TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

In between earnings seasons, we are trying to catch up on the flurry of TMT IPOs over the past few months that have caught our eye. Why Digital Ocean? We're pretty big Amazon bulls cause of AWS, so when we heard there was this mini-AWS that the developer community swears by, had 30%+ EBITDA margins, was accelerating growth by growing dollar retention rates and ARPUs...we had to learn more. Strikes us at the type of business that could be a 5 to 10-bagger over the next year or two. <div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

In between earnings seasons, we are trying to catch up on the flurry of TMT IPOs over the past few months that have caught our eye. Why Digital Ocean? We're pretty big Amazon bulls cause of AWS, so when we heard there was this mini-AWS that the developer community swears by, had 30%+ EBITDA margins, was accelerating growth by growing dollar retention rates and ARPUs...we had to learn more. Strikes us at the type of business that could be a 5 to 10-bagger over the next year or two. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Value Investing

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

<ul>
<li>Contrary to the prevalent opinion a year ago, Oracle outperformed its peers since I first covered the stock in October of last year.</li>
<li>The company has one of the most profitable business models in the cloud space, while top line growth rate is accelerating.</li>
<li>In spite of Oracle's strong service offering and high profitability, its valuation remains conservative given the likelihood of higher growth next year.</li>
</ul>


Contrary to the prevalent opinion a year ago, Oracle outperformed its peers since I first covered the stock in October of last year.
The company has one of the most profitable business models in the cloud space, while top line growth rate is accelerating.
In spite of Oracle's strong service offering and high profitability, its valuation remains conservative given the likelihood of higher growth next year.


Oracle - Don't Fall Victim To Recency Bias

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freshworks-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34147:1" rel="noopener">Freshworks (FRSH US)</a> , a leading provider of cloud-based customer engagement software, filed for a $100 million placeholder IPO. Form S-1 starts with a founder letter, where Mr. Girish Mathrubootham describes the vision of a company: “What if we can create an iPhone moment in business software by blending existing technology with unified, intuitive, and delightful experiences? Just as the iPhone freed users from the hassles of carrying separate devices, we envision a new product experience that breaks down data silos and creates unified experiences”. Freshworks has applied to list shares of Class A common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol “FRSH”. Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan and Bank of America are lead underwriters on the IPO.

Freshworks (FRSH US) , a leading provider of cloud-based customer engagement software, filed for a $100 million placeholder IPO. Form S-1 starts with a founder letter, where Mr. Girish Mathrubootham describes the vision of a company: “What if we can create an iPhone moment in business software by blending existing technology with unified, intuitive, and delightful experiences? Just as the iPhone freed users from the hassles of carrying separate devices, we envision a new product experience that breaks down data silos and creates unified experiences”. Freshworks has applied to list shares of Class A common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol “FRSH”. Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan and Bank of America are lead underwriters on the IPO.

Freshworks IPO Preview. India’s First SaaS Unicorn

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

On Friday post market close, S&amp;P Dow Jones announced the results of the September review for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a> that will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.There are 3 inclusion -  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/match-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25903:1" rel="noopener">Match Group Inc (MTCH US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ceridian-hcm-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27122:1" rel="noopener">Ceridian HCM Holding Inc (CDAY US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brown-brown-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19532:1" rel="noopener">Brown &amp; Brown (BRO US)</a>, while the exclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unum-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2521:1" rel="noopener">Unum Group (UNM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-oilwell-varco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3046:1" rel="noopener">National Oilwell Varco (NOV US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perrigo-co-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:869:1" rel="noopener">Perrigo Co Plc (PRGO US)</a>.There are inclusions/exclusions to the S&amp;P MidCap 400 and the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 as well.The stocks with the largest impact from passive buying are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/match-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25903:1" rel="noopener">Match Group Inc (MTCH US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tandem-diabetes-care-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20893:1" rel="noopener">Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brown-brown-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19532:1" rel="noopener">Brown &amp; Brown (BRO US)</a>, UniqureNV (QURE US) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ceridian-hcm-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27122:1" rel="noopener">Ceridian HCM Holding Inc (CDAY US)</a>.The stocks with the largest impact from passive selling are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-insurance-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19222:1" rel="noopener">United Insurance Holdings (UIHC US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/team-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6811:1" rel="noopener">Team Inc (TISI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unum-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2521:1" rel="noopener">Unum Group (UNM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perrigo-co-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:869:1" rel="noopener">Perrigo Co Plc (PRGO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-oilwell-varco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3046:1" rel="noopener">National Oilwell Varco (NOV US)</a>.There are a lot of other stocks that will have a lot to buy/sell from passive funds due to changes in the number of shares and free float and due to funding flows.

On Friday post market close, S&amp;P Dow Jones announced the results of the September review for the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX) that will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.There are 3 inclusion -  Match Group Inc (MTCH US), Ceridian HCM Holding Inc (CDAY US) and Brown &amp; Brown (BRO US), while the exclusions are Unum Group (UNM US), National Oilwell Varco (NOV US) and Perrigo Co Plc (PRGO US).There are inclusions/exclusions to the S&amp;P MidCap 400 and the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 as well.The stocks with the largest impact from passive buying are Match Group Inc (MTCH US), Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM US), Brown &amp; Brown (BRO US), UniqureNV (QURE US) and Ceridian HCM Holding Inc (CDAY US).The stocks with the largest impact from passive selling are United Insurance Holdings (UIHC US), Team Inc (TISI US), Unum Group (UNM US), Perrigo Co Plc (PRGO US) and National Oilwell Varco (NOV US).There are a lot of other stocks that will have a lot to buy/sell from passive funds due to changes in the number of shares and free float and due to funding flows.

S&P500 Index Rebalance: Swiping Right on Match

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We continue to see a mixed market, and weak market dynamics lead us to be cautious. One of the primary issues is weak breadth; the large-cap indexes (S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq) remain bullish despite being held up by a relatively small number of mega-cap growth stocks, a condition that can persist for weeks or months. Ultimately, as long as there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level we remain constructive overall.

We continue to see a mixed market, and weak market dynamics lead us to be cautious. One of the primary issues is weak breadth; the large-cap indexes (S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq) remain bullish despite being held up by a relatively small number of mega-cap growth stocks, a condition that can persist for weeks or months. Ultimately, as long as there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level we remain constructive overall.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Cautious Overall; Favor Large-Caps & Growth; Key Supports Holding In The U.S.

United States

Oracle Corporation supplies software for enterprise information management. The Company offers databases and relational servers, application development and decision support tools, and enterprise business applications. Oracle's software runs on network computers, personal digital assistants, set-top devices, PCs, workstations, minicomputers, mainframes, and massively parallel computers.

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Oracle Corp (ORCL US)

Recent IPO Insights: Digital Ocean

Why Digital Ocean? When we heard there was this mini-AWS that the developer community swears by, had 30%+ EBITDA margins, was accelerating net...

Aaron Gabin

Oracle - Don't Fall Victim To Recency Bias

Contrary to the prevalent opinion a year ago, Oracle outperformed its peers since I first covered the stock in October of last year. The company...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Freshworks IPO Preview. India’s First SaaS Unicorn

We expect the high investor demand for Freshworks IPO as SaaS unicorn may disrupt CRM market by breaking down the silos of marketing, sales, and...

Andrei Zakharov

S&P500 Index Rebalance: Swiping Right on Match

There are 3 changes to the S&P500 that will be implemented at the close on 17 Sep. There are changes to the S&P400 & S&P600 as well. There will be...

Brian Freitas

U.S. Equity Strategy: Cautious Overall; Favor Large-Caps & Growth; Key Supports Holding In The U.S.

The S&P 500 remains bullish, recently hitting our 4400-4406 target as large-caps remain attractive. As long as support at the 50-day MA and 4257...

Vermilion Research

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