Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>US and China treasury yields highlight inflation control challenges, with the Fed's rate cut fueling market uncertainty.</li>
<li>Asia's mixed monetary decisions saw Japan hold rates, while the Philippines' cuts worsened currency pressures.</li>
<li>China's retail sales remain resilient despite lower growth expectations, contrasting with declining real sales in the US.</li>
</ul>


US and China treasury yields highlight inflation control challenges, with the Fed's rate cut fueling market uncertainty.
Asia's mixed monetary decisions saw Japan hold rates, while the Philippines' cuts worsened currency pressures.
China's retail sales remain resilient despite lower growth expectations, contrasting with declining real sales in the US.


Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 20 Dec 2024

<div><div data-message-author-role="assistant" data-message-id="37df0dae-7613-46e6-b681-df95fab6943a" data-message-model-slug="gpt-4o"><div><div><ul><li>US Inflation Debate: Mixed CPI trends suggest interest rate cuts are market-driven, with asset price inflation overlooked.</li><li>Japan's Economic Struggles: Soft GDP growth and rising wage costs raise doubts over premature interest rate hikes.</li><li>China and Philippines Outlook: China favors sustainable growth, while the Philippines faces deepening trade deficits and an overvalued peso.</li></ul></div></div></div></div>

US Inflation Debate: Mixed CPI trends suggest interest rate cuts are market-driven, with asset price inflation overlooked.Japan's Economic Struggles: Soft GDP growth and rising wage costs raise doubts over premature interest rate hikes.China and Philippines Outlook: China favors sustainable growth, while the Philippines faces deepening trade deficits and an overvalued peso.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 13 Dec 2024

<ul>
<li>US Focus Shift: Trump’s reelection likely prioritizes domestic issues over international tensions, with potential prolonged high US interest rates impacting global economies.</li>
<li>Asia’s Resilience: China stabilizes growth, India continues its upward cycle, and regional PMI figures reflect steady economic activity despite global uncertainties.</li>
<li>Global Divide: Asia holds steady, while US manufacturing contracts and Europe faces deepening recession, highlighting stark contrasts in economic performance.</li>
</ul>


US Focus Shift: Trump’s reelection likely prioritizes domestic issues over international tensions, with potential prolonged high US interest rates impacting global economies.
Asia’s Resilience: China stabilizes growth, India continues its upward cycle, and regional PMI figures reflect steady economic activity despite global uncertainties.
Global Divide: Asia holds steady, while US manufacturing contracts and Europe faces deepening recession, highlighting stark contrasts in economic performance.


Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 6 Dec 2024

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<p>Korea’s Economic Struggles: Bank of Korea delivered a modest 25 basis point rate cut amid weak GDP growth, falling consumer prices, and high household and corporate debt.</p>
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<p>Economic Indicators: Korea's GDP growth for 2024 is projected at 2.2%, significantly below the pre-COVID average of 2.9%.</p>
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<p>Rate Cut Outlook: Additional rate cuts are anticipated in early 2025, aiming to drive an investment-led recovery and address economic challenges.</p>
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Korea’s Economic Struggles: Bank of Korea delivered a modest 25 basis point rate cut amid weak GDP growth, falling consumer prices, and high household and corporate debt.


Economic Indicators: Korea's GDP growth for 2024 is projected at 2.2%, significantly below the pre-COVID average of 2.9%.


Rate Cut Outlook: Additional rate cuts are anticipated in early 2025, aiming to drive an investment-led recovery and address economic challenges.







Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 29 Nov 2024

<ul>
<li>The investment side in Malaysia over the post COVID years has really taken off.</li>
<li>In Thailand, private investment contracted (-1.4%), reflecting political and economic challenges driving offshore investments.</li>
<li>Bangkok has seen little progress in mobility since the mid-1990s.</li>
</ul>


The investment side in Malaysia over the post COVID years has really taken off.
In Thailand, private investment contracted (-1.4%), reflecting political and economic challenges driving offshore investments.
Bangkok has seen little progress in mobility since the mid-1990s.


Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 22 Nov 2024

Jim Walker is the chief economist at Aletheia Analyst Network Limited, an independent research platform for the Asia Pacific region. Prior to joining Aletheia he was the founder and chief economist at Asianomics Group an economics and strategy research consultancy company formed in late 2007. 

Before establishing Asianomics he was the chief economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. He joined CLSA in late 1991. Over the years Dr Jim achieved numerous ‘best economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. In 1995 he wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.

In recent years he is best known for forecasting the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in his series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports. He remains deeply sceptical of the prevailing wisdom in central banks’ approach to monetary policy.

Over the years he has also developed an approach to analysing Asian economies based on profit and credit cycles where the importance of investment spending as the driver of economic activity is explained.

Early in his career he worked in his native Scotland as a research fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute for Research on the Scottish Economy, and then at The Royal Bank of Scotland’s Edinburgh headquarters. He holds a Bachelor of Arts Honours degree and a doctorate in economics from the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.