Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets, daaimon

Avien Pillay

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets

daaimon

daaimon is an independent research company focusing on healthcare and consumer sectors across developed and emerging markets. We produce insightful research which challenges conventional thinking. In particular, we look for new ideas by testing consensus forecasts and markets expectations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Daiichi Sankyo Co, Ltd is a holding company established through merger of Sankyo and Daiichi pharmaceutical. The Group manufactures pharmaceuticals for human/veterinary use and medical tools and equipment. It also researches and promotes products through related companies throughout the world. The Group also produces food, food additives, livestock feeds, and agrochemicals.

<ul>
<li>At a 51 NPE, Daiichi Sankyo was priced for perfection.</li>
<li>We do like their focus on the high growth oncology segment, however, we felt that the valuation left no room for error.</li>
<li>Post the two disappointing trial announcements, at a 39 NPE, the valuation is become more palatable and getting closer to our mid-thirties target entry point.</li>
</ul>


At a 51 NPE, Daiichi Sankyo was priced for perfection.
We do like their focus on the high growth oncology segment, however, we felt that the valuation left no room for error.
Post the two disappointing trial announcements, at a 39 NPE, the valuation is become more palatable and getting closer to our mid-thirties target entry point.


Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) Valuation Update – Are We There Yet?

Celltrion Inc. produces and sells biosimilar products and also provides consignm ent processing service for other companies.  The Company's main product is Abata cept which is for arthritis treatment

<ul>
<li>The biosimilar market is forecast to grow three to four times faster than the generic drug market over the next five years.</li>
<li>However, we believe that this high growth will not necessarily imply good profitability, given the early stage of the biosimilar market, complications and competition.</li>
<li>We also believe that the company’s guidance is too optimistic resulting in an expensive multiple. We prefer some room for error.  </li>
</ul>


The biosimilar market is forecast to grow three to four times faster than the generic drug market over the next five years.
However, we believe that this high growth will not necessarily imply good profitability, given the early stage of the biosimilar market, complications and competition.
We also believe that the company’s guidance is too optimistic resulting in an expensive multiple. We prefer some room for error.  


Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)– Is the Sell-Side’s Bullishness Justified?

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

<ul>
<li>Dupert, a drug for the special treatment of non-small cell cancer has been approved by the NMPA.</li>
<li>In 2022, China recorded the highest number of new cancer cases, and their exceptional high incidence of smoking is of particular concern.</li>
<li>Innovent’s portfolio of nine oncology drugs is very attractive in the biggest cancer market.</li>
</ul>


Dupert, a drug for the special treatment of non-small cell cancer has been approved by the NMPA.
In 2022, China recorded the highest number of new cancer cases, and their exceptional high incidence of smoking is of particular concern.
Innovent’s portfolio of nine oncology drugs is very attractive in the biggest cancer market.


Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) Adds to Its Oncology Portfolio

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The GLP-1 market is evolving at a rapid pace, and we have quickly moved onto the development of a triple agonist drug.</li>
<li>First mover advantage is expected to lose steam as more effective GLP-1s are launched.</li>
<li>Scary side effects; challenged patents and strong competition will favour the cost-effective producers.</li>
</ul>


The GLP-1 market is evolving at a rapid pace, and we have quickly moved onto the development of a triple agonist drug.
First mover advantage is expected to lose steam as more effective GLP-1s are launched.
Scary side effects; challenged patents and strong competition will favour the cost-effective producers.


The United Laboratories International Holdings Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

The United Laboratories International Holdings Limited produces and distributes pharmaceutical products. The Company's products include finished products, APIs, intermediates, and capsules.

The United Laboratories International Holdings Limited (3933 HK)

The United Laboratories International Holdings Limited

<ul>
<li>At a 4.6 FPE, you would expect to find some real concerns, however there are no gremlins anywhere?  </li>
<li>What you are buying is an antibiotic developer and distributor who is performing better than expected, given that the antibiotic market is thriving.</li>
<li>The extensive pipeline including GLP-1 drugs is still at an early stage/midway through development, however at this valuation, you are probably not paying for it!</li>
</ul>


At a 4.6 FPE, you would expect to find some real concerns, however there are no gremlins anywhere?  
What you are buying is an antibiotic developer and distributor who is performing better than expected, given that the antibiotic market is thriving.
The extensive pipeline including GLP-1 drugs is still at an early stage/midway through development, however at this valuation, you are probably not paying for it!


The United Laboratories Company Ltd (3933 HK) - A Sub Five PE Bargain!

A multi-skilled investment professional with 20+ years’ experience in the developed and emerging markets across all sectors, and a strong focus on healthcare. Most of my time has been spent as a buyside and independent equity analyst. My approach is a combination of bottom-up and top-down analysis, with a strong bias to qualitative analysis.

Avien Pillay
Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets
• daaimon

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) Valuation Update – Are We There Yet?

The “priced for perfection scenario” is unwinding and the valuation is become more palatable. We recommend buying into weakness.

daaimon

Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)– Is the Sell-Side’s Bullishness Justified?

Biosimilar market is expected to grow much faster than generic drug market, but profitability will be a challenge. Celltrion’s guidance is too...

daaimon

Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) Adds to Its Oncology Portfolio

Innovent’s portfolio of nine approved oncology drugs, and pipeline of late-stage oncology drugs makes it a very attractive asset in the biggest...

daaimon

GLP-1s - Update 1

The GLP-1 market is evolving at a rapid pace and strong competition, patent challenges, and pressure to solve the obesity epidemic will favour the...

daaimon

The United Laboratories Company Ltd (3933 HK) - A Sub Five PE Bargain!

TUL is a sub five PE company that is growing strongly, cash generative, paying 35% of earnings as dividends, and has an extensive pipeline...

daaimon