Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients worldwide.

<ul>
<li>An additional 24 Equipment are added to the restriction list (negative to AMAT, KLA, LAM). No explicit restrictions on ASML or Tokyo Electron, but that’s done indirectly.</li>
<li>HBM Memory sales to China restricted (directly negative to Samsung), but restriction of DRAM Manufacturing Equipment sales is long-term positive to Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix. </li>
<li>140 Chinese firms added to the Entity List, including all China’s Semi Production Equipment makers (Naura, AMEC, Piotech, SiCarrier). </li>
</ul>


An additional 24 Equipment are added to the restriction list (negative to AMAT, KLA, LAM). No explicit restrictions on ASML or Tokyo Electron, but that’s done indirectly.
HBM Memory sales to China restricted (directly negative to Samsung), but restriction of DRAM Manufacturing Equipment sales is long-term positive to Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix. 
140 Chinese firms added to the Entity List, including all China’s Semi Production Equipment makers (Naura, AMEC, Piotech, SiCarrier). 


US Restriction on Semi Export to China Negative for All Equipment Makers, Naura, AMEC, ASML, TEL

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

<ul>
<li>Samsung Semiconductor re-org, new reporting lines, top management promotions and demotions, but the same people. That's going to solve problems? Qualcomm gives up on buying Intel - good idea. </li>
<li>Xiaomi to launch its smartphone chip, but what for? Intel launching a PC GPU again . Apple delays or abandons 2nm for M5 chip (too expensive). TSMC increasing CoWoS again. </li>
<li>China - US worsening relations, side effect is over buying, over stocking of semiconductors? is there a bunch of inventories in China that we can't see?  </li>
</ul>


Samsung Semiconductor re-org, new reporting lines, top management promotions and demotions, but the same people. That's going to solve problems? Qualcomm gives up on buying Intel - good idea. 
Xiaomi to launch its smartphone chip, but what for? Intel launching a PC GPU again . Apple delays or abandons 2nm for M5 chip (too expensive). TSMC increasing CoWoS again. 
China - US worsening relations, side effect is over buying, over stocking of semiconductors? is there a bunch of inventories in China that we can't see?  


Tech News This Week: Samsung Re-Org, QCOM Gives up on Intel, TSMC Increase CoWoS, Apple Delays 2nm

Kioxia Holdings Corporation manufactures semiconductor memory products. The Company develops, produces, and sells flash memory cards, solid state drives, secure digital memory cards, and other products. Kioxia Holdings also operates group management strategy formulation and management.

<ul>
<li>Kioxia has been under-investing in Capex (27% of revenue versus competitors 37%) and R&amp;D (5% versus 11%) because Free Cash Flow is low, too low to pay back debt. </li>
<li>The Memory cycle peaked in June-24 and NAND prices have been declining since. Memory stocks (Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix) peaked in June. </li>
<li>The valuations multiples that reconcile with a US$4.9bn market value are half or one-third that of competitors. A huge discount is applied, reflecting the financial and technological weakness of Kioxia. </li>
</ul>


Kioxia has been under-investing in Capex (27% of revenue versus competitors 37%) and R&amp;D (5% versus 11%) because Free Cash Flow is low, too low to pay back debt. 
The Memory cycle peaked in June-24 and NAND prices have been declining since. Memory stocks (Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix) peaked in June. 
The valuations multiples that reconcile with a US$4.9bn market value are half or one-third that of competitors. A huge discount is applied, reflecting the financial and technological weakness of Kioxia. 


Kioxia Part 2: Financials (Under-Investments, Razor-Thin FCF), Valuations (Memory Cycle Has Peaked)

<ul>
<li>Tier-2 commodity Memory is a lousy business, which requires high Capex and R&amp;D, generates very low Free Cash Flows. DRAM is more sustainable than NAND as peak margins are higher. </li>
<li>Kioxia only makes NAND, has a high market share (16%) but is a Tier-2 supplier with a roadmap lagging SK Hynix by ~2 years, and a high exposure to Consumer. </li>
<li>The Memory cycle has recovered, probably close to peak earnings. That’s why stocks have been declining (Micron, Hynix).  Part 2 will cover financials (there's a bad surprise) and valuations. </li>
</ul>


Tier-2 commodity Memory is a lousy business, which requires high Capex and R&amp;D, generates very low Free Cash Flows. DRAM is more sustainable than NAND as peak margins are higher. 
Kioxia only makes NAND, has a high market share (16%) but is a Tier-2 supplier with a roadmap lagging SK Hynix by ~2 years, and a high exposure to Consumer. 
The Memory cycle has recovered, probably close to peak earnings. That’s why stocks have been declining (Micron, Hynix).  Part 2 will cover financials (there's a bad surprise) and valuations. 


What Is Kioxia? And Should You Bother? Part 1: Why NAND Is so Hard (And Not Attractive)

<ul>
<li>Smartphone demand remains slow, that contributes to weak outlook for commodity DRAM.  Nvidia / Mediatek and Qualcomm AI PC chips should be launched mid-2025. </li>
<li>Nvidia allocation of TSMC CoWoS remains at 60% in 2025, capacity doubles, Data Center GPU revenue will double? TSMC 2nm-16A roadmap on track.  </li>
<li>SK Hynix is now ahead of Samsung in HBM, DDR5, 3D NAND and SSD. Meanwhile, Samsung is buying back shares. </li>
</ul>


Smartphone demand remains slow, that contributes to weak outlook for commodity DRAM.  Nvidia / Mediatek and Qualcomm AI PC chips should be launched mid-2025. 
Nvidia allocation of TSMC CoWoS remains at 60% in 2025, capacity doubles, Data Center GPU revenue will double? TSMC 2nm-16A roadmap on track.  
SK Hynix is now ahead of Samsung in HBM, DDR5, 3D NAND and SSD. Meanwhile, Samsung is buying back shares. 


Tech News This Week: Smartphone, Mediatek, Nvidia, Qualcomm, TSMC, Super Micro, SK Hynix, Samsung

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Technology sector in Asia mostly, and Global Tech in a couple of jobs. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA and Macquarie. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered Asian semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the global Semi supply chain. In addition to stock coverage, he also publishes research on sectors as that often shows clearer trends and pinpoints the inflection points in a sharper way. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.