Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>“Beware the Ides of March”: the soothsayer’s repeated warning to ancient Rome’s most famous emperor in William Shakespeare’s play <em>‘Julius Caesar’</em>.  Caesar ignores the warning and is assassinated later that day by his colleagues on the steps of the Senate.  We have been warning investors in Japanese bank stocks for the last few years to “beware the Ides of March”, advising them to be very underweight in the sector (or preferably out of the sector entirely) by 15 March each year to avoid the risk of incurring a similar fate at the hands of their investment colleagues as befell Julius Caesar on 15 March 44BC.  We are now well past the Ides of March and, true to form, the sector has already peaked and lost momentum after a brief <em>post</em>-Santa rally.  ‘<em>Caveat emptor!</em> (May the buyer beware!)’ remains our Caesarean soothsayer warning to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks in 2019.</p>

“Beware the Ides of March”: the soothsayer’s repeated warning to ancient Rome’s most famous emperor in William Shakespeare’s play ‘Julius Caesar’.  Caesar ignores the warning and is assassinated later that day by his colleagues on the steps of the Senate.  We have been warning investors in Japanese bank stocks for the last few years to “beware the Ides of March”, advising them to be very underweight in the sector (or preferably out of the sector entirely) by 15 March each year to avoid the risk of incurring a similar fate at the hands of their investment colleagues as befell Julius Caesar on 15 March 44BC.  We are now well past the Ides of March and, true to form, the sector has already peaked and lost momentum after a brief post-Santa rally.  ‘Caveat emptor! (May the buyer beware!)’ remains our Caesarean soothsayer warning to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks in 2019.

Japanese Banks:  Beyond the Ides of March

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19151" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19151:1">Musashino Bank (8336 JP)</a> was one of the last regional banks to announce 3Q FY3/2019 results, and they were a nasty surprise: a consolidated net loss for the nine months to 31 December 2018, caused by heavy reserving in Q3 (October-December 2018) against the bank’s exposure to the troubled <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12033" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12033:1">Akebono Brake Industry Co (7238 JP)</a> .  While the bank has slashed its full-year net profit guidance from ¥11.1 billion to ¥4.5 billion, this would still require an heroic level of profits in Q4 which the bank has never before achieved.  The share price has fallen over 31% in the last twelve months.  Valuations at current levels are still high (FY3/2019 PER is 17.6x) and we consider the share price to be vulnerable to further weakness.  <em>Caveat emptor</em> (May the buyer beware) !</p>

Musashino Bank (8336 JP) was one of the last regional banks to announce 3Q FY3/2019 results, and they were a nasty surprise: a consolidated net loss for the nine months to 31 December 2018, caused by heavy reserving in Q3 (October-December 2018) against the bank’s exposure to the troubled Akebono Brake Industry Co (7238 JP) .  While the bank has slashed its full-year net profit guidance from ¥11.1 billion to ¥4.5 billion, this would still require an heroic level of profits in Q4 which the bank has never before achieved.  The share price has fallen over 31% in the last twelve months.  Valuations at current levels are still high (FY3/2019 PER is 17.6x) and we consider the share price to be vulnerable to further weakness.  Caveat emptor (May the buyer beware) !

Concordia Financial Group, Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>CY2018 was not a good year for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22704" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22704:1">Concordia Financial Group, Ltd (7186 JP)</a>  (CFG), the holding company for one of Japan’s largest regional banks, the Bank of Yokohama (BoY), and a small secondary regional bank, Higashi-Nippon Bank (HNPB).  Beset by a lending scandal at HNPB, which forced the bank's president to step down, CFG’s share price remains some 30% below February 2018 levels, and has essentially traded sideways so far this year. </p>
<p>CFG management's attempts to placate disgruntled shareholders with stock buybacks and dividend payout increases have largely failed to impress.  3Q FY3/2019 profits declined by 8% year-on-year but relied heavily on non-core profit items: true core earnings collapsed 35.9%.  The Japanese banking sector remains unloved at present.  That said, currently trading on similar valuations to our much-preferred <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1048" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1048:1">Chiba Bank (8331 JP)</a> , CFG remains a liquid alternative to the ‘crowded trade’ of simply buying megabanks for exposure to the Japanese financial sector.  Patience, however, is the key word for investors here.  No harm in waiting to buy at a better entry price.</p>

CY2018 was not a good year for Concordia Financial Group, Ltd (7186 JP)  (CFG), the holding company for one of Japan’s largest regional banks, the Bank of Yokohama (BoY), and a small secondary regional bank, Higashi-Nippon Bank (HNPB).  Beset by a lending scandal at HNPB, which forced the bank's president to step down, CFG’s share price remains some 30% below February 2018 levels, and has essentially traded sideways so far this year. 
CFG management's attempts to placate disgruntled shareholders with stock buybacks and dividend payout increases have largely failed to impress.  3Q FY3/2019 profits declined by 8% year-on-year but relied heavily on non-core profit items: true core earnings collapsed 35.9%.  The Japanese banking sector remains unloved at present.  That said, currently trading on similar valuations to our much-preferred Chiba Bank (8331 JP) , CFG remains a liquid alternative to the ‘crowded trade’ of simply buying megabanks for exposure to the Japanese financial sector.  Patience, however, is the key word for investors here.  No harm in waiting to buy at a better entry price.

Concordia Financial Group (7186 JP): Out of Focus

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1048" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1048:1">Chiba Bank (8331 JP)</a> , Japan’s 4<sup>th</sup>-largest regional bank in terms of deposits, loans or total assets, reported consolidated recurring profits for the nine months to end-December 2018 (3Q FY3/2019) of ¥59.66 billion (down 10.6% YoY) and net profits of ¥41.44 billion (down 10.8% YoY) on marginally higher revenues of ¥180.20 billion (+1.3% YoY).  Results were influenced by higher funding costs and a sharp rise in credit costs that offset the benefits of strong growth in loan demand.  There was also some improvement in net interest income and securities trading profits, and a reduction in administrative expenses.  The Japanese banking sector is currently unloved by foreign investors. However, trading on a forward-looking PE ratio of 9.1x (using the bank’s own FY3/2019 guidance), a PBR of 0.52x and boasting the highest current market capitalisation of any Japanese regional bank of ¥553.9 billion (US$5.04 billion), Chiba Bank continues to offer good prospects of long-term growth and a strong profits ‘track record’ supported by the underlying strength of the Chiba prefectural economy.</p>

Chiba Bank (8331 JP) , Japan’s 4th-largest regional bank in terms of deposits, loans or total assets, reported consolidated recurring profits for the nine months to end-December 2018 (3Q FY3/2019) of ¥59.66 billion (down 10.6% YoY) and net profits of ¥41.44 billion (down 10.8% YoY) on marginally higher revenues of ¥180.20 billion (+1.3% YoY).  Results were influenced by higher funding costs and a sharp rise in credit costs that offset the benefits of strong growth in loan demand.  There was also some improvement in net interest income and securities trading profits, and a reduction in administrative expenses.  The Japanese banking sector is currently unloved by foreign investors. However, trading on a forward-looking PE ratio of 9.1x (using the bank’s own FY3/2019 guidance), a PBR of 0.52x and boasting the highest current market capitalisation of any Japanese regional bank of ¥553.9 billion (US$5.04 billion), Chiba Bank continues to offer good prospects of long-term growth and a strong profits ‘track record’ supported by the underlying strength of the Chiba prefectural economy.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/363/original/2019-01-11_14-16-49.png?1547292773" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75363"></figure>
<p></p>
Source: Japan Analytics</div>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>CURRENCY DRIVER</strong> - The ¥/US$ cross rate has strengthened by 5.3% since the recent US$ peak of ¥114.20 on November 12th 2018, which has led some FX and technical specialists (including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/381" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:381">Thomas Schroeder </a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dollar-yen-big-short-phase-ii" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:27163">here</a> on Smartkarma) to call for a more sustained bout of US$ weakness. A period of Yen strength is far from a consensus forecast for most Japanese equity investors, and historically a stronger Yen has resulted in a weaker Japanese equity market. The three Yen 'peaks' highlighted by the vertical lines in the chart above all coincided with medium-term lows in TOPIX.  </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/287/original/2019-01-11_14-44-07.png?1547185462" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75287"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>¥ &lt; 100</strong> - If we isolate only the 1,484 days in the last forty years when the USDJPY cross has traded above ¥100, the average TOPIX index is 975, which would imply 36% downside for Japanese equities were the Yen to rise above ¥90. Nevertheless, the three Yen peaks we have isolated have proved to be excellent entry points with the subsequent trough-to-peak performance being 28% in 1995~1996, 108% in 2011~2015 and 48% in 2016~2018. Long-term Japan 'bulls' should welcome the coming US dollar bear market. </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/313/original/2019-01-12_10-50-14.png?1547257825" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75313"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>EARNINGS DRIVER</strong> - The USDJPY cross remains an important driver of earnings and earnings momentum in Japan. As measured by our Results and Revision Scores, there is a good correlation between the trends in both scores and the year-on-year change in USDJPY lagged by six months, especially around significant turning points for the cross rate (marked by the vertical lines). The Results and Revision Scores have declined since January 2018 in line with the stronger Yen. A move up to above the ¥90 level would, without doubt, take both scores into negative territory again- the only question being, are we replaying 2009/10 or 2016/17? </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/319/original/2019-01-12_13-40-19.png?1547268030" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75319"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>CURRENCY CORRELATIONS</strong> - In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we list the larger capitalisation companies whose share price performance most closely correlated with the dollar-yen cross rate. As a preview, the most correlated larger capitalisation company that has been listed since 2006 is, unsurprisingly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/73" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/318/original/2019-01-12_13-15-40.png?1547266553" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75318"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>THE FOREIGN CURRENCY TRANSLATION ADJUSTMENT </strong>- We also go one step further and use the 'Foreign Currency Translation Adjustment' that forms part of Other Comprehensive Income (which has been disclosed in corporate balance sheets and income statements since 2001 and 2011, respectively) to measure the extent of each company's global business and the embedded currency risk. The correlation of the aggregate FCTA for all non-financial companies is, as would be expected, reasonably tight after adding two-month lag for the reporting cycle. As these amounts are directly deducted from Net Assets for companies adopting JGAAP and from Shareholders' Equity for those companies reporting under SEC or IFRS standards, the impact on valuations cannot be ignored.</p>




Source: Japan Analytics
CURRENCY DRIVER - The ¥/US$ cross rate has strengthened by 5.3% since the recent US$ peak of ¥114.20 on November 12th 2018, which has led some FX and technical specialists (including Thomas Schroeder  here on Smartkarma) to call for a more sustained bout of US$ weakness. A period of Yen strength is far from a consensus forecast for most Japanese equity investors, and historically a stronger Yen has resulted in a weaker Japanese equity market. The three Yen 'peaks' highlighted by the vertical lines in the chart above all coincided with medium-term lows in TOPIX.  

Source: Japan Analytics
¥ &lt; 100 - If we isolate only the 1,484 days in the last forty years when the USDJPY cross has traded above ¥100, the average TOPIX index is 975, which would imply 36% downside for Japanese equities were the Yen to rise above ¥90. Nevertheless, the three Yen peaks we have isolated have proved to be excellent entry points with the subsequent trough-to-peak performance being 28% in 1995~1996, 108% in 2011~2015 and 48% in 2016~2018. Long-term Japan 'bulls' should welcome the coming US dollar bear market. 

Source: Japan Analytics
EARNINGS DRIVER - The USDJPY cross remains an important driver of earnings and earnings momentum in Japan. As measured by our Results and Revision Scores, there is a good correlation between the trends in both scores and the year-on-year change in USDJPY lagged by six months, especially around significant turning points for the cross rate (marked by the vertical lines). The Results and Revision Scores have declined since January 2018 in line with the stronger Yen. A move up to above the ¥90 level would, without doubt, take both scores into negative territory again- the only question being, are we replaying 2009/10 or 2016/17? 

Source: Japan Analytics
CURRENCY CORRELATIONS - In the DETAIL below, we list the larger capitalisation companies whose share price performance most closely correlated with the dollar-yen cross rate. As a preview, the most correlated larger capitalisation company that has been listed since 2006 is, unsurprisingly, Toyota Motor (7203 JP).

Source: Japan Analytics
THE FOREIGN CURRENCY TRANSLATION ADJUSTMENT - We also go one step further and use the 'Foreign Currency Translation Adjustment' that forms part of Other Comprehensive Income (which has been disclosed in corporate balance sheets and income statements since 2001 and 2011, respectively) to measure the extent of each company's global business and the embedded currency risk. The correlation of the aggregate FCTA for all non-financial companies is, as would be expected, reasonably tight after adding two-month lag for the reporting cycle. As these amounts are directly deducted from Net Assets for companies adopting JGAAP and from Shareholders' Equity for those companies reporting under SEC or IFRS standards, the impact on valuations cannot be ignored.

Japan: What to Buy & Sell if the ¥ Rises to 90

Japan

The Chiba Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Chiba Prefecture. The Bank offers general banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transactions. The Chiba Bank also develops software and provides financial services such as leasing, securities brokerage, letter of credit, and credit cards.

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Chiba Bank (8331 JP)

Japanese Banks: Beyond the Ides of March

“Beware the Ides of March”: the soothsayer’s repeated warning to ancient Rome’s most famous emperor in William Shakespeare’s play ‘Julius Caesar’. ...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Musashino Bank (8336 JP): Braking Bad

Musashino Bank (8336 JP) was one of the last regional banks to announce 3Q FY3/2019 results, and they were a nasty surprise: a consolidated net...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Concordia Financial Group (7186 JP): Out of Focus

CY2018 was not a good year for Concordia Financial Group, Ltd (7186 JP) (CFG), the holding company for one of Japan’s largest regional banks, the...

J. Brian Waterhouse