Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Founder

Market Thinker

Mark Tinker has over 35 years experience as an investor, market strategist and economist. Having spent more than 20 years as a sell side strategist and being top rated on numerous occasions and surveys he moved to investment management in 2006 to run global equity portfolios in London and subsequently moved to Hong Kong in 2013 to help establish an Investment Management business for a top 20 international asset manager. He first started writing investment weeklies for his employers in 1989, developing a style characterised under the title Market Thinking and has been a regular commentator and presenter on CNBC, Bloomberg and other business channels, where his approach of rationalising market behaviour rather than making short term predictions on high frequency market data provides a welcome balance to his client audience.

Making Sense of the Narrative

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>This was not about Left versus Right, it was about a generational shift, from the Boomers to Gen X.</li><li>This will then also move the children of the Boomers - the Millennials - down in favour of the next generation, the Zoomers of Gen Z.</li><li>The economy and the markets will now shift in line with their traits and behaviours.</li></ul>

This was not about Left versus Right, it was about a generational shift, from the Boomers to Gen X.This will then also move the children of the Boomers - the Millennials - down in favour of the next generation, the Zoomers of Gen Z.The economy and the markets will now shift in line with their traits and behaviours.

<ul><li>In our October monthly we noted that we didn’t trust the spike in the Chinese stock markets and that, while we believed that there may now be a long term base forming, we saw this as a potential dip to be bought rather than a rally to be chased.</li><li>So with a near perfect 50% Fibonacci retracement of the rally, should we be buying?</li><li>Well - and with the all important caveat that this is not to be considered investment advice, please speak to a financial advisor - the answer is, to quote Oasis, Definitely Maybe.</li></ul>

In our October monthly we noted that we didn’t trust the spike in the Chinese stock markets and that, while we believed that there may now be a long term base forming, we saw this as a potential dip to be bought rather than a rally to be chased.So with a near perfect 50% Fibonacci retracement of the rally, should we be buying?Well - and with the all important caveat that this is not to be considered investment advice, please speak to a financial advisor - the answer is, to quote Oasis, Definitely Maybe.

Building a Capital Market with Chinese Characteristics

<ul><li>Globalisation is unravelling rapidly The timing of the US tariff announcement was clearly political and aimed at voters and producers rather than consumers.</li><li>However, it marks an important shift in unravelling the world of Globalisation, as well as threatening EU unity and exposing the inherent contradictions in believing net zero is a job creating policy.</li><li>The timing of the announcement last week that the US would impose tariffs of 100% on Chinese exports of EVs, as well as varying % tariffs on steel, batteries, solar cells, and critical minerals was obviously political, as many of the key swing states in the upcoming US Election are facing intense competition from China and politicians need to promise jobs in order to get elected.</li></ul>

Globalisation is unravelling rapidly The timing of the US tariff announcement was clearly political and aimed at voters and producers rather than consumers.However, it marks an important shift in unravelling the world of Globalisation, as well as threatening EU unity and exposing the inherent contradictions in believing net zero is a job creating policy.The timing of the announcement last week that the US would impose tariffs of 100% on Chinese exports of EVs, as well as varying % tariffs on steel, batteries, solar cells, and critical minerals was obviously political, as many of the key swing states in the upcoming US Election are facing intense competition from China and politicians need to promise jobs in order to get elected.

<ul><li>Every year, for as long as we can remember, we have written a weekly or a monthly note with some variation of the ‘Sell in May’ trope, so we see no reason to break the habit this year.</li><li>The chart (courtesy of Nick Glydon and team at Redburn Atlantic) shows the steady uptrend in searches for the expression every April over the last 14 years and while obviously there is a ‘usage factor’, it is certainly on a lot of traders’ minds at the moment.</li><li>The historic rationale for the expression comes from the leveraged trading end of the spectrum and tended to reflect the fall in speculative activity in the commodities markets over the summer months and while the speculators have moved heavily into other markets since those days, the seasonal drop off in activity as the head traders head to the beach remains a factor - the juniors tend to flatten the books and keep things ticking over.</li></ul>

Every year, for as long as we can remember, we have written a weekly or a monthly note with some variation of the ‘Sell in May’ trope, so we see no reason to break the habit this year.The chart (courtesy of Nick Glydon and team at Redburn Atlantic) shows the steady uptrend in searches for the expression every April over the last 14 years and while obviously there is a ‘usage factor’, it is certainly on a lot of traders’ minds at the moment.The historic rationale for the expression comes from the leveraged trading end of the spectrum and tended to reflect the fall in speculative activity in the commodities markets over the summer months and while the speculators have moved heavily into other markets since those days, the seasonal drop off in activity as the head traders head to the beach remains a factor - the juniors tend to flatten the books and keep things ticking over.

<ul><li>In our April monthly, we highlighted the combination of fading impulse for momentum stocks (principally tech) and the need for tax related selling in the trading/retail space coming against a background of a correction in the short term bull phase within the longer term bond bear market.</li><li>Since the beginning of March, US 10 year yields have gone from 4% to around 4.6%, unwinding the Fed Pivot language that emerged to ‘explain’ the earlier rally.</li><li>In our view that was an unlikely ex-post narrative, as is the one emerging now that the Fed will not cut at all.</li></ul>

In our April monthly, we highlighted the combination of fading impulse for momentum stocks (principally tech) and the need for tax related selling in the trading/retail space coming against a background of a correction in the short term bull phase within the longer term bond bear market.Since the beginning of March, US 10 year yields have gone from 4% to around 4.6%, unwinding the Fed Pivot language that emerged to ‘explain’ the earlier rally.In our view that was an unlikely ex-post narrative, as is the one emerging now that the Fed will not cut at all.