Head of Trading/ Partner, AceGama Advisors

Sankalp Singh

Head of Trading/ Partner

Proprietary Trading Desk

AceGama Advisors

Trading desk specializing in the Listed & OTC options strategies for risk management & investment purposes.

Event-Driven

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

<ul>
<li>Implied Volatilities (IVs) continued to rise as the underlying index tried to break above critical resistance - marking a break-down of usual spot-vol correlations.</li>
<li>Vol surface smile &amp; skew characteristics held steady at the 25-Delta point of curve, while dynamics at the 10-Delta zone extended further.</li>
<li>Nifty50 Back-end Term Structure is in Backwardation as Monthly options enjoy markups based on July-end Indian Budget release.   </li>
</ul>


Implied Volatilities (IVs) continued to rise as the underlying index tried to break above critical resistance - marking a break-down of usual spot-vol correlations.
Vol surface smile &amp; skew characteristics held steady at the 25-Delta point of curve, while dynamics at the 10-Delta zone extended further.
Nifty50 Back-end Term Structure is in Backwardation as Monthly options enjoy markups based on July-end Indian Budget release.   


EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Rise in Conjunction with Equities Counter to Regular Spot-Vol Correlation

<ul>
<li>Implied Volatilities (IVs) stabilized over the week after falling dramatically since the 04-June-2024 India General Election results.</li>
<li>No tactical changes required while IVs are stable &amp; "High &amp; Down" Vol-state is maintained.</li>
<li>Vol Curve continues to be in Contango. Lack of significant event risk should keep term structure locked in its current orientation. </li>
</ul>


Implied Volatilities (IVs) stabilized over the week after falling dramatically since the 04-June-2024 India General Election results.
No tactical changes required while IVs are stable &amp; "High &amp; Down" Vol-state is maintained.
Vol Curve continues to be in Contango. Lack of significant event risk should keep term structure locked in its current orientation. 


EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Stabilize After Falling Dramatically over past 2 Weeks

<ul>
<li>IVs move lower at an accelerated pace driven by holiday shortened week &amp; risk-seeking sentiment.  </li>
<li>Vol-Regime has switched to "High &amp; Down" state, projecting an elongated period of falling IV levels. </li>
<li>Nifty50 Smile &amp; Skew dynamics continue to compress. Vol term structure has moved from Backwardation to Contango in conjunction with falling IVs</li>
</ul>


IVs move lower at an accelerated pace driven by holiday shortened week &amp; risk-seeking sentiment.  
Vol-Regime has switched to "High &amp; Down" state, projecting an elongated period of falling IV levels. 
Nifty50 Smile &amp; Skew dynamics continue to compress. Vol term structure has moved from Backwardation to Contango in conjunction with falling IVs


EQD / Weekly Vol Update / Positive Risk-Sentiment & Short Trading Week Put Pressure on IV Levels

<ul>
<li>IVs were crushed in the aftermath of Election results &amp; in spite of lingering political instability &amp; significant moves in RV.</li>
<li>Vol-Regime Switching Model is holding at "High &amp; Up" state. Probability of switching to "High &amp; Down" state has increased significantly.</li>
<li>Vol term structure is still in Backwardation - should transition to Contango as IV &amp; RV drift lower.</li>
</ul>


IVs were crushed in the aftermath of Election results &amp; in spite of lingering political instability &amp; significant moves in RV.
Vol-Regime Switching Model is holding at "High &amp; Up" state. Probability of switching to "High &amp; Down" state has increased significantly.
Vol term structure is still in Backwardation - should transition to Contango as IV &amp; RV drift lower.


EQD / Weekly Vol Update / IVs Crushed Post Elections but Realized Vol Does Not Disappoint

<ul>
<li>IVs Spike with Election Results release on 04-June-2024. Post event there's a risk of large IV-crush regardless of the result.</li>
<li>Current Vol-state is "High &amp; Up". Wait for the switch to "High &amp; Down" before initiating new risk-premia harvesting strategies</li>
<li>Weekly IVs have received large markups due to elections. Entire Vol Curve is now in Backwardation -  curve inversion at extreme levels</li>
</ul>


IVs Spike with Election Results release on 04-June-2024. Post event there's a risk of large IV-crush regardless of the result.
Current Vol-state is "High &amp; Up". Wait for the switch to "High &amp; Down" before initiating new risk-premia harvesting strategies
Weekly IVs have received large markups due to elections. Entire Vol Curve is now in Backwardation -  curve inversion at extreme levels


EQD / Weekly Vol Update / IVs Spike with Election Results Round the Corner