Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives, MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives

MBI is the abbreviation for “Mostly Borrowed Ideas”. Why “Mostly Borrowed Ideas?” As a generalist, I do not have a background in any particular sector. I enjoy navigating across industries, businesses, and countries to learn, understand, and connect the dots. In any case, most ideas and innovations are incremental in nature. Very few of us are smart enough to come up with truly original or groundbreaking ideas. I am Abdullah Al-Rezwan. I was born and brought up in Bangladesh. I went to University of Dhaka for my undergrad and majored in Finance. After working three and half years in Equity Research (Sell-side) covering Financial Sector in Bangladesh, I left Bangladesh to pursue my MBA in the US. I graduated within top 10% of the class from Cornell University's two-year MBA program and worked on the buy-side following my graduation. During my time at Cornell, I won two stock pitch competitions and also became finalists in four other competitions. I thoroughly enjoyed my stint as a generalist in the US large cap team at Madison Investments and covered a wide range of companies from UnitedHealth to Amazon and Boeing before US immigration reality paused my career in investment management. As my work authorization expired, I moved to Canada in January, 2021. Then in early 2022, I was able to return to the US.

Equity Bottom-Up

Universal Music Group NV / Equity Bottom-Up

Universal Music Group N.V. operates as an entertainment company. The Company produces and distributes music contents. Universal Music Group serves customers worldwide.

<ul><li>While music clearly leaves an indelible effect on most of our lives, it has not been easy for capitalism to capture the value created by music.</li><li>In 1999, global recorded music industry generated $22.2 Billion revenue; it took another two decades for the industry to surpass that number!</li><li>Even though revenue in nominal dollars finally exceeded the former peak revenue in 1999 by the end of 2021, on an inflation-adjusted per capita basis consumers today spend almost half of what they used to spend on recorded music in 1999.</li></ul>

While music clearly leaves an indelible effect on most of our lives, it has not been easy for capitalism to capture the value created by music.In 1999, global recorded music industry generated $22.2 Billion revenue; it took another two decades for the industry to surpass that number!Even though revenue in nominal dollars finally exceeded the former peak revenue in 1999 by the end of 2021, on an inflation-adjusted per capita basis consumers today spend almost half of what they used to spend on recorded music in 1999.

Dollar General Corporation operates a chain of discount retail stores located primarily in the southern, southwestern, midwestern, and eastern United States. The Company offer a broad selection of merchandise, including consumable products such as food, paper and cleaning products, health, beauty, pet supplies, and non-consumables such as seasonal merchandise.

<ul><li>After Dollar General’s (DG) disastrous earnings couple of weeks ago, I was quite concerned about their prospects in the near-term.</li><li>However, a week later after digesting through Dollar Tree (DLTR) as well as DG management’s explanation in the Goldman Sachs Retailing Conference, I have updated some of my thoughts about DG…in the positive direction.</li><li>Nonetheless, I have decided to abide by my decision not to inject more capital to DG, but to increase my notional exposure to DG via long-dated call options. </li></ul>

After Dollar General’s (DG) disastrous earnings couple of weeks ago, I was quite concerned about their prospects in the near-term.However, a week later after digesting through Dollar Tree (DLTR) as well as DG management’s explanation in the Goldman Sachs Retailing Conference, I have updated some of my thoughts about DG…in the positive direction.Nonetheless, I have decided to abide by my decision not to inject more capital to DG, but to increase my notional exposure to DG via long-dated call options. 

lululemon athletica Inc. designs and retails athletic clothing.  The Company produces fitness pants, shorts, tops and jackets for yoga, dance, running, and general fitness. lululemon serves customers throughout the world.

<ul><li>It is far from common for a stock to be up 4% after missing the revenue guide for the quarter and slashing the full-year revenue guide for the year.</li><li>That’s exactly what happened with Lululemon today which should tell you the kind of sentiment going into the earnings!</li><li>The crux of the bear thesis on Lulu usually circles around their US business. </li></ul>

It is far from common for a stock to be up 4% after missing the revenue guide for the quarter and slashing the full-year revenue guide for the year.That’s exactly what happened with Lululemon today which should tell you the kind of sentiment going into the earnings!The crux of the bear thesis on Lulu usually circles around their US business. 

<ul><li>I first wrote my Deep Dive on Dollar General back in August 2023.</li><li>While I wasn't initially excited about owning a piece of the company despite the stock being down 40% from peak then, I changed my mind when the stock went down another ~25% following 2Q'23 earnings.</li><li>After today's dismal earnings, the stock went down almost another 30% since 2Q'23 earnings. </li></ul>

I first wrote my Deep Dive on Dollar General back in August 2023.While I wasn't initially excited about owning a piece of the company despite the stock being down 40% from peak then, I changed my mind when the stock went down another ~25% following 2Q'23 earnings.After today's dismal earnings, the stock went down almost another 30% since 2Q'23 earnings. 

Alphabet, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides web-based search, advertisements, maps, software applications, mobile operating systems, consumer content, enterprise solutions, commerce, and hardware products.

<ul><li>Yesterday’s Google’s earnings may have been bit of “meh” at first glance, but there were nuggets in the call that may have important implications for the broader market.</li><li>Network segment continues to struggle, but the rest of the businesses continue to grow at healthy double digit rate.</li><li>Search revenue growth surpassed YouTube ads revenue growth last quarter. For the first time, Cloud posted &gt;$10 Bn quarter while maintaining high 20s growth YoY.</li></ul>

Yesterday’s Google’s earnings may have been bit of “meh” at first glance, but there were nuggets in the call that may have important implications for the broader market.Network segment continues to struggle, but the rest of the businesses continue to grow at healthy double digit rate.Search revenue growth surpassed YouTube ads revenue growth last quarter. For the first time, Cloud posted &gt;$10 Bn quarter while maintaining high 20s growth YoY.

MBI is the abbreviation for “Mostly Borrowed Ideas”. 

Why “Mostly Borrowed Ideas?”

As a generalist, I do not have a background in any particular sector. I enjoy navigating across industries, businesses, and countries to learn, understand, and connect the dots. In any case, most ideas and innovations are incremental in nature. Very few of us are smart enough to come up with truly original or groundbreaking ideas.

I am Abdullah Al-Rezwan. I was born and brought up in Bangladesh. I went to University of Dhaka for my undergrad and majored in Finance. After working three and half years in Equity Research (Sell-side) covering Financial Sector in Bangladesh, I left Bangladesh to pursue my MBA in the US. I graduated within top 10% of the class from Cornell University's two-year MBA program and worked on the buy-side following my graduation. During my time at Cornell, I won two stock pitch competitions and also became finalists in four other competitions. I thoroughly enjoyed my stint as a generalist in the US large cap team at Madison Investments and covered a wide range of companies from UnitedHealth to Amazon and Boeing before US immigration reality paused my career in investment management. As my work authorization expired, I moved to Canada in January, 2021. Then in early 2022, I was able to return to the US.