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Heteronomics AI

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Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Banco de la República reduced the benchmark rate by 25bps to 9.50%, undershooting market expectations of a 50bp cut due to concerns over persistent inflation and exchange rate volatility.</li><li>While headline inflation fell to 5.2% in November, stable core inflation and peso depreciation constrain BanRep’s scope for faster rate cuts, as imported inflation risks remain significant.</li><li>Robust Q3 GDP growth and a resilient labour market support gradual monetary easing; however, heightened external financial pressures and fiscal uncertainties will heavily influence future policy decisions.</li></ul><div><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></div>

Banco de la República reduced the benchmark rate by 25bps to 9.50%, undershooting market expectations of a 50bp cut due to concerns over persistent inflation and exchange rate volatility.While headline inflation fell to 5.2% in November, stable core inflation and peso depreciation constrain BanRep’s scope for faster rate cuts, as imported inflation risks remain significant.Robust Q3 GDP growth and a resilient labour market support gradual monetary easing; however, heightened external financial pressures and fiscal uncertainties will heavily influence future policy decisions.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Colombia: 25bp Rate Cut To 9.5% (Consensus 9.25%) in Dec-24

<ul><li>The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25bp to 2.5%, meeting consensus expectations and reflecting a total reduction of 1.5 percentage points since May 2024 to support weak economic activity and stabilise inflation near the target.</li><li>Forward guidance indicates the potential for another rate cut in H1 2025, contingent on stable inflation and growth projections, emphasising evaluating the lagged effects of earlier policy adjustments.</li><li>External uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and trade policy ambiguities, alongside domestic risks, such as the krona's exchange rate and fragile recovery momentum, will influence future monetary policy decisions.</li></ul><div><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></div>

The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25bp to 2.5%, meeting consensus expectations and reflecting a total reduction of 1.5 percentage points since May 2024 to support weak economic activity and stabilise inflation near the target.Forward guidance indicates the potential for another rate cut in H1 2025, contingent on stable inflation and growth projections, emphasising evaluating the lagged effects of earlier policy adjustments.External uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and trade policy ambiguities, alongside domestic risks, such as the krona's exchange rate and fragile recovery momentum, will influence future monetary policy decisions.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Sweden: 25bp Rate Cut to 2.5% (Consensus 2.5%) in Dec-24

<ul><li>The Norges Bank held the policy rate at 4.5%, aligning with the consensus, and signalled potential easing from March 2025, contingent on continued economic moderation.</li><li>Inflation has slowed significantly but remains above target, constrained by high wage growth and business costs; domestic activity has exceeded expectations, while unemployment remains stable.</li><li>The outlook is marked by uncertainty, with risks from global trade policy and domestic inflationary pressures influencing the trajectory of future rate adjustments.</li></ul><div><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></div>

The Norges Bank held the policy rate at 4.5%, aligning with the consensus, and signalled potential easing from March 2025, contingent on continued economic moderation.Inflation has slowed significantly but remains above target, constrained by high wage growth and business costs; domestic activity has exceeded expectations, while unemployment remains stable.The outlook is marked by uncertainty, with risks from global trade policy and domestic inflationary pressures influencing the trajectory of future rate adjustments.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Norway: Rates Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in Dec-24

<ul><li>Banco de México reduced the overnight interbank rate by 25 basis points to 10.00%, continuing its cautious easing amid declining headline and core inflation trends. Global inflation persistence adds uncertainty.</li><li>It expects inflation to reach the 3% target by Q3 2026, but risks remain skewed to the upside, driven by potential trade policy shifts, persistent services inflation, and geopolitical disruptions.</li><li>Future rate decisions will balance the easing cycle with the need for a restrictive stance. They will rely on data to assess the fading of global shocks and domestic inflationary pressures.</li></ul><div><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></div>

Banco de México reduced the overnight interbank rate by 25 basis points to 10.00%, continuing its cautious easing amid declining headline and core inflation trends. Global inflation persistence adds uncertainty.It expects inflation to reach the 3% target by Q3 2026, but risks remain skewed to the upside, driven by potential trade policy shifts, persistent services inflation, and geopolitical disruptions.Future rate decisions will balance the easing cycle with the need for a restrictive stance. They will rely on data to assess the fading of global shocks and domestic inflationary pressures.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Mexico: 25bp Rate Cut To 10.0% (Consensus 10.0%) in Dec-24

<ul><li>The BoJ kept its policy rate at 0.25%, aligning with consensus expectations. Domestic recovery and stabilising inflation reduced the need for immediate policy adjustments.</li><li>It forecasts inflation to stabilise near the 2% target by fiscal 2025, supported by an improving output gap and rising medium-term inflation expectations, despite external risks and commodity price fluctuations.</li><li>The BoJ’s review of its monetary policy emphasised flexibility in achieving sustainable inflation, with a continued focus on balancing growth-supportive measures against evolving domestic and global risks.</li></ul><div><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></div>

The BoJ kept its policy rate at 0.25%, aligning with consensus expectations. Domestic recovery and stabilising inflation reduced the need for immediate policy adjustments.It forecasts inflation to stabilise near the 2% target by fiscal 2025, supported by an improving output gap and rising medium-term inflation expectations, despite external risks and commodity price fluctuations.The BoJ’s review of its monetary policy emphasised flexibility in achieving sustainable inflation, with a continued focus on balancing growth-supportive measures against evolving domestic and global risks.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Japan: Policy Rate Held At 0.25% (Consensus 0.25%) in Dec-24