Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

ICE US - Cocoa Futures
The Cocoa contract is the world benchmark for the global cocoa market. The contract prices the physical delivery of exchange-grade product from a variety of African, Asian and Central and South American origins to any of five US delivery ports (Port of New York District, Delaware River Port District, Port of Hampton Roads, Port of Albany, or Port of Baltimore). Calls for delivery of any kind of cocoa bean as   long as it meets FDA standards for importation.   
Standards: Established by Exch. licensed graders  in accordance with specified tolerances for defects, bean count, bean size and other standards.

<ul><li>Latest CTA-Flow Forecast CTA positioning and UBS' flow model indicate slightly bullish momentum for some agriculture commodities as well as energy and on the flip side bearish momentum for precious metals and industrial metals.</li><li>Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our market setups.</li><li>“In currencies, the US dollar gained renewed momentum from Trump’s win, with the 1.7% rise in the DXY index on 6 November the largest one-day advance in two years.</li></ul>

Latest CTA-Flow Forecast CTA positioning and UBS' flow model indicate slightly bullish momentum for some agriculture commodities as well as energy and on the flip side bearish momentum for precious metals and industrial metals.Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our market setups.“In currencies, the US dollar gained renewed momentum from Trump’s win, with the 1.7% rise in the DXY index on 6 November the largest one-day advance in two years.

Hershey’s Warns About Cocoa Inflation // Latest CTA-Flow Forecast

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

<ul><li>Trump Wins - Do Farmers Lose? Trump won another presidency.</li><li>In a landslide win, the Republicans secured even both houses - the White House and the Senate.</li><li>I won’t go in details about what that result means for my beloved Americans and whether it’s good or bad.</li></ul>

Trump Wins - Do Farmers Lose? Trump won another presidency.In a landslide win, the Republicans secured even both houses - the White House and the Senate.I won’t go in details about what that result means for my beloved Americans and whether it’s good or bad.

<ul><li>Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness Gold demand for technology purposes is still up but the pace continues to decline for the second quarter in a row now, as the latest data by the World Gold Council for Q3 showed.</li><li>The total gold demand (inclusive of OTC investment) gained meanwhile 5% y/y to 1,313 tonnes.</li><li>Global gold ETF inflows (95t) were a major driver of growth as Q3 was the first positive quarter for ETF flows since Q1’22.</li></ul>

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness Gold demand for technology purposes is still up but the pace continues to decline for the second quarter in a row now, as the latest data by the World Gold Council for Q3 showed.The total gold demand (inclusive of OTC investment) gained meanwhile 5% y/y to 1,313 tonnes.Global gold ETF inflows (95t) were a major driver of growth as Q3 was the first positive quarter for ETF flows since Q1’22.

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness

<ul><li>Futures Trading is Booming - due to Weather Risks Agricultural futures and options closed Q3 with 10% growth compared to Q3 2023.</li><li>This surge was notably fueled by a record 1.6M ADV in August, marking a 19% increase in growth year over year.</li><li>Drought conditions in Brazil, poor weather in the Black sea, low river levels, increased fund participation and low cattle herd have traders turning to Agricultural futures and options as essential tools for managing risk.</li></ul>

Futures Trading is Booming - due to Weather Risks Agricultural futures and options closed Q3 with 10% growth compared to Q3 2023.This surge was notably fueled by a record 1.6M ADV in August, marking a 19% increase in growth year over year.Drought conditions in Brazil, poor weather in the Black sea, low river levels, increased fund participation and low cattle herd have traders turning to Agricultural futures and options as essential tools for managing risk.

The Cattle Cycle - Higher Prices for Longer?

Corn No. 2 Yellow at par and substitutions at differentials established by the exchange.

<ul><li>China’s Corn Under Extreme Weather Threat China's corn production is currently under pressure due to extreme weather events in the country.</li><li>Still, as it seems this might not be enough to even lift prices up a little bit. Local prices have ticked higher since the end of September, but they’re still close to four-year lows.</li><li>Stockpiles of corn are plentiful, and demand is currently sluggish as the second-largest economy of the world battles its own economy demons at the moment.</li></ul>

China’s Corn Under Extreme Weather Threat China's corn production is currently under pressure due to extreme weather events in the country.Still, as it seems this might not be enough to even lift prices up a little bit. Local prices have ticked higher since the end of September, but they’re still close to four-year lows.Stockpiles of corn are plentiful, and demand is currently sluggish as the second-largest economy of the world battles its own economy demons at the moment.

China’s Corn Under Extreme Weather Threat // Bad News Again for Orange Production