Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Despite gold hitting record highs this month, ownership of key gold mining stocks among EM managers remains muted.</li>
<li>AngloGold Ashanti and Harmony Gold Mining have both experienced consistent gains in ownership since their 2023 lows.</li>
<li>Oaktree, Overstone and Vontobel EM strategies hold some of the larger portfolio positions in select Gold stocks.</li>
</ul>


Despite gold hitting record highs this month, ownership of key gold mining stocks among EM managers remains muted.
AngloGold Ashanti and Harmony Gold Mining have both experienced consistent gains in ownership since their 2023 lows.
Oaktree, Overstone and Vontobel EM strategies hold some of the larger portfolio positions in select Gold stocks.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China and HK stocks dominate the list of rising exposures among EM funds</li>
<li>Trip.com, CATL, and Xiaomi have reached new highs following sustained rotation, while Meituan and JD.com are rebounding after periods of consolidation</li>
<li>Aubrey and Putnam initiate stakes in Xiaomi, GIB open Trip.com exposure, and the Alger EM fund enters Meituan.</li>
</ul>


China and HK stocks dominate the list of rising exposures among EM funds
Trip.com, CATL, and Xiaomi have reached new highs following sustained rotation, while Meituan and JD.com are rebounding after periods of consolidation
Aubrey and Putnam initiate stakes in Xiaomi, GIB open Trip.com exposure, and the Alger EM fund enters Meituan.


EM Stock Rotation: China & HK Stocks Take Centre Stage

<ul>
<li>Bank Of China Ltd, Celltrion Inc and Li Auto top the list as the largest index constituents held by less that 5% of active Asia Ex-Japan funds.</li>
<li>Unloved stock numbers increase after China A-share inclusion in 2018/19 and further amplified by post-2020 restrictions on select Chinese military-linked firms.</li>
<li>Select funds do own sizeable positions in these stocks.  Are they the ultimate contrarian trades?</li>
</ul>


Bank Of China Ltd, Celltrion Inc and Li Auto top the list as the largest index constituents held by less that 5% of active Asia Ex-Japan funds.
Unloved stock numbers increase after China A-share inclusion in 2018/19 and further amplified by post-2020 restrictions on select Chinese military-linked firms.
Select funds do own sizeable positions in these stocks.  Are they the ultimate contrarian trades?


Equity Bottom-Up

AIA Group Limited offers insurance and financial services. The Company writes life insurance for individuals, businesses, accident, and health insurance, as well as retirement planning and wealth management services.

<ul>
<li>Ownership levels in AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) and HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) have started to reverse from the highs. </li>
<li>SK Hynix, Meituan and Mediatek Inc all make recent gains in fund ownership, while HDFC Bank and AIA Group see closures.</li>
<li>UBS in AIA Group and TT International in HDFC Bank lead the fund-level closures.</li>
</ul>


Ownership levels in AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) and HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) have started to reverse from the highs. 
SK Hynix, Meituan and Mediatek Inc all make recent gains in fund ownership, while HDFC Bank and AIA Group see closures.
UBS in AIA Group and TT International in HDFC Bank lead the fund-level closures.


AIA Group & HDFC Bank: Big Hitters Lose Momentum

<ul>
<li>Malaysian ownership continues its upward trend after a 10-year bear market in positioning from 2014 to 2023</li>
<li>Longer-Term ownership declines in Malaysian Financials and Industrials are starting to reverse.</li>
<li>Only 3 companies are owned by more than 10% of funds, with CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB MK)  the clear leader.</li>
</ul>


Malaysian ownership continues its upward trend after a 10-year bear market in positioning from 2014 to 2023
Longer-Term ownership declines in Malaysian Financials and Industrials are starting to reverse.
Only 3 companies are owned by more than 10% of funds, with CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB MK)  the clear leader.


Malaysia: Sentiment Change Drives Positioning Off the Lows

Steven Holden is the CEO and Founder of Copley Fund Research, an independent provider of research on equity fund positioning and performance.  Set up in 2014, Copley focuses on global, global emerging market, US, Asia Ex-Japan and China active equity funds, covering over $4tr in assets across 1300 active managers.  The company provides data and analysis on market trends, manager exposures and active fund performance to an audience of investment managers, pension funds and fund selectors worldwide.  Mr Holden’s 14-year investment banking career started in 2000, where he worked for Morgan Stanley as an equity derivative trader focused on emerging markets in London.  Following this, he spent 4 years at Citibank in London and Hong Kong as an Executive Director in derivative sales, focused again on emerging markets.