Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

Platinum is a chemical element with symbol Pt and atomic number 78. It is a dense, malleable, ductile, highly unreactive, precious, gray-white transition metal. Its name is derived from the Spanish term platina, which is literally translated into "little silver". Platinum is a member of the platinum group of elements and group 10 of the periodic table of elements. It has six naturally occurring isotopes. It is one of the rarer elements in Earth's crust with an average abundance of approximately 5 μg/kg. It occurs in some nickel and copper ores along with some native deposits, mostly in South Africa, which accounts for 80% of the world production. Because of its scarcity in Earth's crust, only a few hundred tonnes are produced annually, and given its important uses, it is highly valuable and is a major precious metal commodity.

<ul><li>Platinum continues to look strong, as does copper. Platinum tends to deliver above average returns during December and February, according to recent seasonal stats.</li><li>Over the last 25 years, platinum has produced an average return of +7.79% from December 6 to February 20, with a win rate of 84% and an annualized return of +43.29%, according to <em>Seasonax</em>. (we can verify this trend)</li><li>Copper on the other hand remains more of a tariff play.</li></ul>

Platinum continues to look strong, as does copper. Platinum tends to deliver above average returns during December and February, according to recent seasonal stats.Over the last 25 years, platinum has produced an average return of +7.79% from December 6 to February 20, with a win rate of 84% and an annualized return of +43.29%, according to Seasonax. (we can verify this trend)Copper on the other hand remains more of a tariff play.

Platinum’s Year End Bull Run? // La Niña Update

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

<ul><li>Both precious and industrial metals jumped significantly up over the past week. Gold, Silver, Platinum and also Palladium are currently basically in the same trading regime.</li><li>Copper looks a bit different but also bullish, after breaking an H&amp;S pattern to the upside, providing both systematic and discretionary investors with a great setup.</li><li>Bintas built Trafigura’s copper book into the world’s largest. Now at Mercuria, he’s driving a major expansion into metals.</li></ul>

Both precious and industrial metals jumped significantly up over the past week. Gold, Silver, Platinum and also Palladium are currently basically in the same trading regime.Copper looks a bit different but also bullish, after breaking an H&amp;S pattern to the upside, providing both systematic and discretionary investors with a great setup.Bintas built Trafigura’s copper book into the world’s largest. Now at Mercuria, he’s driving a major expansion into metals.

(Another) Industrial Metals Breakout // La Niña Weather Scenario

ICE US - Cocoa Futures
The Cocoa contract is the world benchmark for the global cocoa market. The contract prices the physical delivery of exchange-grade product from a variety of African, Asian and Central and South American origins to any of five US delivery ports (Port of New York District, Delaware River Port District, Port of Hampton Roads, Port of Albany, or Port of Baltimore). Calls for delivery of any kind of cocoa bean as   long as it meets FDA standards for importation.   
Standards: Established by Exch. licensed graders  in accordance with specified tolerances for defects, bean count, bean size and other standards.

<ul><li>Many commodities are currently in a range pattern after they were in a prolonged bull streak for months.</li><li>This is nothing unusual and happens all the time within healthy uptrends.</li><li>BUT there are also instances when prolonged bull markets tend to end - due to changing fundamentals…like for example cocoa.</li></ul>

Many commodities are currently in a range pattern after they were in a prolonged bull streak for months.This is nothing unusual and happens all the time within healthy uptrends.BUT there are also instances when prolonged bull markets tend to end - due to changing fundamentals…like for example cocoa.

Will the Coffee Trade become the new Cocoa?

<ul><li>Our strategy approach is to filter various information sources and apply our clear investment process on top of it.</li><li>There are two reasons for us to enter a trade: …our quant system tells us to do so …or we make a discretionary manager decision based on market fundamentals that the quant system will only grasp with a time-lag</li><li>While not only moving sideways, the oil complex is currently drastically underperforming other parts of the commodity complex.</li></ul>

Our strategy approach is to filter various information sources and apply our clear investment process on top of it.There are two reasons for us to enter a trade: …our quant system tells us to do so …or we make a discretionary manager decision based on market fundamentals that the quant system will only grasp with a time-lagWhile not only moving sideways, the oil complex is currently drastically underperforming other parts of the commodity complex.

Be Careful With Metals & Why we currently don’t touch Oil Markets

<ul><li>Live and feeder cattle futures gapped lower on the open Friday, with some feeder cattle contracts touching even limit down - as panic selling hit the complex.</li><li>The reason for the panic selling: president Trump.</li><li>In an announcement on Thursday evening, Trump hinted that there could be a near-term deal reached to lower beef prices. How exactly such a deal would look like isn’t clear, though.</li></ul>

Live and feeder cattle futures gapped lower on the open Friday, with some feeder cattle contracts touching even limit down - as panic selling hit the complex.The reason for the panic selling: president Trump.In an announcement on Thursday evening, Trump hinted that there could be a near-term deal reached to lower beef prices. How exactly such a deal would look like isn’t clear, though.