Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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Aehr had a messy print, with the core business actually weaker than expected as they incorporated their recent acquisition. It’s hard to stay bearish, as they have a lot of potential product launches coming.
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TSMC beat gross margins despite everything because of higher utilization. The logic cycle is starting to kick off in earnest. I believe WFE Capex will be much higher next year.
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ASML talked up high-NA DRAM insertion on 25/26. Only Samsung could do it. Good luck, Samsung!

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Aehr had a messy print, with the core business actually weaker than expected as they incorporated their recent acquisition. It’s hard to stay bearish, as they have a lot of potential product launches coming.


TSMC beat gross margins despite everything because of higher utilization. The logic cycle is starting to kick off in earnest. I believe WFE Capex will be much higher next year.


ASML talked up high-NA DRAM insertion on 25/26. Only Samsung could do it. Good luck, Samsung!




Earnings: TSMC, AEHR, ASML, VAT Group, Export Restrictions

<ul><li>I’m calling a very definitive bottom in Automotive semiconductor stocks. I’ve been mixed on automotive for quite some time, and as <a href="https://substack.com/redirect/5790f9d3-6893-4bb2-a524-8f9dbf7e9c34?j=eyJ1IjoiMmh6Z2Z6In0.muIDtmM5oyqUKBSSZiLNsipOMwhSsKSSacAB3JlN14Y" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://substack.com/redirect/5790f9d3-6893-4bb2-a524-8f9dbf7e9c34?j%3DeyJ1IjoiMmh6Z2Z6In0.muIDtmM5oyqUKBSSZiLNsipOMwhSsKSSacAB3JlN14Y&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1720973694340000&amp;usg=AOvVaw38mcvWmTf_q2mIEfNJ5AFx" rel="noopener">recently as April</a>, I was bearish.</li><li>It all started when China decided to dump cheap EVs globally, which made me extremely concerned about Western automotive companies.</li><li>Hell, I’ve been bearish on WOLF since March of 2023 and wrote not <a href="https://substack.com/redirect/222352a3-f4ec-4ad4-9492-bcbe4dbe0428?j=eyJ1IjoiMmh6Z2Z6In0.muIDtmM5oyqUKBSSZiLNsipOMwhSsKSSacAB3JlN14Y" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://substack.com/redirect/222352a3-f4ec-4ad4-9492-bcbe4dbe0428?j%3DeyJ1IjoiMmh6Z2Z6In0.muIDtmM5oyqUKBSSZiLNsipOMwhSsKSSacAB3JlN14Y&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1720973694340000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2H31vk6Zhtmle4-LByeAg_" rel="noopener">one</a> but <a href="https://substack.com/redirect/b1c186e8-a6a8-43df-baf3-7a1f4faea5bd?j=eyJ1IjoiMmh6Z2Z6In0.muIDtmM5oyqUKBSSZiLNsipOMwhSsKSSacAB3JlN14Y" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://substack.com/redirect/b1c186e8-a6a8-43df-baf3-7a1f4faea5bd?j%3DeyJ1IjoiMmh6Z2Z6In0.muIDtmM5oyqUKBSSZiLNsipOMwhSsKSSacAB3JlN14Y&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1720973694340000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3ueHW7qUncexChMGD0Ye0G" rel="noopener">two</a> notes about how Silicon Carbide looks like it’s in a rough spot.</li></ul>

I’m calling a very definitive bottom in Automotive semiconductor stocks. I’ve been mixed on automotive for quite some time, and as recently as April, I was bearish.It all started when China decided to dump cheap EVs globally, which made me extremely concerned about Western automotive companies.Hell, I’ve been bearish on WOLF since March of 2023 and wrote not one but two notes about how Silicon Carbide looks like it’s in a rough spot.

Equity Bottom-Up

Applied Blockchain Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

Applied Blockchain, Inc. operates as a technology company. The Company focuses on Ethereum and Altcoins. Applied Blockchain serves customers worldwide.

<ul><li>Doug O’Laughlin: Today, on Fabricated Knowledge, I have the privilege of having Wes from Applied Digital on to talk about Applied Digital.</li><li>Today, we're gonna talk about the change in his business model. The company is experiencing a lot of changes, and there are a lot of new things in the pipeline.</li><li>And so I just wanted to sit him down and have an opportunity to chat about that. </li></ul>

Doug O’Laughlin: Today, on Fabricated Knowledge, I have the privilege of having Wes from Applied Digital on to talk about Applied Digital.Today, we're gonna talk about the change in his business model. The company is experiencing a lot of changes, and there are a lot of new things in the pipeline.And so I just wanted to sit him down and have an opportunity to chat about that. 

An Interview with Wes Cummins, CEO of Applied Digital

<ul><li>This is my quarterly piece, where I round up all of my favorite ideas (more explicitly) and explain some semiconductor jargon. This is a meta piece of content.</li><li>First and foremost, I’ll start with performance. SMH returned 14% this quarter, among the best quarters in history for the semiconductor universe (again).</li><li>This quarter's leader was AOSL, who is rumored to have won a socket at Nvidia.</li></ul>

This is my quarterly piece, where I round up all of my favorite ideas (more explicitly) and explain some semiconductor jargon. This is a meta piece of content.First and foremost, I’ll start with performance. SMH returned 14% this quarter, among the best quarters in history for the semiconductor universe (again).This quarter's leader was AOSL, who is rumored to have won a socket at Nvidia.

Fabricated Knowledge Q2 2024 Quarterly Review

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<li>Micron's earnings were… acceptable.</li>
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The market didn’t like the guide, but I think it is more of a function of expectations management.
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Micron is clearly on the upswing, and the stock needs healthy revenue and profit beats.

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Micron's earnings were… acceptable.

The market didn’t like the guide, but I think it is more of a function of expectations management.


Micron is clearly on the upswing, and the stock needs healthy revenue and profit beats.




Micron Earnings, SiTime, Consumer, and Applied Materials Insider Sale

I was formerly employed at a Texas firm called Bowie Capital (https://www.bowiecapital.com/), where I started out of college. There I focused on compounders and quality-focused investing and had an incredible experience that let me grow as an investor. I owe a lot to my mentor and former boss, Cory Whitaker.

From there, I became interested in semiconductors, specifically the changing story of the end of Moore’s law and what that means for semiconductor stocks. I started Fabricated Knowledge as a project to further pursue that; the rest is history.