Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

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Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Powell had to give a hawkish message and take the signal from three disappointing CPI reports but did so with a 'dovish' flavor.</li>
<li>The Federal Reserve remains well-positioned to cut rates several times this year, especially now that economic momentum is turning.</li>
<li>The question is if Powell's statement reliefs markets from the stagflationary data that have come in recently</li>
</ul>


Powell had to give a hawkish message and take the signal from three disappointing CPI reports but did so with a 'dovish' flavor.
The Federal Reserve remains well-positioned to cut rates several times this year, especially now that economic momentum is turning.
The question is if Powell's statement reliefs markets from the stagflationary data that have come in recently


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Lower US GDP growth and higher inflation have revealed that sentiment is turning negative due to the latter.</li>
<li>China is stuck between a rock and a hard place, which makes expecting a short-term devaluation of the Chinese Yuan a bit too easy.</li>
<li>Will the labor market open the door to a recession? And what's up with gold and Bitcoin lately?</li>
</ul>


Lower US GDP growth and higher inflation have revealed that sentiment is turning negative due to the latter.
China is stuck between a rock and a hard place, which makes expecting a short-term devaluation of the Chinese Yuan a bit too easy.
Will the labor market open the door to a recession? And what's up with gold and Bitcoin lately?


The Weekly Market Monitor – Is that Stagflation? And What Is China’s Impossible Choice?

<ul>
<li>China's battered-down real estate sector and everything around it are craving for more rate cuts.</li>
<li>However, with foreign direct investment plummeting, a currency depreciation would further undermine China's status as an attractive investment destination.</li>
<li>To make things worse, the Powell pivot means any depreciation-like action will likely be supersized.</li>
</ul>


China's battered-down real estate sector and everything around it are craving for more rate cuts.
However, with foreign direct investment plummeting, a currency depreciation would further undermine China's status as an attractive investment destination.
To make things worse, the Powell pivot means any depreciation-like action will likely be supersized.


<ul>
<li>Geopolitical tensions and worries about inflation are overshadowing intrinsically bullish market sentiment and decent earnings reports.</li>
<li>Contrary to what has become the latest market muse, higher interest rates do not explain the resilience of the US consumer and economy.</li>
<li>China's data dump raises serious questions about its true underlying growth momentum, suggesting that its consumers will continue to buy gold.</li>
</ul>


Geopolitical tensions and worries about inflation are overshadowing intrinsically bullish market sentiment and decent earnings reports.
Contrary to what has become the latest market muse, higher interest rates do not explain the resilience of the US consumer and economy.
China's data dump raises serious questions about its true underlying growth momentum, suggesting that its consumers will continue to buy gold.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Rockets Roar While Hawks Take Off

<ul>
<li>The massive rally in the price of gold coincided with Fed Governor Waller’s speech, in which he stated that he believes the Federal Reserve should buy more T-bills.</li>
<li>Many market pundits argue that changing narratives explain historical gold rallies.</li>
<li>But digging a bit deeper reveals that, especially since the Great Financial Crisis, the narrative behind gold's strong performance has been the same and getting stronger.</li>
</ul>


The massive rally in the price of gold coincided with Fed Governor Waller’s speech, in which he stated that he believes the Federal Reserve should buy more T-bills.
Many market pundits argue that changing narratives explain historical gold rallies.
But digging a bit deeper reveals that, especially since the Great Financial Crisis, the narrative behind gold's strong performance has been the same and getting stronger.


All-round Multi-Asset investor. Former head of a EUR 5 billion multi-asset fund range. Speaker. Charts & Frameworks. Founder of True Insights, a provider of independent investment research, trade ideas & well-diversified portfolios.
https://true-insights.net/

Jeroen Blokland
Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist
• True Insights

Powell so Wants to Cut Rates!

Despite the sign the Fed had to take from the last three CPI report, Powell squeezed in a dovish tone to a hawkish message.

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Is that Stagflation? And What Is China’s Impossible Choice?

Lower growth and higher inflation are not what markets want to see currently as Fed rate cuts get pushed out further. Meanwhile, China faces a...

Jeroen Blokland

Is the Yuan Ripe for Devaluation?

Many await a Chinese currency depreciation, but with foreign investment and capital markets collapsing, things are complicated.

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Rockets Roar While Hawks Take Off

Missiles and drones have been fired, and Powell has pivoted on future rate cuts as inflation worries mount while China continues to struggle. This...

Jeroen Blokland

The Rally in Gold: Clear as Day

The rally in gold is driven to a large extent by the same, not changing, narrative, and that narrative is getting stronger!

Jeroen Blokland