TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Disney announced a new ad-based tier for Disney+ last week.</li>
<li>The decision to go this direction may imply market saturation, rising competitive intensity, or an inability to hit its subscriber targets organically.</li>
<li>Disney's streaming business is increasingly dominated by low value Hotstar+ subs</li>
</ul>


Disney announced a new ad-based tier for Disney+ last week.
The decision to go this direction may imply market saturation, rising competitive intensity, or an inability to hit its subscriber targets organically.
Disney's streaming business is increasingly dominated by low value Hotstar+ subs


Disney: Streaming Trapped Between a Rock and Hard Place

<ul>
<li>Shockingly poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation, competition, or both. (We think both)</li>
<li>Operating Margin guidance cut blamed on FX, we think more likely the demand for heightened content spend due to competition.</li>
<li>Netflix valuation always built on a long term DCF...very sensitive to downward revisions in subscribers and ARPU...we think Netflix settles around $400 until it can disprove bear thesis.</li>
</ul>


Shockingly poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation, competition, or both. (We think both)
Operating Margin guidance cut blamed on FX, we think more likely the demand for heightened content spend due to competition.
Netflix valuation always built on a long term DCF...very sensitive to downward revisions in subscribers and ARPU...we think Netflix settles around $400 until it can disprove bear thesis.


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Comcast Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.</li><li>Total revenue increased, driven by ongoing operating leverage at the company's high-margin Connectivity & Platforms business as well as significant growth at studios and theme parks.</li><li>Residential connectivity revenue increased with growth in domestic broadband, wireless revenue, and international connectivity.</li></ul>

Comcast Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.Total revenue increased, driven by ongoing operating leverage at the company's high-margin Connectivity & Platforms business as well as significant growth at studios and theme parks.Residential connectivity revenue increased with growth in domestic broadband, wireless revenue, and international connectivity.

Comcast Corporation: Notable Advancements On The Xfinity X1 Platform! – Key Drivers

<ul><li>Comcast Corporation started off with 2023 on a mixed note.</li><li>While its revenues and earnings were above Wall Street expectations, the total company revenue of $29.7 billion fell 4%.</li><li>We give Comcast Corporation a 'Hold' rating with a revised target price.</li></ul>

Comcast Corporation started off with 2023 on a mixed note.While its revenues and earnings were above Wall Street expectations, the total company revenue of $29.7 billion fell 4%.We give Comcast Corporation a 'Hold' rating with a revised target price.

Comcast Corporation: Subscriber Growth Slowdown & Growing Peacock Losses Are Concerning – Key Drivers

<ul><li>Comcast achieved a strong result that surpassed Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.</li><li>The company is slowly growing its ARPU as it is working towards building its customer relationships by steadily introducing new capabilities, services, and benefits.</li><li>In 2023, ARPU growth should continue to be the main factor influencing their residential broadband revenue growth.</li></ul>

Comcast achieved a strong result that surpassed Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.The company is slowly growing its ARPU as it is working towards building its customer relationships by steadily introducing new capabilities, services, and benefits.In 2023, ARPU growth should continue to be the main factor influencing their residential broadband revenue growth.

United States

Comcast Corporation provides media and television broadcasting services. The Company offers video streaming, television programming, high-speed internet, cable television, and communication services. Comcast serves customers worldwide.

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Comcast Corp Class A (CMCSA US)

Disney: Streaming Trapped Between a Rock and Hard Place

Disney's recent announcement of an ad-supported tier being launched for Disney+ strikes us as a questionable strategic choice that indicates market...

Aaron Gabin

Netflix 4Q21: Don’t Look Down

Netflix's poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation,...

Aaron Gabin

Comcast Corporation: Notable Advancements On The Xfinity X1 Platform! – Key Drivers

Comcast Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result. Total revenue increased, driven by ongoing operating...

Baptista Research

Comcast Corporation: Subscriber Growth Slowdown & Growing Peacock Losses Are Concerning – Key Drivers

Comcast Corporation started off with 2023 on a mixed note. While its revenues and earnings were above Wall Street expectations, the total company...

Baptista Research

Comcast Corporation: Major Drivers

Comcast achieved a strong result that surpassed Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings. The company is slowly growing...

Baptista Research

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