Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

<ul><li>CTA Positioning Update The latest CTA picture by UBS shows that managed money is currently maxed long coffee and oil and max short corn, soybeans cotton and lean hogs.</li><li>The contrarian ideas would speculate on the exact opposite of this positioning. On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning.</li><li>On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning.</li></ul>

CTA Positioning Update The latest CTA picture by UBS shows that managed money is currently maxed long coffee and oil and max short corn, soybeans cotton and lean hogs.The contrarian ideas would speculate on the exact opposite of this positioning. On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning.On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning.

The Return of La Niña // CTA Positioning Update

Platinum is a chemical element with symbol Pt and atomic number 78. It is a dense, malleable, ductile, highly unreactive, precious, gray-white transition metal. Its name is derived from the Spanish term platina, which is literally translated into "little silver". Platinum is a member of the platinum group of elements and group 10 of the periodic table of elements. It has six naturally occurring isotopes. It is one of the rarer elements in Earth's crust with an average abundance of approximately 5 μg/kg. It occurs in some nickel and copper ores along with some native deposits, mostly in South Africa, which accounts for 80% of the world production. Because of its scarcity in Earth's crust, only a few hundred tonnes are produced annually, and given its important uses, it is highly valuable and is a major precious metal commodity.

<ul><li>It Got Quiet around Platinum and Palladium While sales of EVs around the world continue to surge, it kind of became obvious that BEVs or mild hybrids are the choice for many consumers going forward.</li><li>Those systems offer people the option to drive fully electric within the city and use the combustion system for further destinations.</li><li>If the demand for BEVs continues to surge, two metals could be supported by that fact which builds the investment case for platinum and palladium.</li></ul>

It Got Quiet around Platinum and Palladium While sales of EVs around the world continue to surge, it kind of became obvious that BEVs or mild hybrids are the choice for many consumers going forward.Those systems offer people the option to drive fully electric within the city and use the combustion system for further destinations.If the demand for BEVs continues to surge, two metals could be supported by that fact which builds the investment case for platinum and palladium.

It Got Quiet around Platinum and Palladium

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

<ul><li>ISM vs Commodity Prices The latest ISM Manufacturing data came in lower than expected. It almost seems like economic momentum in the US is fading.</li><li>But on the other hand, commodities that are most sensitive to change in economic momentum, namely copper and crude oil, remain in a sideways consolidation or in the case of crude are already breaking out to new short-term highs.</li><li>That price action behavior opens up a gap between both metrics, and one thing is clear.</li></ul>

ISM vs Commodity Prices The latest ISM Manufacturing data came in lower than expected. It almost seems like economic momentum in the US is fading.But on the other hand, commodities that are most sensitive to change in economic momentum, namely copper and crude oil, remain in a sideways consolidation or in the case of crude are already breaking out to new short-term highs.That price action behavior opens up a gap between both metrics, and one thing is clear.

ISM vs Commodity Prices // Upcoming Rice Price Explosion?

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

<ul><li>Fund managers recently reduced their broad commodity position as well as energy position, compared to last month, according to the latest BofA survey.</li><li>Compared to the long-term z-score, fund managers are now heavily under-positioned in energy but close to neutral positioned in broad commodities.</li><li>In a recent note, Goldman Sachs explained their views about commodities if inflation would re-accelerate again - or in detail beat the market estimates and lead to an inflation upside surprise.</li></ul>

Fund managers recently reduced their broad commodity position as well as energy position, compared to last month, according to the latest BofA survey.Compared to the long-term z-score, fund managers are now heavily under-positioned in energy but close to neutral positioned in broad commodities.In a recent note, Goldman Sachs explained their views about commodities if inflation would re-accelerate again - or in detail beat the market estimates and lead to an inflation upside surprise.

<ul><li>Be Careful Precious Metals Bulls Another friendly reminder that positioning in copper remains super speculative bullish - aka, there is much room for speculators to reduce their bullish bets again.</li><li>The same can be said for gold and copper, but not for crude oil.</li><li>Once again, there seems to be less demand than people realize - especially from China.</li></ul>

Be Careful Precious Metals Bulls Another friendly reminder that positioning in copper remains super speculative bullish - aka, there is much room for speculators to reduce their bullish bets again.The same can be said for gold and copper, but not for crude oil.Once again, there seems to be less demand than people realize - especially from China.

Be Careful Precious Metals Bulls & Tailrisk Secular Inflation