Indian Accounting Research Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Indian Accounting Research Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Forensic Accounting

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals / Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glenmark-pharmaceuticals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10454:1" rel="noopener">Glenmark Pharmaceuticals (GNP IN)</a> FY24 results have seen PBT reducing from INR 2.4 bn to INR 365 mn i.e. by nearly 85%. </li>
<li>This was on account for exceptional line items, which included gains from sale stake in Glenmark Lifesciences, but was offset by losses pertaining to legalities and heavy impairment in assets.</li>
<li>The habit of having exceptional items, especially impairments is not something new or one-offs. There have been regular impairments carried in the past as well. </li>
</ul>



Glenmark Pharmaceuticals (GNP IN) FY24 results have seen PBT reducing from INR 2.4 bn to INR 365 mn i.e. by nearly 85%. 
This was on account for exceptional line items, which included gains from sale stake in Glenmark Lifesciences, but was offset by losses pertaining to legalities and heavy impairment in assets.
The habit of having exceptional items, especially impairments is not something new or one-offs. There have been regular impairments carried in the past as well. 


Glenmark Pharma- Value Erosion Not Something New

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.</li>
<li>It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).</li>
</ul>


Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).
Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.
It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).


Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Zydus Lifesciences Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zydus-lifesciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12914:1" rel="noopener">Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN)</a> reported stellar performance in Q1FY25, with all key parameters improved sequentially and YoY. The company achieved highest ever operating profit and margin during the quarter.</li>
<li>Sustained growth momentum across all the businesses along with enhanced profitability drove Q1FY25 performance. Execution success of differentiated pipeline in the U.S. and outperformance of India business were particularly noteworthy.</li>
<li>Despite delivering 21% YoY revenue growth in Q1FY25, Zydus reiterated FY25 revenue growth guidance of high teens. The company expects EBITDA margin of 28.5–29.0% for FY25.</li>
</ul>



Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN) reported stellar performance in Q1FY25, with all key parameters improved sequentially and YoY. The company achieved highest ever operating profit and margin during the quarter.
Sustained growth momentum across all the businesses along with enhanced profitability drove Q1FY25 performance. Execution success of differentiated pipeline in the U.S. and outperformance of India business were particularly noteworthy.
Despite delivering 21% YoY revenue growth in Q1FY25, Zydus reiterated FY25 revenue growth guidance of high teens. The company expects EBITDA margin of 28.5–29.0% for FY25.


Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN): Q1FY25 PAT Jumps 31%; Increasing Focus on US To Augur Well

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Q1FY25 results of the leading Indian pharmaceutical companies showed healthy and broad-based growth of the Indian pharmaceutical market, which grew 8.7% in Q1FY25.</li>
<li>Most of the top listed players registered double-digit revenue growth from their respective India formulation segments. Focus on chronic therapies remained major growth driver.</li>
<li>The Nifty Pharma Index has outperformed the benchmark Nifty 50, rising 32% YTD. The benchmark index has gained just 13% over the same period.</li>
</ul>


Q1FY25 results of the leading Indian pharmaceutical companies showed healthy and broad-based growth of the Indian pharmaceutical market, which grew 8.7% in Q1FY25.
Most of the top listed players registered double-digit revenue growth from their respective India formulation segments. Focus on chronic therapies remained major growth driver.
The Nifty Pharma Index has outperformed the benchmark Nifty 50, rising 32% YTD. The benchmark index has gained just 13% over the same period.


Indian Pharmaceutical Market: On A Healthy Growth Path; Momentum to Continue in Rest of the Year

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

India

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd., is a pharmaceutical company. The Company develops generic drugs for inflammation, metabolic disorders, and pain.

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Glenmark Pharmaceuticals (GNP IN)

Glenmark Pharma- Value Erosion Not Something New

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals FY24 results show 85% decrease in PBT due to exceptional items like sale gains and asset impairments. Regular impairments...

Nitin Mangal

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN): Q1FY25 PAT Jumps 31%; Increasing Focus on US To Augur Well

Zydus Lifesciences reports stellar Q1FY25 performance with highest ever operating profit and margin, driven by the US and India. The company...

Tina Banerjee

Indian Pharmaceutical Market: On A Healthy Growth Path; Momentum to Continue in Rest of the Year

Indian pharmaceutical market grew 8.7% in Q1FY25. Most of the top players reported double-digit revenue growth in domestic market. Nifty Pharma...

Tina Banerjee

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

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Glenmark Pharma- Value Erosion Not Something New

​Glenmark Pharmaceuticals FY24 results show 85% decrease in PBT due to exceptional items like sale gains and asset impairments. Regular impairments...

Nitin Mangal

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN): Q1FY25 PAT Jumps 31%; Increasing Focus on US To Augur Well

​Zydus Lifesciences reports stellar Q1FY25 performance with highest ever operating profit and margin, driven by the US and India. The company...

Tina Banerjee

Indian Pharmaceutical Market: On A Healthy Growth Path; Momentum to Continue in Rest of the Year

​Indian pharmaceutical market grew 8.7% in Q1FY25. Most of the top players reported double-digit revenue growth in domestic market. Nifty Pharma...

Tina Banerjee

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals FY24 results show 85% decrease in PBT due to exceptional items like sale gains and asset impairments. Regular impairments...

Zydus Lifesciences reports stellar Q1FY25 performance with highest ever operating profit and margin, driven by the US and India. The company...

Indian pharmaceutical market grew 8.7% in Q1FY25. Most of the top players reported double-digit revenue growth in domestic market. Nifty Pharma...