Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Japanese Yen: The yen has significantly weakened, leading the US to label Japan as a potential currency manipulator; interest rate differentials and potential sales of US Treasuries are key factors.</li><li>Singapore Inflation: Inflation remains high at 3.1%, with historical parallels suggesting potential appreciation of the Singapore dollar by 4-5% if inflation doesn't fall below 2%.</li><li>US Economic Indicators: Despite perceptions of a strong economy, recent US activity indicators, including manufacturing and services, show persistent weaknesses.</li></ul>

Japanese Yen: The yen has significantly weakened, leading the US to label Japan as a potential currency manipulator; interest rate differentials and potential sales of US Treasuries are key factors.Singapore Inflation: Inflation remains high at 3.1%, with historical parallels suggesting potential appreciation of the Singapore dollar by 4-5% if inflation doesn't fall below 2%.US Economic Indicators: Despite perceptions of a strong economy, recent US activity indicators, including manufacturing and services, show persistent weaknesses.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 28 Jun 2024

<ul><li>China's Economic Performance: Despite negative media reports, China shows strong year-on-year growth in industrial production and retail sales, outperforming other major economies.</li><li><p>Misreported Inflation: China meets the 2% inflation target better than most, with misconceptions about deflation being clarified in recent reports.</p></li><li><p>Japan's Economic Struggles: Japan's export growth appears positive in yen but declines in USD terms, reflecting weak domestic demand.</p></li></ul>

China's Economic Performance: Despite negative media reports, China shows strong year-on-year growth in industrial production and retail sales, outperforming other major economies.Misreported Inflation: China meets the 2% inflation target better than most, with misconceptions about deflation being clarified in recent reports.Japan's Economic Struggles: Japan's export growth appears positive in yen but declines in USD terms, reflecting weak domestic demand.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 21 Jun 2024

<ul>
<li>US CPI and Fed: US CPI at 0, potential Fed rate cuts speculated, cautious outlook from Fed.</li>
<li>China Optimism: "Age of Plenty" report shows optimism due to exports, tech, infrastructure.</li>
<li>Global Confidence: China improves, Thailand face declines and political challenges; Japan struggles despite stimulus.</li>
</ul>


US CPI and Fed: US CPI at 0, potential Fed rate cuts speculated, cautious outlook from Fed.
China Optimism: "Age of Plenty" report shows optimism due to exports, tech, infrastructure.
Global Confidence: China improves, Thailand face declines and political challenges; Japan struggles despite stimulus.


Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 14 Jun 2024

<ul>
<li>Asian PMIs and US Economic Concerns: India leads the region with a strong PMI of 57, while Hong Kong reports a decline. The US PMI is troubling, with new orders dropping significantly, reflected in declining demand in the trucking industry.</li>
<li>Indian General Election Results: The BJP performed weaker than expected, contrary to exit polls but despite that the National Democratic Alliance retained power with Modi as Prime Minister. Economic activities and projects remain strong, indicating positive economic growth momentum.</li>
<li>Economic Outlook and Upcoming Reports: India's GDP growth remains robust. An upcoming China report aims to provide new insights, challenging perceptions formed by mainstream Western media.</li>
</ul>


Asian PMIs and US Economic Concerns: India leads the region with a strong PMI of 57, while Hong Kong reports a decline. The US PMI is troubling, with new orders dropping significantly, reflected in declining demand in the trucking industry.
Indian General Election Results: The BJP performed weaker than expected, contrary to exit polls but despite that the National Democratic Alliance retained power with Modi as Prime Minister. Economic activities and projects remain strong, indicating positive economic growth momentum.
Economic Outlook and Upcoming Reports: India's GDP growth remains robust. An upcoming China report aims to provide new insights, challenging perceptions formed by mainstream Western media.


Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 7 Jun 2024

<ul><li>Indonesia's President-elect Prabowo Subianto's impact on the economy is uncertain, with a need for increased foreign direct investment and improved economic strategies.</li><li>China's steady economic recovery features strong exports and government efforts to stabilize the property market, with a growing demand for wealth management products and longer-term bonds.</li><li>The US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain higher interest rates throughout 2024 due to strong employment and high inflation, contrasting with more favorable borrowing conditions in China.</li></ul>

Indonesia's President-elect Prabowo Subianto's impact on the economy is uncertain, with a need for increased foreign direct investment and improved economic strategies.China's steady economic recovery features strong exports and government efforts to stabilize the property market, with a growing demand for wealth management products and longer-term bonds.The US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain higher interest rates throughout 2024 due to strong employment and high inflation, contrasting with more favorable borrowing conditions in China.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 24 May 2024

Jim Walker is the chief economist at Aletheia Analyst Network Limited, an independent research platform for the Asia Pacific region. Prior to joining Aletheia he was the founder and chief economist at Asianomics Group an economics and strategy research consultancy company formed in late 2007. 

Before establishing Asianomics he was the chief economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. He joined CLSA in late 1991. Over the years Dr Jim achieved numerous ‘best economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. In 1995 he wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.

In recent years he is best known for forecasting the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in his series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports. He remains deeply sceptical of the prevailing wisdom in central banks’ approach to monetary policy.

Over the years he has also developed an approach to analysing Asian economies based on profit and credit cycles where the importance of investment spending as the driver of economic activity is explained.

Early in his career he worked in his native Scotland as a research fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute for Research on the Scottish Economy, and then at The Royal Bank of Scotland’s Edinburgh headquarters. He holds a Bachelor of Arts Honours degree and a doctorate in economics from the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.