Global EM Credit & Equity Investor, Bondcritic

Ian Archer

Global EM Credit & Equity Investor

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

<p>The recent power struggle in Saudi Arabia triggered a bond sell-off in the Kingdom’s sovereign bonds. We believe that the sell-off has been overdone, and that investors should use the current uncertainty to buy Saudi USD government debt which offers good value relative to peers.   The YTM of this Saudi 5Y note has decreased by 21bps since the height of the crisis in early November. The spread vs the US 5Y Treasury has now increased by 9bps since the beginning of the crisis. At the height of the…</p>

The recent power struggle in Saudi Arabia triggered a bond sell-off in the Kingdom’s sovereign bonds. We believe that the sell-off has been overdone, and that investors should use the current uncertainty to buy Saudi USD government debt which offers good value relative to peers.   The YTM of this Saudi 5Y note has decreased by 21bps since the height of the crisis in early November. The spread vs the US 5Y Treasury has now increased by 9bps since the beginning of the crisis. At the height of the…

Saudi Arabia: A Corruption Crackdown Presents a Buying Opportunity

PhosAgro PJSC is a global vertically integrated phosphate-based fertilizer producer. The Company focuses on the production of phosphate-based fertilizers, feed phosphate, and high-grade phosphate rock, as well as ammonia and nitrogen-based fertilizers.

<p>Phosagro, the largest standalone fertilizer producer in Europe, has been victimized by the Ruble's appreciation vs the USD and weak fertilizer prices. It appears that the company has been slow to reduce its local currency operating costs, and may be hurt by a prolonged decline in product prices.</p><h2>Valuation</h2><p>Phosagro has 2 bonds outstanding which account for USD1bn of the total USD1.3bn in long-term debt. Phosagro’s USD500-mn LPN 3.95% 11/21s (BB+ by Fitch) were priced at 4.5% at issuance with…</p>

Phosagro, the largest standalone fertilizer producer in Europe, has been victimized by the Ruble's appreciation vs the USD and weak fertilizer prices. It appears that the company has been slow to reduce its local currency operating costs, and may be hurt by a prolonged decline in product prices.ValuationPhosagro has 2 bonds outstanding which account for USD1bn of the total USD1.3bn in long-term debt. Phosagro’s USD500-mn LPN 3.95% 11/21s (BB+ by Fitch) were priced at 4.5% at issuance with…

PhosAgro PJSC (PHOR LI): Weakening Credit Metrics on Depressed Fertilizer Prices