Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Entree Resources Ltd. operates as a mining company. The Company develops and discovers gold and copper resources. Entree Resources is currently conducting exploration on its mineral concessions in Mongolia.

<ul>
<li>The acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/filo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42545:1" rel="noopener">Filo (FIL CN)</a> by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd-832e22a7-7a1d-49cf-b992-c6347084cbf8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21840:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP LN) could be the start of a much larger M&amp;A wave.</a>
</li>
<li>Many juniors trade at 0.1x to 0.2x NAV while transactions typically happen at 0.8x-1x NAV. Filo was acquired at 0.81x NAV so right within this range.</li>
<li>We continue to like a basket of junior copper mines to get exposure to M&amp;A copper dynamics</li>
</ul>


The acquisition of Filo (FIL CN) by Lundin Mining (LUN CN) and BHP Group Ltd (BHP LN) could be the start of a much larger M&amp;A wave.

Many juniors trade at 0.1x to 0.2x NAV while transactions typically happen at 0.8x-1x NAV. Filo was acquired at 0.81x NAV so right within this range.
We continue to like a basket of junior copper mines to get exposure to M&amp;A copper dynamics


Rio Tinto: Open to Major Copper M&A; Entree Resources Logical Target

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entree-resources-ltd-3aeeb68c-80d0-4ada-822e-898883fbb28e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26727:1" rel="noopener">Entree Resources (ETG CN)</a> has been in an arbitration proceeding against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22114:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)</a> since April 2024.</li>
<li>After initial hearings earlier in 1H24 we expect final arguments next week. The arbitration committee verdict should come by late 3Q24.</li>
<li>At stake is the relationship and ownership arrangement between ETG and RIO's in Oyu Tolgoi, one of the world's largest copper mines. Just concluded Mongolian elections clear the last hurdle.</li>
</ul>



Entree Resources (ETG CN) has been in an arbitration proceeding against Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN) since April 2024.
After initial hearings earlier in 1H24 we expect final arguments next week. The arbitration committee verdict should come by late 3Q24.
At stake is the relationship and ownership arrangement between ETG and RIO's in Oyu Tolgoi, one of the world's largest copper mines. Just concluded Mongolian elections clear the last hurdle.


Mongolia Elections Behind Us and Rio Versus Entree Arbitration Ruling Expected by Late 3Q24

AEM Holdings Limited designs and manufactures semiconductor manufacturing equipment and related tooling parts and precision machining of components for semiconductor industry.  The Company also manufactures and distributes electronics, engineering, chemical and related products. AEM provides engineering services.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> announced a new CEO as of 30th of May 2024. The new CEO officially starts 1st of July 2024.</li>
<li>Amy Leong will take over from Chandran Nair as she leaves her Chief Commercial Officer role at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/formfactor-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20309:1" rel="noopener">Formfactor Inc (FORM US)</a>. </li>
<li>Given the weak business results and inventory management issues it should be expected that Mrs Leong would want to clean the proverbial house before she starts in her new role.</li>
</ul>



AEM (AEM SP) announced a new CEO as of 30th of May 2024. The new CEO officially starts 1st of July 2024.
Amy Leong will take over from Chandran Nair as she leaves her Chief Commercial Officer role at Formfactor Inc (FORM US). 
Given the weak business results and inventory management issues it should be expected that Mrs Leong would want to clean the proverbial house before she starts in her new role.


AEM Holdings: New CEO = One Final Kitchen Sink in 2Q24?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Copper is trading above 5.05 USD/lbs and has rallied over 29% YTD. Jeff Currie was quoted as saying "<strong>Copper is the New Oil"</strong>
</li>
<li>Sprott launches physical Copper Trust, copying the uranium playbook. Removing physical copper from the market.</li>
<li>Uranium in 2023 and Cacao in 1H24 show what commodity prices can do if investors panic. Is copper making a parabolic move next?</li>
</ul>


Copper is trading above 5.05 USD/lbs and has rallied over 29% YTD. Jeff Currie was quoted as saying "Copper is the New Oil"

Sprott launches physical Copper Trust, copying the uranium playbook. Removing physical copper from the market.
Uranium in 2023 and Cacao in 1H24 show what commodity prices can do if investors panic. Is copper making a parabolic move next?


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> published dismal 1Q24 results and kept its modest guidance for 1H24.</li>
<li>AEM has announced new customer wins going into FY25 which should improve results materially next year. The sell-side has downgraded estimates aggressively making room for upside surprises next year.</li>
<li>AEM has seen an implosion in investor confidence because of the inventory issues, and slow orders from its key customer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>. Long-term investors should accumulate here. </li>
</ul>



AEM (AEM SP) published dismal 1Q24 results and kept its modest guidance for 1H24.
AEM has announced new customer wins going into FY25 which should improve results materially next year. The sell-side has downgraded estimates aggressively making room for upside surprises next year.
AEM has seen an implosion in investor confidence because of the inventory issues, and slow orders from its key customer Intel Corp (INTC US). Long-term investors should accumulate here. 


AEM Holdings: More Short-Term Pain; Highly Attractive Valuation for Long-Term Investors

Was on the buyside for 15 years, most recently at a medium-sized boutique asset management firm. I grew up in Europe, went to university in the US and have been living in Singapore for the last 7 years which has given me a broad scope on the world and investing in general.

Consider myself a generalist investor with a preference for small and mid-cap companies and special situations. However, a large cap that has gone temporarily out of favor might also pique my interest. 

My style of investing could be categorized as more of value investor, rather than growth at any cost. Learning from Charlie Munger on the importance of quality of a company has been of tremendous value over the years.I like businesses with real earnings, cash flows, dividends, book value and insider ownership.