Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>MAS releases quarterly granular data on Singapore banks' credit card charge-offs and the figures are rising sharply</li>
<li>It is not easily visible in banks' own interim results, so that we must use the MAS data as a window on card credit metrics</li>
<li>Credit card charge off rates are now (4Q24) 5.4% vs 4.2% YoY while the total charge-offs are now SGD110.0m in 4Q24 vs SGDm74.7m in 4Q23</li>
</ul>


MAS releases quarterly granular data on Singapore banks' credit card charge-offs and the figures are rising sharply
It is not easily visible in banks' own interim results, so that we must use the MAS data as a window on card credit metrics
Credit card charge off rates are now (4Q24) 5.4% vs 4.2% YoY while the total charge-offs are now SGD110.0m in 4Q24 vs SGDm74.7m in 4Q23


Singapore Banks - Charge off Rates on Cards Are Rising Substantially Through 4Q24

<ul>
<li>While loan growth continues to accelerate for US banks in weekly HFD, the single most important driver is loans to other financial institutions</li>
<li>Cash growth is also very high and can be a sign of risk aversion, with cash up USD196bn vs loans up USD98bn from end Jan to 9 April </li>
<li>It is unclear which of the institutions contained in the Fed definition of other FI's, where commercial banks are lending, but it does not feel core</li>
</ul>


While loan growth continues to accelerate for US banks in weekly HFD, the single most important driver is loans to other financial institutions
Cash growth is also very high and can be a sign of risk aversion, with cash up USD196bn vs loans up USD98bn from end Jan to 9 April 
It is unclear which of the institutions contained in the Fed definition of other FI's, where commercial banks are lending, but it does not feel core


US Banks - Loans to Other FI's and Cash, Are Driving Most All Growth, Neither Is Positive

<ul>
<li>There are significant deposits at banks in the US, near all time high levels, at USD17.9 trillion in the most recent week's data</li>
<li>With lower interest rates, there is less propensity to save in bank deposits, we are seeing this well with Jumbo Time Deposits</li>
<li>Against a volatile stock market it is worth keeping in mind, the incredibly high level of deposits at US banks</li>
</ul>


There are significant deposits at banks in the US, near all time high levels, at USD17.9 trillion in the most recent week's data
With lower interest rates, there is less propensity to save in bank deposits, we are seeing this well with Jumbo Time Deposits
Against a volatile stock market it is worth keeping in mind, the incredibly high level of deposits at US banks


US Stock Market - Deposits of USD17,948billion Sit in US Banks. Potential Flow to Markets.

<ul>
<li>US banks report weekly balance sheets, and the data is an good gauge for what we can expect during 1Q25 for profit, and especially core income, at least directionally. </li>
<li>The most recent loan growth data is now even stronger than before, and this is what matters: the weekly data is accelerating. </li>
<li>The pace of weekly YoY growth now is 2.7% during 1Q25 while this was 2.0% during 1Q24, the second derivative is also improving vastly, now up 33% YoY</li>
</ul>


US banks report weekly balance sheets, and the data is an good gauge for what we can expect during 1Q25 for profit, and especially core income, at least directionally. 
The most recent loan growth data is now even stronger than before, and this is what matters: the weekly data is accelerating. 
The pace of weekly YoY growth now is 2.7% during 1Q25 while this was 2.0% during 1Q24, the second derivative is also improving vastly, now up 33% YoY


US Banks - Average YoY Loan Growth During 1Q25 Weeks Is 33% Higher than During Weeks in 1Q24

<ul>
<li>Newest monthly release from MAS gives insight into 1Q25 for Singapore's banks and it is not particularly positive </li>
<li>The aggregate loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) continues to move lower, a year ago it was 69.3% and now it's at 67.3%</li>
<li>Singapore's banks added deposits of SGD125bn in the past 12 months through February compared with SGD48bn of loans</li>
</ul>


Newest monthly release from MAS gives insight into 1Q25 for Singapore's banks and it is not particularly positive 
The aggregate loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) continues to move lower, a year ago it was 69.3% and now it's at 67.3%
Singapore's banks added deposits of SGD125bn in the past 12 months through February compared with SGD48bn of loans


Singapore Banks - Credit Growth Overshadowed by Deposit Growth, New Monthly HFD

The Tabbush Report: Asian bank research and consultancy, without the noise.

Daniel Tabbush has ~30 years experience analyzing Asia-Pacific banks, including HSBC, Standard Chartered, Japanese and Australian banks. His research and consulting focuses on global banking issues, including with banks in the US. He was the Head of Asian Bank research at the number one Asian brokerage CLSA for most of his career, overseeing coverage of 80 banks and 10 analysts in Asia-Pacific.

He has been highly ranked by Asiamoney, The Asset and Bloomberg, as well as by institutional investors focused on Asia. He continues to appear in press interviews with TVB in Hong Kong, and has appeared on CNBC in the past. He maintains an information-sharing agreement with Dr. Jim Walker of Asianomics, the foremost economist in Asia-Pacific, and Tabbush was an invited speaker on Asian banks at the Independent Research Summit in Hong Kong, during years 2013 and 2014.

Daniel started his own independent bank research and consultancy in 2012, under the banner name Tabbush Report. Since 2014, he has been a member of University of California San Diego Economics Leadership Council (ELC), supporting Economic students at the University through this alumni association, and providing guidance on Economics program develoment. Daniel grew up in Los Angeles, graduated from UCSD in Economics, cum laude and with Phi Beta Kappa honors. He lives with his family in Bangkok, and enjoys cooking, running and chess.

He is known for extolling the unusual positives of Japan’s mega banks in 2005, and the risks likely to hit HSBC from its U.S. subprime loan operations, in 2006.  More recently, when most were concerned with nearly all Western banks in late 2008, Tabbush highlighted the positive outlook for Standard Chartered Bank at that time. 

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 
 
Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, S&P Global Market Intelligence. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics.