Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

<ul>
<li>Rapid changes in US's tariff policies have driven sharp equity volatility. For instance, since March third week, HSI's forward PE declined from 11.1x to 9.1x and bounced back to 9.5x.</li>
<li>Such severe volatility has opened up interesting investment opportunities in Asia. Screening on strong EPS growth forecasts, high ROE, low PEG, and low debt-equity, we come up with 35 stocks.</li>
<li>Our stocks are from China (15), HK (8), Korea (4), India (4), Taiwan (2). Notably, TSMC, SK Hynix, Wuxi AppTec, Galaxy Entertainment, ZTO Express, M&amp;M Finance, Muthoot Finance, Muangthai Capital.</li>
</ul>


Rapid changes in US's tariff policies have driven sharp equity volatility. For instance, since March third week, HSI's forward PE declined from 11.1x to 9.1x and bounced back to 9.5x.
Such severe volatility has opened up interesting investment opportunities in Asia. Screening on strong EPS growth forecasts, high ROE, low PEG, and low debt-equity, we come up with 35 stocks.
Our stocks are from China (15), HK (8), Korea (4), India (4), Taiwan (2). Notably, TSMC, SK Hynix, Wuxi AppTec, Galaxy Entertainment, ZTO Express, M&amp;M Finance, Muthoot Finance, Muangthai Capital.


Asian Equities: Growth at Reasonable Price After This Dislocation

Korea Electric Power (KEPCO) / Equity Bottom-Up

Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to South Korea for a variety of uses. The Company also builds and operates hydro-power, thermal-power, and nuclear power units in South Korea.

<ul>
<li>Tariff turmoil crashed S&amp;P500 by 18% and MSCI Asia ex Japan by 13% over the past couple of weeks. But even amid this carnage, a handful of stocks have appreciated.</li>
<li>These "genuine defensives" are predominantly from utilities, telecommunications and consumer staples. HK/China and Korea dominate with one entry from Singapore. They have cheap valuations, stable earnings estimates and revenue visibility.</li>
<li>In addition to eleven defensives we highlight, there are other stocks that have appreciated - notably few HK pharmaceutical stocks HK and 18 Indian stocks. They are not cheap, however.</li>
</ul>


Tariff turmoil crashed S&amp;P500 by 18% and MSCI Asia ex Japan by 13% over the past couple of weeks. But even amid this carnage, a handful of stocks have appreciated.
These "genuine defensives" are predominantly from utilities, telecommunications and consumer staples. HK/China and Korea dominate with one entry from Singapore. They have cheap valuations, stable earnings estimates and revenue visibility.
In addition to eleven defensives we highlight, there are other stocks that have appreciated - notably few HK pharmaceutical stocks HK and 18 Indian stocks. They are not cheap, however.


Asian Equities: A Few Genuine Defensives in This Bloodbath

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>As the trade war threatens to upend Asian economies' export driven growth, most will have to provide monetary and fiscal stimuli to boost domestic consumption and investments.</li>
<li>Studying their real policy rates, inflation trajectories, public debt to GDP and Government's borrowing cost, we assess which economies have adequate headroom to provide monetary and fiscal stimuli.</li>
<li>China, Korea and Thailand have adequate space to provide both monetary and fiscal stimulus. India can loosen monetary policy but not fiscal policy. Indonesia and Philippines are in India's camp.</li>
</ul>


As the trade war threatens to upend Asian economies' export driven growth, most will have to provide monetary and fiscal stimuli to boost domestic consumption and investments.
Studying their real policy rates, inflation trajectories, public debt to GDP and Government's borrowing cost, we assess which economies have adequate headroom to provide monetary and fiscal stimuli.
China, Korea and Thailand have adequate space to provide both monetary and fiscal stimulus. India can loosen monetary policy but not fiscal policy. Indonesia and Philippines are in India's camp.


Asia: Look for Economies with Headroom for Policy Support

<ul>
<li>Indian equity's recent spike overlooks near-term risks - possible cuts in consensus EPS estimates, risks arising from reciprocal tariffs and another bout of likely INR depreciation. Valuations are again expensive.</li>
<li>Our analysis of sector fundamentals foretells earnings estimate cuts in most sectors. Financials, and to a lesser extent, consumer discretionary could see upgrades. Expanding trade deficit could drive INR decline.</li>
<li>In the near term we are cautious about India. For country-dedicated investors we recommend increasing exposure to financials (particularly large cap private banks), select consumer discretionary, and defensives like utilities.</li>
</ul>


Indian equity's recent spike overlooks near-term risks - possible cuts in consensus EPS estimates, risks arising from reciprocal tariffs and another bout of likely INR depreciation. Valuations are again expensive.
Our analysis of sector fundamentals foretells earnings estimate cuts in most sectors. Financials, and to a lesser extent, consumer discretionary could see upgrades. Expanding trade deficit could drive INR decline.
In the near term we are cautious about India. For country-dedicated investors we recommend increasing exposure to financials (particularly large cap private banks), select consumer discretionary, and defensives like utilities.


Asian Equities: India – Brace for Another Leg Down in the Near Term

<ul>
<li>We analyze FIIs' and DIIs' buying/selling trend across sectors and their sector-wise stances relative to benchmarks to assess which sectors they would buy or sell in the near term.</li>
<li>FIIs and DIIs have bought consumer discretionary and healthcare secularly. They recently started buying financials and IT, after prolonged selling.  They've also secularly bought industrials, barring the last two quarters.</li>
<li>We conclude that both FIIs and DIIs shall continue to buy financials, industrials and consumer discretionary. They would also buy healthcare and sell materials, energy, IT and consumer staples.</li>
</ul>


We analyze FIIs' and DIIs' buying/selling trend across sectors and their sector-wise stances relative to benchmarks to assess which sectors they would buy or sell in the near term.
FIIs and DIIs have bought consumer discretionary and healthcare secularly. They recently started buying financials and IT, after prolonged selling.  They've also secularly bought industrials, barring the last two quarters.
We conclude that both FIIs and DIIs shall continue to buy financials, industrials and consumer discretionary. They would also buy healthcare and sell materials, energy, IT and consumer staples.


Asian Equities: India – What Would FIIs and DIIs Buy and Sell?

Dr. Manishi Raychaudhuri, with nearly three decades of experience in Asian Equities in the roles of APAC Head of Equity Research, Asian Equity Strategist and Analyst across various sectors, brings a unique cross border and cross-industry perspective to the process of investment strategy and asset allocation. He worked in senior leadership roles at BNP Paribas and UBS across Mumbai and Hong Kong. Prior to UBS, he was with ICICI Securities, then a JV with JP Morgan.

Manishi marries top-down macro-economic outlook with bottom-up sector themes to create unique alpha generative portfolios for clients. Manishi's Asia ex Japan equity model portfolio consistently generated significantly higher returns than the benchmark MSCI index over a decade. In addition to the macro strategy product, Manishi regularly publishes on key thematic ideas, creating custom baskets for investors.

A frequent participant in discussions in the print and electronic media, Manishi has been frequently interviewed by Bloomberg TV, CNBC, CNBC Arabia, Asharq Bloomberg, CNBC TV18, ET Now, NDTV Profit and several other channels. He has been widely quoted in Financial Times, Thomson Reuters, Wall Street Journal, South China Morning Post, Barron's, Forbes India, The Economic Times, Business Standard and other leading publications.