New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

ikeGPS Group Limited develops and produces location-based measurement devices and accessories to integrate digital camera and laser range finder technologies. The Company offers devices and accessories to capture a GPS location and photo of remote targets, and measures the distance and heights of objects.

<ul><li>ikeGPS (IKE) has announced a major new Transactions contract, which is expected to generate ~NZ$19m of revenue over the next 36 months.</li><li>The announcement of this contract, which represents ~68% of our cumulative Transactions revenue for FY25, FY26 and FY27, significantly de-risks our estimates over the next three years.</li><li>Transaction revenue is inherently volatile and the key swing factor in IKE's performance. </li></ul>

ikeGPS (IKE) has announced a major new Transactions contract, which is expected to generate ~NZ$19m of revenue over the next 36 months.The announcement of this contract, which represents ~68% of our cumulative Transactions revenue for FY25, FY26 and FY27, significantly de-risks our estimates over the next three years.Transaction revenue is inherently volatile and the key swing factor in IKE's performance. 

EBOS Group Limited supplies and distributes medical consumable products and equipment to the hospital and primary care sectors of the New Zealand and Australian healthcare markets. The Company's products include diagnostic instruments, surgical instruments and prosthesis, feminine protection, anesthetic equipment, and other consumer products.

<ul><li>The latest NZ Nielsen supermarket scan data shows continued solid market share gains and growth for EBOS Group's (EBO) key brands.</li><li>In the period ended 30 June EBO recorded +9% year-on-year growth on a 12 month rolling basis despite category growth slowing.</li><li>The strength is led by Superior Pet Food with high teens growth and &gt;+100bps of market share gains over the past 12 months. </li></ul>

The latest NZ Nielsen supermarket scan data shows continued solid market share gains and growth for EBOS Group's (EBO) key brands.In the period ended 30 June EBO recorded +9% year-on-year growth on a 12 month rolling basis despite category growth slowing.The strength is led by Superior Pet Food with high teens growth and &gt;+100bps of market share gains over the past 12 months. 

Vector Limited is an energy infrastructure company in New Zealand that provides electricity and gas transmission and distribution along with metering.  The Company is also a wholesaler of LPG and natural gas.  Vector also delivers broadband voice and data communications in the Auckland and Wellington regions.

<ul><li>Falling interest rates are coming at the wrong time for Vector (VCT), as the halfway point for the Commerce Commission's (ComCom) risk-free rate setting process has just passed.</li><li>Lower interest rates reduce the regulatory cost of capital impacting VCT's electricity revenue under its default price path (DPP4).</li><li>Lower interest rates, however, do help valuation metrics. </li></ul>

Falling interest rates are coming at the wrong time for Vector (VCT), as the halfway point for the Commerce Commission's (ComCom) risk-free rate setting process has just passed.Lower interest rates reduce the regulatory cost of capital impacting VCT's electricity revenue under its default price path (DPP4).Lower interest rates, however, do help valuation metrics. 

Vector - Unhelpful Interest - 4Q24 Op Stats

Turners Limited specialized personal insurance. The Company provides motor vehicle and personal financial services, and hire purchase services and investment advisory services to businesses.  Dorchester also provides immigration consultancy services assisting business migrants and families.

<ul><li>We initiate full coverage of Turners Automotive Group (TRA) with an OUTPERFORM rating and a 12-month target price of NZ$5.30.</li><li>TRA is a high quality operator which has gained market share and grown earnings through the interest rate cycle.</li><li>We see a clear pathway to further earnings growth driven by (1) footprint expansion from new branches, (2) margin recovery and book growth in its Finance segment as the OCR falls and (3) further sales channel optimisation in its Auto Retail segment. </li></ul>

We initiate full coverage of Turners Automotive Group (TRA) with an OUTPERFORM rating and a 12-month target price of NZ$5.30.TRA is a high quality operator which has gained market share and grown earnings through the interest rate cycle.We see a clear pathway to further earnings growth driven by (1) footprint expansion from new branches, (2) margin recovery and book growth in its Finance segment as the OCR falls and (3) further sales channel optimisation in its Auto Retail segment. 

Turners Automotive Group Ltd - No Need to Shift Gears, Growth on Track

Arvida Group Ltd owns and operates senior care living facilities in New Zealand.

<ul><li>Arvida Group's (ARV) board has unanimously recommended a NZ$1.70 per share takeover bid from Stonepeak, a US based infrastructure and real assets investor.</li><li>The bid represents a ~+65% premium to its previous close, ~0.83x last reported net tangible assets (NTA; NZ$2.05) and on 24 month forward consensus estimates ~18x EV/Annuity EBITDA and ~24x annuity PE. </li><li>Stonepeak has completed its due diligence on ARV and the bid is now conditional on regulatory and shareholder approvals. </li></ul>

Arvida Group's (ARV) board has unanimously recommended a NZ$1.70 per share takeover bid from Stonepeak, a US based infrastructure and real assets investor.The bid represents a ~+65% premium to its previous close, ~0.83x last reported net tangible assets (NTA; NZ$2.05) and on 24 month forward consensus estimates ~18x EV/Annuity EBITDA and ~24x annuity PE. Stonepeak has completed its due diligence on ARV and the bid is now conditional on regulatory and shareholder approvals. 

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services. Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE). Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.