Global Macro Strategy

Callum Henderson

Macroeconomics

* The BoJ's move to negative rates failed to calm markets and may have exacerbated the sell-off* There are however strong reasons for expecting further policymaker action ahead of the July elections* The BoJ has warned it could take further action and if stocks continue lower that may be their focus* Government also needs to take bolder reform measures to unlock growth potential* JPY gains are done for now with a pullback likely near-termThis is a follow-up to my in-depth report <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-calling-from-currency-wars-to-competitive-monetary-easing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:2537">Asia Calling:</a>…

* The BoJ's move to negative rates failed to calm markets and may have exacerbated the sell-off* There are however strong reasons for expecting further policymaker action ahead of the July elections* The BoJ has warned it could take further action and if stocks continue lower that may be their focus* Government also needs to take bolder reform measures to unlock growth potential* JPY gains are done for now with a pullback likely near-termThis is a follow-up to my in-depth report Asia Calling:…

Japanese Policy Measures Likely to Be Ramped up Ahead of July Elections

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/mxK3sCSR" target="_blank">Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&amp;P and oil to provide support for a final uptick attempt later this week/early next week before the bear cycle resumes. Difficult to trade 2 day swings. We are allowing for a 2-3 day draw down followed by a final push up next week to re cycle shorts.</a><div>
<a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/mxK3sCSR" target="_blank">We look at support points in our long Nikkei (17,600 rally target) and Taiwan (8,000 trendline and sliding) with a smaller bet in Thailand (1,300+ to exit</a>…</div>

Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&amp;P and oil to provide support for a final uptick attempt later this week/early next week before the bear cycle resumes. Difficult to trade 2 day swings. We are allowing for a 2-3 day draw down followed by a final push up next week to re cycle shorts.
We look at support points in our long Nikkei (17,600 rally target) and Taiwan (8,000 trendline and sliding) with a smaller bet in Thailand (1,300+ to exit…

Merger Arbitrage, Relative Value, Event-Driven

Per Gullberg, CFA, FRM, CAIA

Event-Driven

On 20 Dec, it was reported in the business press that Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) is in talks with Showa Shell Sekiyu (5002 JP) regarding a possible buyout of the latter &nbsp;through a Tender Offer Bid. If the transaction eventuates, it may lead to further consolidation among the sector peers. We will be keeping an eye on&nbsp;Cosmo Oil (5007 JP) and &nbsp;TonenGeneral (5012), but also on small-cap Fuji Oil (5017 JP).In this initial insight into the situation, we discuss the Japanese Crude Oil Refinery Sector, and look at recent Japan FTC precedents. We present an estimated timeline, and also look at some of the key risks.

On 20 Dec, it was reported in the business press that Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) is in talks with Showa Shell Sekiyu (5002 JP) regarding a possible buyout of the latter &nbsp;through a Tender Offer Bid. If the transaction eventuates, it may lead to further consolidation among the sector peers. We will be keeping an eye on&nbsp;Cosmo Oil (5007 JP) and &nbsp;TonenGeneral (5012), but also on small-cap Fuji Oil (5017 JP).In this initial insight into the situation, we discuss the Japanese Crude Oil Refinery Sector, and look at recent Japan FTC precedents. We present an estimated timeline, and also look at some of the key risks.

Showa Shell in buyout-talks -  Possible USD 4bn deal

Japan

Showa Shell Sekiyu K.K. imports, refines, and distributes petroleum and petroleum products.

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Showa Shell Sekiyu Kk (5002 JP)

Japanese Policy Measures Likely to Be Ramped up Ahead of July Elections

* The BoJ's move to negative rates failed to calm markets and may have exacerbated the sell-off* There are however strong reasons for expecting...

Callum Henderson

Asia into Next Week

Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&P and oil to provide support for a final uptick...

Thomas Schroeder

Showa Shell in buyout-talks - Possible USD 4bn deal

On 20 Dec, it was reported in the business press that Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) is in talks with Showa Shell Sekiyu (5002 JP) regarding a possible...

Per Gullberg, CFA, FRM, CAIA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)