Head of Trading/ Partner, AceGama Advisors

Sankalp Singh

Head of Trading/ Partner

Proprietary Trading Desk

AceGama Advisors

Trading desk specializing in the Listed & OTC options strategies for risk management & investment purposes.

Event-Driven

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

<ul>
<li>IVs steady in spite of significant drop in Indices. Nifty50 Monthly IVs flat at 12.7% &amp; BankNifty Monthly IVs mildly higher to 14.9%. </li>
<li>Paring back of Skew-harvesting recommended. RR levels look overly compressed against backdrop of index weakness</li>
<li>Multiple market holidays pushed short-dated IVs lower. Vol term structure moved deeper into Contango,  Weekly vs. Monthly vol-differential now at -1.9 vols.</li>
</ul>


IVs steady in spite of significant drop in Indices. Nifty50 Monthly IVs flat at 12.7% &amp; BankNifty Monthly IVs mildly higher to 14.9%. 
Paring back of Skew-harvesting recommended. RR levels look overly compressed against backdrop of index weakness
Multiple market holidays pushed short-dated IVs lower. Vol term structure moved deeper into Contango,  Weekly vs. Monthly vol-differential now at -1.9 vols.


EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Subdued in Spite of Weakening Equities. Skew Looks Overly Compressed.

<ul>
<li>Passing of tier-1 event risks resulted in risk premia compression. Nifty50 IVs back down to 12.8% as a result. IV selloff exacerbated by the upcoming market holidays.    </li>
<li>Vol Regime: Fears of prolonged "High &amp; Up" vol-state were quashed. Vol Regime Model has switched to "High &amp; Down" state. Re-establish Short Vega/ Smile-selling structures. </li>
<li>Markdowns reflected in Vol Surface characteristics - Term Structure/ Smile/ Skew. PCR &amp; OI indicate low participation in Put-strikes. </li>
</ul>


Passing of tier-1 event risks resulted in risk premia compression. Nifty50 IVs back down to 12.8% as a result. IV selloff exacerbated by the upcoming market holidays.    
Vol Regime: Fears of prolonged "High &amp; Up" vol-state were quashed. Vol Regime Model has switched to "High &amp; Down" state. Re-establish Short Vega/ Smile-selling structures. 
Markdowns reflected in Vol Surface characteristics - Term Structure/ Smile/ Skew. PCR &amp; OI indicate low participation in Put-strikes. 


EQD / NSE Vol Update / Risk Premia Marked Down as Tier1 Event Risks Drop off the Calendar

<ul>
<li>IVs continue moving higher in spite of low RV. Nifty50 &amp; BankNifty Monthly IVs at 14.7% &amp; 16.8% respectively. Re-pricing exaggerated in Short-dated options as they cover U.S. Elections.</li>
<li>Vol-Regime Switching Model now in "High &amp; Up" state. Vol-state switch triggers scale back of risk-premia capture strategies. Consider long Gamma exposure via buying Straddles on a delta-hedged basis.</li>
<li>Higher IVs not translating to Skew/ Smile extensions. Vol-curve Term-structure has transitioned from Contango to Backwardation - front-end vol-differential at +1.6 vols.</li>
</ul>


IVs continue moving higher in spite of low RV. Nifty50 &amp; BankNifty Monthly IVs at 14.7% &amp; 16.8% respectively. Re-pricing exaggerated in Short-dated options as they cover U.S. Elections.
Vol-Regime Switching Model now in "High &amp; Up" state. Vol-state switch triggers scale back of risk-premia capture strategies. Consider long Gamma exposure via buying Straddles on a delta-hedged basis.
Higher IVs not translating to Skew/ Smile extensions. Vol-curve Term-structure has transitioned from Contango to Backwardation - front-end vol-differential at +1.6 vols.


EQD / NSE Vol Update / US Elections & FOMC Event-Risk Push Vol Regime into High & Up State

<ul>
<li>Risk premia continues to re-price higher with Equity Indices trading decisively below critical levels. Nifty50 Monthly IVs back at 14.0% &amp; BankNifty IVs at 16.0%. </li>
<li>Vol-Regime still in "High &amp; Down" state - chances of switching to "High &amp; Up" are increasing.</li>
<li>Options Markets avoid panic mode - orderly declines in the Index &amp; upcoming holiday-shortened week being the contributing factors.</li>
</ul>


Risk premia continues to re-price higher with Equity Indices trading decisively below critical levels. Nifty50 Monthly IVs back at 14.0% &amp; BankNifty IVs at 16.0%. 
Vol-Regime still in "High &amp; Down" state - chances of switching to "High &amp; Up" are increasing.
Options Markets avoid panic mode - orderly declines in the Index &amp; upcoming holiday-shortened week being the contributing factors.


EQD / NSE Vol Update / Equities Continue Their Decline .. Options Markets Avoid Panic Mode for Now.

<ul>
<li>SEBI-Mandated structural changes continue to percolate through for Options Markets. Position limits &amp; lot sizes have been increased drastically, tilting regulations away from Retail &amp; towards more Institutional participation.</li>
<li>IV levels are in the middle of their 12-month ranges. Vol-Regime Model currently in "High &amp; Down" state - grind lower in IVs projected. </li>
<li>In spite of a stronger underlying index, upcoming Bank earnings results have supported BankNifty IVs.  </li>
</ul>


SEBI-Mandated structural changes continue to percolate through for Options Markets. Position limits &amp; lot sizes have been increased drastically, tilting regulations away from Retail &amp; towards more Institutional participation.
IV levels are in the middle of their 12-month ranges. Vol-Regime Model currently in "High &amp; Down" state - grind lower in IVs projected. 
In spite of a stronger underlying index, upcoming Bank earnings results have supported BankNifty IVs.  


EQD / NSE Vol Update / Options Mkt. Structural Changes Incoming: 15x Position Limits + 3x Lot Size