downside on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 since our February 27 Int’l Compass, when both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts.</li>
<li>Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we don't see it as a buying opportunity, and we believe $115 support is not likely to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are cautious and would get defensive, as we believe the odds of a more prolonged downturn in global equities are rising.</li>
</ul>


We have been expecting near-term downside on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 since our February 27 Int’l Compass, when both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts.
Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we don't see it as a buying opportunity, and we believe $115 support is not likely to hold on ACWI-US.
Therefore, we are cautious and would get defensive, as we believe the odds of a more prolonged downturn in global equities are rising.


Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). Germany and Europe continue to lead, our favorite theme we have been buying since January 9th.</li>
<li>Near-Term we wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on SPX in the coming weeks, where we are buyers.</li>
<li>This report was initially sent out Thursday morning, and as of this writing SPX is now testing support at 5850. Bottom potential.</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). Germany and Europe continue to lead, our favorite theme we have been buying since January 9th.
Near-Term we wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on SPX in the coming weeks, where we are buyers.
This report was initially sent out Thursday morning, and as of this writing SPX is now testing support at 5850. Bottom potential.


Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact

Singapore Market Roundup, Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>DBS emphasizes TSV project as a significant initiative for GVT, showcasing its strategic importance for growth and development.</li><li>CGSI forecasts robust earnings for companies like Sembcorp, Seatrium, iFast, FLCT, Singtel, and SIA, indicating a positive outlook for the market.</li><li>DBS reaffirms its positive outlook on OUE REIT, citing improved operating performance as a key factor in maintaining a 'buy' rating for the company.</li></ul>

DBS emphasizes TSV project as a significant initiative for GVT, showcasing its strategic importance for growth and development.CGSI forecasts robust earnings for companies like Sembcorp, Seatrium, iFast, FLCT, Singtel, and SIA, indicating a positive outlook for the market.DBS reaffirms its positive outlook on OUE REIT, citing improved operating performance as a key factor in maintaining a 'buy' rating for the company.

Singapore Market Roundup (24-Jan-2025): DBS TSV project key for GVT.

<ul>
<li>OCBC's research head may increase banks' 2025 profit forecasts due to fewer expected Fed cuts, indicating positive outcomes for investors.</li>
<li>Brokers' Digest highlights updates on CapitaLand Investment, DBS, Sembcorp, Hong Leong Asia, and First Resources, offering valuable insights for investors.</li>
<li>DBS recommends investing in Keppel Infrastructure Trust for stable dividends and growth, presenting a lucrative opportunity for investors seeking long-term returns.</li>
</ul>


OCBC's research head may increase banks' 2025 profit forecasts due to fewer expected Fed cuts, indicating positive outcomes for investors.
Brokers' Digest highlights updates on CapitaLand Investment, DBS, Sembcorp, Hong Leong Asia, and First Resources, offering valuable insights for investors.
DBS recommends investing in Keppel Infrastructure Trust for stable dividends and growth, presenting a lucrative opportunity for investors seeking long-term returns.


Singapore Market Roundup (20-Dec-2024): Key Updates on CapitaLand, DBS, Sembcorp, Hong Leong

Singapore

Sembcorp Industries Ltd provides utilities and integrated services for industrial sites such as power, gas, steam, water, wastewater treatment and other on-site services. The Company's businesses also include marine & offshore engineering and urban development comprising industrial parks and business, commercial and residential spaces.

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Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP)

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO $STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level; Watch for Resistance at $105-$117.69 on $ACWI. Buy...

Vermilion Research

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn are Rising; We are Cautious; Get Defensive; $115 on ACWI-US Remains Key Level, and is at Risk of Breakdown. Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany $DAX $EWG and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI above $116. $SPX...

Vermilion Research

Singapore Market Roundup (24-Jan-2025): DBS TSV project key for GVT.

DBS emphasizes TSV project for GVT, CGSI projects strong earnings for Sembcorp, Seatrium, iFast, FLCT, Singtel, and SIA, maintains 'buy' rating on...

Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup (20-Dec-2024): Key Updates on CapitaLand, DBS, Sembcorp, Hong Leong

Brokers highlight CapitaLand Investment, DBS, Sembcorp, Hong Leong Asia, First Resources, and recommend investing in Keppel Infrastructure Trust...

Singapore Market Roundup

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