High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

<ul><li>For years, the company’s execution in the automotive hardware business has been disappointing.</li><li>The staler the product line-up got, the more margins got squeezed and growth expectations faltered.</li><li>This has put the FSD optionality front and center in the Tesla bull case. So much, that I had previously estimated that it commands north of 70% of the market capitalization.</li></ul>

For years, the company’s execution in the automotive hardware business has been disappointing.The staler the product line-up got, the more margins got squeezed and growth expectations faltered.This has put the FSD optionality front and center in the Tesla bull case. So much, that I had previously estimated that it commands north of 70% of the market capitalization.

The Most Surprising Thing About Tesla's 3Q24

<ul><li>Elon has given up on his ambitious targets. Or he has never seriously pursued them.</li><li>Tesla’s investor event “We, Robot” was nothing more than a theme park for adults who were there to indulge into an illusion for a night.</li><li>Why would they conduct such a ridiculous event that suggests that they have nothing up their sleeves that can create tens of billions of dollars of AI revenue soon? </li></ul>

Elon has given up on his ambitious targets. Or he has never seriously pursued them.Tesla’s investor event “We, Robot” was nothing more than a theme park for adults who were there to indulge into an illusion for a night.Why would they conduct such a ridiculous event that suggests that they have nothing up their sleeves that can create tens of billions of dollars of AI revenue soon? 

Root, Inc. of Ohio operates as a technology company in the insurance industry. The Company offers mobile telematics and technology platform to segment individual risk based on complex behavioral data and a customer experience to make pricing decision and grow business. Root serves customers in the United States.

<ul><li>Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate shock.</li><li>This impulse will likely diminish over the next months. It will be replaced by a credit impulse from rate cuts, the first few of which will be very powerful.</li><li>Market mechanics will be accommodating. Leverage in the system is low. In fact, the pain trade is still higher.</li></ul>

Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate shock.This impulse will likely diminish over the next months. It will be replaced by a credit impulse from rate cuts, the first few of which will be very powerful.Market mechanics will be accommodating. Leverage in the system is low. In fact, the pain trade is still higher.

New York Community Bank / Equity Bottom-Up

New York Community Bancorp, Inc. is a multi-bank holding company. The Company, through its banking subsidiaries, offers a full range of traditional and non-traditional products and services, and originates multi-family, commercial real estate, and construction loans, primarily in the New York metropolitan area.

<ul><li>March 2023 was a noteworthy month for US stock market investors. It was one of only two significant corrections in an otherwise stellar year.</li><li>The other one was in October driven by an interest rate scare.</li><li>Usually a cocktail of several reasons is needed to create a correction. These typically involve technical, seasonal and fundamental/macro factors.</li></ul>

March 2023 was a noteworthy month for US stock market investors. It was one of only two significant corrections in an otherwise stellar year.The other one was in October driven by an interest rate scare.Usually a cocktail of several reasons is needed to create a correction. These typically involve technical, seasonal and fundamental/macro factors.

AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF / Equity Bottom-Up

The AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF is an actively managed exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The fund seeks to seeks long-term capital appreciation by investing in the US Cannabis industry.

AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS US)

<ul><li>Investing into cannabis stocks has been a soul-crushing experience for investors over the past 10 years.</li><li>Check out the performance of the Global Cannabis Stock Index below.</li><li>It’s effectively a complete wipe-out.</li></ul>

Investing into cannabis stocks has been a soul-crushing experience for investors over the past 10 years.Check out the performance of the Global Cannabis Stock Index below.It’s effectively a complete wipe-out.

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas.

I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements.

As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.