Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Three 2026 themes: (i) Continued AI spending boom, moats and monopolies to thrive, (ii) Recently commenced commodity super-cycle, especially in copper, (iii) Continued defense spending boom amid accelerating geopolitical tensions.</li>
<li>These themes are well-discussed over the past year, but recent concerns about their longevity (especially AI spending) have derated the beneficiary stocks. We think it's time to re-focus on them.</li>
<li>Our top picks: TSMC (the monopoly AI enabler), Zijin Mining (the gold and copper giant, benefitting from two super cycles) and Hanwha Aerospace (the biggest beneficiary of defense spending boom).</li>
</ul>


Three 2026 themes: (i) Continued AI spending boom, moats and monopolies to thrive, (ii) Recently commenced commodity super-cycle, especially in copper, (iii) Continued defense spending boom amid accelerating geopolitical tensions.
These themes are well-discussed over the past year, but recent concerns about their longevity (especially AI spending) have derated the beneficiary stocks. We think it's time to re-focus on them.
Our top picks: TSMC (the monopoly AI enabler), Zijin Mining (the gold and copper giant, benefitting from two super cycles) and Hanwha Aerospace (the biggest beneficiary of defense spending boom).


2026 High Conviction: Three Themes, Three Top Picks

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Rapid decline in Asian inflation is opening up space for central banks to cut rates further. India's real policy rate is almost at record high and so's China's.</li>
<li>Fiscal space exists in economies with low public debt and low fiscal deficit - Korea, Indonesia, Thailand. China and India have implemented and articulated fiscal expansion intentions.</li>
<li>Monetary policy easing supports consumption/investments through lower cost of capital and drives funds into risk assets. In last twenty years, rate cut episodes in Asia unfailingly led to equity booms.</li>
</ul>


Rapid decline in Asian inflation is opening up space for central banks to cut rates further. India's real policy rate is almost at record high and so's China's.
Fiscal space exists in economies with low public debt and low fiscal deficit - Korea, Indonesia, Thailand. China and India have implemented and articulated fiscal expansion intentions.
Monetary policy easing supports consumption/investments through lower cost of capital and drives funds into risk assets. In last twenty years, rate cut episodes in Asia unfailingly led to equity booms.


Nosediving Inflation, More Rate Cuts, Selective Fiscal Stimuli – Asian Equities to Gallop Along

<ul>
<li>Asia's forward PE and P/BV peaked in late October and are moderating now. Korea, Taiwan, China rerated the most. But viewed against ROE, Korea looks cheaper than 6 months ago.</li>
<li>Going by PE viewed against forward EPS growth and P/BV against forward ROE, the well-known conclusion - Korea cheap, India expensive - remains unaltered. Onshore China appears slightly overvalued now.</li>
<li>Persistent initiatives to improve corporate governance are boosting Korea's and Taiwan's valuation. Upward revisions in earnings estimates are getting broad-based, indicating the commencement of improving earnings momentum.</li>
</ul>


Asia's forward PE and P/BV peaked in late October and are moderating now. Korea, Taiwan, China rerated the most. But viewed against ROE, Korea looks cheaper than 6 months ago.
Going by PE viewed against forward EPS growth and P/BV against forward ROE, the well-known conclusion - Korea cheap, India expensive - remains unaltered. Onshore China appears slightly overvalued now.
Persistent initiatives to improve corporate governance are boosting Korea's and Taiwan's valuation. Upward revisions in earnings estimates are getting broad-based, indicating the commencement of improving earnings momentum.


Asian Equities: Valuation Leaderboard Reshuffle Driven by Market Reforms and Earnings Boost.

Equity Bottom-Up

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone / Equity Bottom-Up

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone operates a shipping port on the west coast of India.  The Company's port provides services for bulk and container cargo, crude oil, and railway and other added services.

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone (ADSEZ IN)

<ul>
<li>Since inception (May 15th), our Model Portfolio has appreciated 17.0% - same as MSCI Asia-ex Japan.  Since the last rebalancing (7th November) our Portfolio declined 2.5% vs MXASJ's 1.3% drop.</li>
<li>The recent underperformance came from drawdowns in Tencent Music, Tencent, Alibaba, Hynix, Hyundai Rotem, TSMC. We reduce the first two slightly, exclude BBCA, include Adani Ports, SCB, MAPI, HK Land.</li>
<li>We remain Overweight HK/China and Korea. We upgrade India to Overweight from Neutral, Thailand from Underweight to Neutral, and downgrade Indonesia to Underweight from Neutral. Stay Underweight Taiwan, Neutral Singapore.</li>
</ul>


Since inception (May 15th), our Model Portfolio has appreciated 17.0% - same as MSCI Asia-ex Japan.  Since the last rebalancing (7th November) our Portfolio declined 2.5% vs MXASJ's 1.3% drop.
The recent underperformance came from drawdowns in Tencent Music, Tencent, Alibaba, Hynix, Hyundai Rotem, TSMC. We reduce the first two slightly, exclude BBCA, include Adani Ports, SCB, MAPI, HK Land.
We remain Overweight HK/China and Korea. We upgrade India to Overweight from Neutral, Thailand from Underweight to Neutral, and downgrade Indonesia to Underweight from Neutral. Stay Underweight Taiwan, Neutral Singapore.


Asian Equities: Rebalancing Our Model Portfolio - More to India and ASEAN

<ul>
<li>From the superlative September (US$24.2 bn net buy), onshore investors' net Southbound buying dipped in October (US$11.9 bn) and November (US$15.7 bn). Xiaomi, Alibaba, PopMart and Meituan were bought most.</li>
<li>The most sold stocks during October-November were SMIC, Hua Hong Semi, Innovent Biologics. Enthusiasm for semiconductor and biotech seems to be cooling off, though we believe biotech focus should revive.</li>
<li>Investors' sustained preference is for stocks catering to domestic consumption that are able to adopt AI to improve productivity and expand their cash-generating businesses. Internet platforms fall in this silo.</li>
</ul>


From the superlative September (US$24.2 bn net buy), onshore investors' net Southbound buying dipped in October (US$11.9 bn) and November (US$15.7 bn). Xiaomi, Alibaba, PopMart and Meituan were bought most.
The most sold stocks during October-November were SMIC, Hua Hong Semi, Innovent Biologics. Enthusiasm for semiconductor and biotech seems to be cooling off, though we believe biotech focus should revive.
Investors' sustained preference is for stocks catering to domestic consumption that are able to adopt AI to improve productivity and expand their cash-generating businesses. Internet platforms fall in this silo.


Asian Equities: Southbound Zeal Dips; Some Established Themes Looking Tired, Others Rejuvenated.

Dr. Manishi Raychaudhuri, with nearly three decades of experience in Asian Equities in the roles of APAC Head of Equity Research, Asian Equity Strategist and Analyst across various sectors, brings a unique cross border and cross-industry perspective to the process of investment strategy and asset allocation. He worked in senior leadership roles at BNP Paribas and UBS across Mumbai and Hong Kong. Prior to UBS, he was with ICICI Securities, then a JV with JP Morgan.

Manishi marries top-down macro-economic outlook with bottom-up sector themes to create unique alpha generative portfolios for clients. Manishi's Asia ex Japan equity model portfolio consistently generated significantly higher returns than the benchmark MSCI index over a decade. In addition to the macro strategy product, Manishi regularly publishes on key thematic ideas, creating custom baskets for investors.

A frequent participant in discussions in the print and electronic media, Manishi has been frequently interviewed by Bloomberg TV, CNBC, CNBC Arabia, Asharq Bloomberg, CNBC TV18, ET Now, NDTV Profit and several other channels. He has been widely quoted in Financial Times, Thomson Reuters, Wall Street Journal, South China Morning Post, Barron's, Forbes India, The Economic Times, Business Standard and other leading publications.