External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

<ul><li>Traders and investors bolstered bullish positioning in the USD in the run-up to the US election but have not added significantly to aggregate net USD longs in its immediate aftermath.</li><li>CFTC data for the week through November 12th shows overall NonCommercial (speculative) USD net longs (aggregated across the major currencies we monitor for this report) holding at USD17.7bn, very close to levels prevailing in late October.</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged traders (hedge funds) increasing moderate net long USD positioning slightly in the latest week while Institutional (real money) traders pared net USD shorts slightly.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Traders and investors bolstered bullish positioning in the USD in the run-up to the US election but have not added significantly to aggregate net USD longs in its immediate aftermath.CFTC data for the week through November 12th shows overall NonCommercial (speculative) USD net longs (aggregated across the major currencies we monitor for this report) holding at USD17.7bn, very close to levels prevailing in late October.Additional data shows Leveraged traders (hedge funds) increasing moderate net long USD positioning slightly in the latest week while Institutional (real money) traders pared net USD shorts slightly.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly C FTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Steaadies After Election

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

<ul><li>The CAD has weakened to its lowest since 2020 in the wake of the US presidential election.</li><li>Broad strength in the USD followed the result as markets anticipated pro-growth and potentially inflationary policy moves by the incoming Trump administration.</li><li>The US swaps curve was in the process of revising Fed rate cut expectations even before the election amid resilient US growth and signs that the FOMC was less likely to follow up September’s rate 1/2-point rate cut with another bold move. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The CAD has weakened to its lowest since 2020 in the wake of the US presidential election.Broad strength in the USD followed the result as markets anticipated pro-growth and potentially inflationary policy moves by the incoming Trump administration.The US swaps curve was in the process of revising Fed rate cut expectations even before the election amid resilient US growth and signs that the FOMC was less likely to follow up September’s rate 1/2-point rate cut with another bold move. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Liable to Drop Further in Coming Weeks

<ul><li>The CAD is down modestly against the USD on the week, just about holding above 2-year range lows.</li><li>It is trading a little better than its commodity peers on the week but underperforming slightly versus the EUR, GBP and JPY.</li><li>The shift in CAD-negative variables appears to have stabilized, with the CAD fair value estimate holding around 1.3930 since mid-week. Measured correlations are very weak. Things are not getting worse but they are not getting obviously better for the CAD. Reaching to clutch a couple of CADpositive straws, the TRIX oscillator is rolling over more clearly. It has done a decent job of catching broader peaks and troughs in USDCAD recently. And, looking back over the past few years, the USD has tended to peak around this time of the year and these sorts of levels (October 2022 ~ 1.3977 and November 2023 ~ 1.39).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The CAD is down modestly against the USD on the week, just about holding above 2-year range lows.It is trading a little better than its commodity peers on the week but underperforming slightly versus the EUR, GBP and JPY.The shift in CAD-negative variables appears to have stabilized, with the CAD fair value estimate holding around 1.3930 since mid-week. Measured correlations are very weak. Things are not getting worse but they are not getting obviously better for the CAD. Reaching to clutch a couple of CADpositive straws, the TRIX oscillator is rolling over more clearly. It has done a decent job of catching broader peaks and troughs in USDCAD recently. And, looking back over the past few years, the USD has tended to peak around this time of the year and these sorts of levels (October 2022 ~ 1.3977 and November 2023 ~ 1.39).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly Outlook - Soft CAD Steadying Near Recent Lows

<ul><li>Market sentiment continues to shift in favour of the USD, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC for the week through last Tuesday.</li><li>Non-Commercial (speculative) traders took a small net USD short position to a sizeable net USD long position overall, via a USD10bn swing in aggregate positioning in the major currencies we monitor for this report.</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged (hedge fund) traders cutting their USD4bn net USD short from last week to near flat while Real Money (institutional) halved their net USD short over the week to a little less than USD9bn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Market sentiment continues to shift in favour of the USD, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC for the week through last Tuesday.Non-Commercial (speculative) traders took a small net USD short position to a sizeable net USD long position overall, via a USD10bn swing in aggregate positioning in the major currencies we monitor for this report.Additional data shows Leveraged (hedge fund) traders cutting their USD4bn net USD short from last week to near flat while Real Money (institutional) halved their net USD short over the week to a little less than USD9bn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative Sentiment Turns USD Bullish

<ul><li>The US dollar (USD) has underperformed in the third quarter, reflecting a constellation of factors that have shaken up currency trading and injected renewed volatility into markets.</li><li>We had expected the USD to ease somewhat in H2 as cyclical factors turn less supportive and while USD losses have moderated somewhat in recent trading, the net impact is still a somewhat weaker USD than we had anticipated at this stage.</li><li>USD weakness can be largely explained by the following. Firstly, US yields eased in July and fell sharply in August following the release of a weaker-than-expected US July employment report. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The US dollar (USD) has underperformed in the third quarter, reflecting a constellation of factors that have shaken up currency trading and injected renewed volatility into markets.We had expected the USD to ease somewhat in H2 as cyclical factors turn less supportive and while USD losses have moderated somewhat in recent trading, the net impact is still a somewhat weaker USD than we had anticipated at this stage.USD weakness can be largely explained by the following. Firstly, US yields eased in July and fell sharply in August following the release of a weaker-than-expected US July employment report. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.