Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd. retails automobiles.  The Company imports and retails primarily luxury and mid- to high-end automobile brands.

<ul>
<li>Zhongsheng share price surged by 26% on Friday as investors warms up to China, and accumulate beaten down consumer stocks. Zhongsheng was the top performing HSI stock.  </li>
<li>Businesswise, nothing has changed and consensus earnings for Zhongsheng remain largely unchanged. It is all about positive re-rating of the Chinese markets. </li>
<li>Our fair value is raised to HKD16-20.5, based on historical mean PE of 9.4x and ceiling of 12x. Zhongsheng is still cheap and have further upside potential in our view. </li>
</ul>


Zhongsheng share price surged by 26% on Friday as investors warms up to China, and accumulate beaten down consumer stocks. Zhongsheng was the top performing HSI stock.  
Businesswise, nothing has changed and consensus earnings for Zhongsheng remain largely unchanged. It is all about positive re-rating of the Chinese markets. 
Our fair value is raised to HKD16-20.5, based on historical mean PE of 9.4x and ceiling of 12x. Zhongsheng is still cheap and have further upside potential in our view. 


Zhongsheng Group Holdings (881 HK, BUY, TP:HKD16.0-20.5): Long Overdue PoP, Still More Valuation Gap

TUHU Car Inc. offers automotive services. The Company develops leading integrated online and offline platform which provides automotive maintenance, repair, detailing, and more. TUHU Car provides its services throughout Hong Kong.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tuhu-car-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36012:1" rel="noopener">Tuhu Car (9690 HK)</a> is poised to capture the lion share of China's automotive aftersales service industry that is forecasted to grow at 7.3% CAGR from 2023:30. </li>
<li>Tuhu is on an inflection of high earnings growth (+30% CAGR) as it has reached scalability, cost efficiency, and its younger shops are maturing profitably.    </li>
<li>Our fair value of HKD24 implies 25x FY25 PE - average for US peers. A bargain with 3-year CAGR of 30%, net cash, and churns high free cash flow.</li>
</ul>



Tuhu Car (9690 HK) is poised to capture the lion share of China's automotive aftersales service industry that is forecasted to grow at 7.3% CAGR from 2023:30. 
Tuhu is on an inflection of high earnings growth (+30% CAGR) as it has reached scalability, cost efficiency, and its younger shops are maturing profitably.    
Our fair value of HKD24 implies 25x FY25 PE - average for US peers. A bargain with 3-year CAGR of 30%, net cash, and churns high free cash flow.


Tuhu Car (9690 HK | BUY | TP:HKD24): Poised to Capture China's Auto Aftersales Service Market

Travelsky Technology Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

Travelsky Technology Limited provides information technology solutions for China's air travel and tourism industries.  The Company provides electronic travel distribution systems, or ETD, in China, develops airport passenger processing and air cargo systems, owns and operates real-time network for China's civil aviation industry, and operates Internet-based travel platform.

<ul>
<li>1H24 results was above expectation and showing good signs of cost control and topline recovery. We expect the momentum to continue. </li>
<li>Air traffic in China continues to grow strongly, with domestic travel leading the way. International traffic is picking up momentum, but still 23% gap to pre-Covid's numbers. </li>
<li>Revised fair value of HKD11.10 (+18% UPSIDE) is based on 2025 PE 12.5x (1SD below mean). </li>
</ul>


1H24 results was above expectation and showing good signs of cost control and topline recovery. We expect the momentum to continue. 
Air traffic in China continues to grow strongly, with domestic travel leading the way. International traffic is picking up momentum, but still 23% gap to pre-Covid's numbers. 
Revised fair value of HKD11.10 (+18% UPSIDE) is based on 2025 PE 12.5x (1SD below mean). 


Travelsky (696 HK | HOLD | TP:HKD11.0): Making Good Progress

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited engages in sales of duty free goods and tax goods. The Company sells tobacco, wine and spirits, perfume, cosmetics, fashion and accessories, watches, jewelry, food, luggage products,and other products. China Tourism Group Duty Free also engages in investment and development of tourism destination commercial complexes.

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)</a> (CTG) share price on downtrend due to negative sentiment, increased competition, and Chinese being more frugal in their consumption  </li>
<li>2024 and 2025 consensus earnings declined by -2%/-17%, but CTG will deliver +16% YoY earnings growth in 2025. CTG remains a growths stock, a fact we think many investors forget!  </li>
<li>We revise our target price to CNY71.3 pegged to 18.5x FY25 PE (1.5 standard deviation below mean). We think the share price decline is overdone and ignores its strong fundamentals.  </li>
</ul>



China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) (CTG) share price on downtrend due to negative sentiment, increased competition, and Chinese being more frugal in their consumption  
2024 and 2025 consensus earnings declined by -2%/-17%, but CTG will deliver +16% YoY earnings growth in 2025. CTG remains a growths stock, a fact we think many investors forget!  
We revise our target price to CNY71.3 pegged to 18.5x FY25 PE (1.5 standard deviation below mean). We think the share price decline is overdone and ignores its strong fundamentals.  


China Tourism Group (601888 CH | BUY | CNY): When Falling Knife Turns into Value Investing

<ul>
<li>Historical valuation affirms that Zhongzheng is the cheapest it has been in the past 10 years </li>
<li>Chart analysis is to compliment our recent report <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zhongsheng-group-holdings-881-hk-buy-tp-hkd12-5-a-contrarian-play" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:157671" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group Holdings (881 HK, BUY, TP:HKD12.5): A Contrarian Play</a> published yesterday</li>
<li>Our TP of HKD12.5 is based on FY25 PE of 5x. This implies an <strong>UPSIDE POTENTIAL</strong> of<strong> 33%</strong>. It also delivers a dividend yield of ~9% at current prices. </li>
</ul>


Historical valuation affirms that Zhongzheng is the cheapest it has been in the past 10 years 
Chart analysis is to compliment our recent report Zhongsheng Group Holdings (881 HK, BUY, TP:HKD12.5): A Contrarian Play published yesterday
Our TP of HKD12.5 is based on FY25 PE of 5x. This implies an UPSIDE POTENTIAL of 33%. It also delivers a dividend yield of ~9% at current prices. 


Zhongsheng Group Holdings (881 HK, BUY, TP:HKD12.5): Chart Analysis Affirms Zhongsheng Is Too Cheap

Capital market veteran with 22 years experience with stints as an analyst (sell-side & buyside), investor relations and fund manager. 

My key expertise in the aviation sector. My definition of "aviation" includes airlines, travel tours, airports, airport retail & services, OEMs, online travel agents, aircraft lessors, air cargo/logistics, etc.   

I have an active watchlist consisting 190 companies across 41 countries. The aviation sector is highly cyclical and I am constantly evaluating signals to uncover attractive trade opportunities.