HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

ANTA Sports Products Limited designs, develops, manufactures, and markets sportswear, including sports footwear and apparel for professionals and the general public.

<ul>
<li>1Q25 sales for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> continue the trend in 4Q24, with ANTA and FILA brands recording a healthy high-single-digit YoY increase.</li>
<li>With the US-China trade war, the negative impact on consumer appetite is uncertain. It is difficult to project the 2Q-4Q25 revenue and margin outlook. </li>
<li>Its associate, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amer-sports-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21751:1" rel="noopener">Amer Sports (AS US)</a>, has 36% of revenue from the Americas, while the Jack Wolfskin acquisition has limited contribution. Its 50% premium to sector caps upside.  </li>
</ul>


1Q25 sales for Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) continue the trend in 4Q24, with ANTA and FILA brands recording a healthy high-single-digit YoY increase.
With the US-China trade war, the negative impact on consumer appetite is uncertain. It is difficult to project the 2Q-4Q25 revenue and margin outlook. 
Its associate, Amer Sports (AS US), has 36% of revenue from the Americas, while the Jack Wolfskin acquisition has limited contribution. Its 50% premium to sector caps upside.  


Anta Sports (2020 HK): 1Q25 Stable, yet the Margin Remains Our Concern

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" have led to over 10% fall in the Hong Kong market, but there are some names that only came down by 3.2% on average.</li>
<li>Their characteristics are: 1.) domestically focused, 2.) net cash position, 3.) secure demand, 4.) consumption downgrade beneficiary, and 5.) good dividends.</li>
<li>These stocks are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinhua-winshare-publishing-media-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15072:1" rel="noopener">Xinhua Winshare (811 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-east-education-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27843:1" rel="noopener">China East Education (667 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" have led to over 10% fall in the Hong Kong market, but there are some names that only came down by 3.2% on average.
Their characteristics are: 1.) domestically focused, 2.) net cash position, 3.) secure demand, 4.) consumption downgrade beneficiary, and 5.) good dividends.
These stocks are Xinhua Winshare (811 HK), Lonking Holdings (3339 HK), Kunlun Energy (135 HK), Mixue Group (2097 HK), and China East Education (667 HK). 


China & HK Strategy: Which Stocks Will Thrive?

CK Infrastructure Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

CK Infrastructure Holdings Limited (CKI) operates as a real assets investment company. The Company invests in energy, transportation, water, and electricity generation sectors. CKI serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a>'s share price should pick up as its portfolio of non-US infrastructure assets will become increasingly attractive.</li>
<li>Its assets will benefit from re-pricing as global inflation rates trend higher. Meanwhile, it will gain from the translation of foreign earnings back to HK$.</li>
<li>The secured 5.7% and 6.2% dividend yield for FY25F and FY26F makes CKI appealing, especially given a track record of 28 consecutive years of dividend hike.</li>
</ul>



CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)'s share price should pick up as its portfolio of non-US infrastructure assets will become increasingly attractive.
Its assets will benefit from re-pricing as global inflation rates trend higher. Meanwhile, it will gain from the translation of foreign earnings back to HK$.
The secured 5.7% and 6.2% dividend yield for FY25F and FY26F makes CKI appealing, especially given a track record of 28 consecutive years of dividend hike.


<ul>
<li>Our list of HK-listed industrial companies indicated that the US generated an average of 22.9% of sales. With diversified production bases, higher tariffs may only affect ~10% of revenue.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chervon-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35309:1" rel="noopener">Chervon Holdings (2285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)</a> are more exposed given their significant US sales yet most production is still in China. </li>
<li>While the US generated over 50% of the revenue of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Industries (669 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexteer-automotive-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15483:1" rel="noopener">Nexteer Automotive (1316 HK)</a>, they are less exposed given their worldwide manufacturing presence. </li>
</ul>


Our list of HK-listed industrial companies indicated that the US generated an average of 22.9% of sales. With diversified production bases, higher tariffs may only affect ~10% of revenue.

Vesync (2148 HK), Chervon Holdings (2285 HK), and AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) are more exposed given their significant US sales yet most production is still in China. 
While the US generated over 50% of the revenue of Techtronic Industries (669 HK) and Nexteer Automotive (1316 HK), they are less exposed given their worldwide manufacturing presence. 


China & HK Strategy: Stocks Exposed to the US and Higher Tariffs

ENN Energy Holdings Ltd. distributes natural gas in China.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, invests in, operates, and manages gas pipelines, and sells and distributes piped and bottled gas in China.

<ul>
<li>We calculated that after the privatisation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a>, the EPS of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-natural-gas-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16456:1" rel="noopener">ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH)</a> will be Rmb1.94 for FY25F and Rmb2.11 for FY26F.</li>
<li>By using ENN Energy's undisturbed PER (with and without a 10% discount) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a>'s ex-cash PER, ENN-NG H-share is worth 6.8-7.9x for FY25F and 6.3-7.2x for FY26F.</li>
<li>ENN-NG H-share is hence valued at HK$14.11-16.37, implying that ENN Energy's value under the privatisation proposal is HK$66.02-72.67, which is lower than Somerly's HK$80 estimate.</li>
</ul>


We calculated that after the privatisation of ENN Energy (2688 HK), the EPS of ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH) will be Rmb1.94 for FY25F and Rmb2.11 for FY26F.
By using ENN Energy's undisturbed PER (with and without a 10% discount) and Kunlun Energy (135 HK)'s ex-cash PER, ENN-NG H-share is worth 6.8-7.9x for FY25F and 6.3-7.2x for FY26F.
ENN-NG H-share is hence valued at HK$14.11-16.37, implying that ENN Energy's value under the privatisation proposal is HK$66.02-72.67, which is lower than Somerly's HK$80 estimate.


ENN Energy (2688 HK): Valuing ENN Natural Gas H-Share

Osbert Tang is an equity analyst with over 20 years of experience with focuses on China transport, infrastructure, industrials and utilities sectors. He has been based in Shanghai since 2003, accumulated nearly 20 years of on-ground knowledge on the Chinese economy and financial markets, and has a wealth of contacts with China corporates and government entities. 

Osbert has received votes from top-tier institutional investors and has been a highly-ranked transport and infrastructure analyst in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investors and Greenwich surveys. In addition to his extensive experience with international investment banks including RBS, ABN AMRO (both served as Shanghai Chief Representative), Paribas Asia Equity, Maybank Kim Eng and DBS Securities, he has been a senior analyst with Moody’s Investors Service with focus on ratings of China infrastructure and related LGFV issuers. He has also worked in the area of strategic development at Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited. 

Osbert holds a BBA from the Chinese University of Hong Kong, an MBA from the University of Texas at Austin and a MSSc in Applied Psychology from the City University of Hong Kong. He was accredited with the CFA charter in 1997, and is a member of both British Psychological Society and Hong Kong Psychological Society.