External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Based in Paris, BNP Paribas' Economic Research Department is composed of economists and statisticians: The OECD Economics team, in charge of macroeconomic and financial forecasts, and the team of statisticians, both headed by Hélène Baudchon. The Emerging Economies and Country Risk team, led by François Faure and assisted by Christine Peltier, responsible for assessing country risk and its components. The Banking Economics team, led by Laurent Quignon, studies the banking systems of major developed countries and the impact of prudential standards. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>While the Fed eased its monetary policy on 10 December for the third consecutive FOMC meeting, without making any guarantees about future action, the Bank of England (BoE), the ECB and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are holding their respective meetings this week.</li><li>The BoE is expected to cut its key interest rate, the ECB to keep it steady, and the BoJ to raise it.</li><li>These decisions come amid resilient growth performance despite shocks, which should lead central banks to remain cautious, whether in terms of easing (a residual cut expected for the BoE and none for the ECB) or raising key rates (which should remain a gradual process in Japan).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

While the Fed eased its monetary policy on 10 December for the third consecutive FOMC meeting, without making any guarantees about future action, the Bank of England (BoE), the ECB and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are holding their respective meetings this week.The BoE is expected to cut its key interest rate, the ECB to keep it steady, and the BoJ to raise it.These decisions come amid resilient growth performance despite shocks, which should lead central banks to remain cautious, whether in terms of easing (a residual cut expected for the BoE and none for the ECB) or raising key rates (which should remain a gradual process in Japan).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Monetary policy: three central banks, three decisions, the same caution

<ul><li>The Fed eased its monetary policy, with two expected announcements: the end of the central bank's balance sheet reduction process from 1st December; and a second straight cut (-25 bp) in the Fed Funds target, without unanimity, bringing it to +3.75% - +4.0%, due to downside risks in the labour market.</li><li>We anticipate a further 25bp cut in December, driven by the Fed's bias towards employment and downward revisions to our inflation forecasts for the coming quarters.</li><li>However, this easing cannot be taken for granted, as J. Powell insisted on keeping options open ahead of the upcoming meeting.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Fed eased its monetary policy, with two expected announcements: the end of the central bank's balance sheet reduction process from 1st December; and a second straight cut (-25 bp) in the Fed Funds target, without unanimity, bringing it to +3.75% - +4.0%, due to downside risks in the labour market.We anticipate a further 25bp cut in December, driven by the Fed's bias towards employment and downward revisions to our inflation forecasts for the coming quarters.However, this easing cannot be taken for granted, as J. Powell insisted on keeping options open ahead of the upcoming meeting.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FOMC: End of balance sheet runoff, another rate cut... but no commitment on the next one

<ul><li>As widely anticipated, the 16-17 September FOMC meeting ended with the Fed reducing its target rate by 25bp, while reasserting its independence.</li><li>While the marked slowdown in payroll growth prompted the Fed to cut the policy rate for the first time in 2025, it reiterated that future decisions would remain data-dependent.</li><li>In our view, the downside risks to the labour market cast little doubt about the continuation of monetary easing.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

As widely anticipated, the 16-17 September FOMC meeting ended with the Fed reducing its target rate by 25bp, while reasserting its independence.While the marked slowdown in payroll growth prompted the Fed to cut the policy rate for the first time in 2025, it reiterated that future decisions would remain data-dependent.In our view, the downside risks to the labour market cast little doubt about the continuation of monetary easing.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The adverse effects of the Trump administration's trade and migration policies on US economic activity are emerging, as they were reflected in the July Employment Situation report and the economy as a whole is exhibiting further signs of a clear loss of momentum.</li><li>Meanwhile, the trade agreements recently signed should ease the uncertainty shock.</li><li>Finally, the rebalancing of risks associated with increased fears about employment could challenge the Fed's wait-and-see stance.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The adverse effects of the Trump administration's trade and migration policies on US economic activity are emerging, as they were reflected in the July Employment Situation report and the economy as a whole is exhibiting further signs of a clear loss of momentum.Meanwhile, the trade agreements recently signed should ease the uncertainty shock.Finally, the rebalancing of risks associated with increased fears about employment could challenge the Fed's wait-and-see stance.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>GDP growth figures for the first half of the year were clouded by a series of conflicting factors.</li><li>In Q2, growth in the Eurozone was hit by a decline in exports, while imports in the United States led to a sharp rebound.</li><li>This is a backlash from Q1, when additional exports, in anticipation of the tariff shock, had supported growth in the Eurozone, while penalising growth in the United States.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

GDP growth figures for the first half of the year were clouded by a series of conflicting factors.In Q2, growth in the Eurozone was hit by a decline in exports, while imports in the United States led to a sharp rebound.This is a backlash from Q1, when additional exports, in anticipation of the tariff shock, had supported growth in the Eurozone, while penalising growth in the United States.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Resilient growth in Q2, in both the Eurozone and the United States