External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Vietcap

Vietcap

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Macroeconomics

<ul><li>No major trading partner manipulated its currency: The US Treasury issued its November 2024 report “Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States,” (the Report), which reviews the four quarters through June 2024 (the review period).</li><li>In this report, the US Treasury found that no major trading partner met all three criteria (significant bilateral trade surplus with the US, material current account surplus, and persistent, one-sided foreign exchange intervention) under the Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015 (the 2015 Act) or engaged in conduct of the kind described in Section 3004 of the 1988 Act (currency developments, exchange rate practices, foreign exchange reserve coverage, capital controls, and monetary policy) during the review period. </li><li>Vietnam remains on the US Currency Monitoring List: In line with our expectation mentioned in our Macro Note published on June 24, 2024, Vietnam remains on the Treasury’s Monitoring List (currency manipulator watchlist) in the review period along with six other economies: China, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, Germany, and South Korea (Malaysia was removed and South Korea was added).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

No major trading partner manipulated its currency: The US Treasury issued its November 2024 report “Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States,” (the Report), which reviews the four quarters through June 2024 (the review period).In this report, the US Treasury found that no major trading partner met all three criteria (significant bilateral trade surplus with the US, material current account surplus, and persistent, one-sided foreign exchange intervention) under the Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015 (the 2015 Act) or engaged in conduct of the kind described in Section 3004 of the 1988 Act (currency developments, exchange rate practices, foreign exchange reserve coverage, capital controls, and monetary policy) during the review period. Vietnam remains on the US Currency Monitoring List: In line with our expectation mentioned in our Macro Note published on June 24, 2024, Vietnam remains on the Treasury’s Monitoring List (currency manipulator watchlist) in the review period along with six other economies: China, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, Germany, and South Korea (Malaysia was removed and South Korea was added).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Vietnam Macro Note - Vietnam remains on US Currency Monitoring List

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Tougher US trade policies with China and potential retaliation could renew a trade war that weighs on global trade and oil consumption: US President-elect Donald Trump’s threat of a 60% tariff on Chinese goods raises risks of a new trade war with China.</li><li>The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that if higher tariffs affect a “sizeable swath” of world trade by mid-2025, global output could be reduced by 0.8% in 2025 and by 1.3% in 2026.</li><li>A UBS economist estimates that a 60% tariff on Chinese imports would cut China’s GDP growth by 2.5 percentage points a year later.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tougher US trade policies with China and potential retaliation could renew a trade war that weighs on global trade and oil consumption: US President-elect Donald Trump’s threat of a 60% tariff on Chinese goods raises risks of a new trade war with China.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that if higher tariffs affect a “sizeable swath” of world trade by mid-2025, global output could be reduced by 0.8% in 2025 and by 1.3% in 2026.A UBS economist estimates that a 60% tariff on Chinese imports would cut China’s GDP growth by 2.5 percentage points a year later.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Oil & Gas Sector Update - Lowering oil price forecasts on increased risks to global trade

Equity Bottom-Up

Airports Corporation Of Viet Nam / Equity Bottom-Up

Airports Corporation of Vietnam JSC provides airport operations. The Company is involved in investment, construction, management, and maintenance of airports. Airports Corporation of Vietnam operates in Vietnam.

Airports Corporation Of Viet Nam (ACV VN)

<ul><li>We increase our target price (TP) for ACV by 18% but reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating as ACV’s share price has increased by 11% in the last three months.</li><li>We adjust our valuation approach from a 100% DCF method to a blend of DCF (70% weight) and EV/EBITDA multiple (30% weight) to mitigate the impact of heavy capex for Long Thanh International Airport (LTA) in 2025-26F and high interest expenses from 2027F onward.</li><li>We apply an EV/EBITDA multiple of 20.0x, consistent with ACV’s 2017-2024 average (excluding 2020-2022). We believe ACV merits valuation multiples at least equal to its historical average.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We increase our target price (TP) for ACV by 18% but reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating as ACV’s share price has increased by 11% in the last three months.We adjust our valuation approach from a 100% DCF method to a blend of DCF (70% weight) and EV/EBITDA multiple (30% weight) to mitigate the impact of heavy capex for Long Thanh International Airport (LTA) in 2025-26F and high interest expenses from 2027F onward.We apply an EV/EBITDA multiple of 20.0x, consistent with ACV’s 2017-2024 average (excluding 2020-2022). We believe ACV merits valuation multiples at least equal to its historical average.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ACV - Strong International Traffic Recovery, Softer Near-Term Domestic Pax Outlook

Gemadept Corporation is a shipping company.  The Company's business activities include port operations, 
container liner service, shipping and forwarding agency logistics, project cargo transport, real 
estate, and financial investment.

<ul><li>We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating for GMD and raise our target price (TP) by 8% to VND69,800/share.</li><li>Our higher TP is mainly due to a 16% higher valuation for its core businesses (i.e., ports and consolidated logistics), and 7% increase in Gemalink’s (GML) valuation, partly offset by a 25% reduction in our valuation for SCS, as outlined in our November 7 SCS Update Report. </li><li>Our higher valuation for the core businesses is because we (1) roll our TP horizon forward to end-2025, (2) raise 2025-29F container throughput by ~15% p.a., and (3) increase average 2025-29F port GPM by ~100bps p.a. due to higher projected throughput boosting utilization rates.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating for GMD and raise our target price (TP) by 8% to VND69,800/share.Our higher TP is mainly due to a 16% higher valuation for its core businesses (i.e., ports and consolidated logistics), and 7% increase in Gemalink’s (GML) valuation, partly offset by a 25% reduction in our valuation for SCS, as outlined in our November 7 SCS Update Report. Our higher valuation for the core businesses is because we (1) roll our TP horizon forward to end-2025, (2) raise 2025-29F container throughput by ~15% p.a., and (3) increase average 2025-29F port GPM by ~100bps p.a. due to higher projected throughput boosting utilization rates.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

GMD VN - Capacity Constraints to Cap 2025F Earnings

<ul><li>Production continued growing after Typhoon Yagi: In 10M 2024, the overall IIP and manufacturing IIP increased 8.3% YoY and 9.6% YoY, respectively.</li><li>We expect that the recovery in new orders reported in the latest PMI report could support production towards year-end while more firms could return to full capacity towards the holiday season (Christmas, the New Year, and Lunar New Year).</li><li>Retail sales posted decent growth: Total retail sales rose 8.5% YoY in 10M 2024. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Production continued growing after Typhoon Yagi: In 10M 2024, the overall IIP and manufacturing IIP increased 8.3% YoY and 9.6% YoY, respectively.We expect that the recovery in new orders reported in the latest PMI report could support production towards year-end while more firms could return to full capacity towards the holiday season (Christmas, the New Year, and Lunar New Year).Retail sales posted decent growth: Total retail sales rose 8.5% YoY in 10M 2024. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Update - Macro Data Remains Solid in October