Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>US election outcome and policy proposals causing challenges for emerging markets in 2025</li><li>Expectations for US exceptionalism and potential insularity affecting global trade and growth</li><li>Potential impacts on inflation, monetary policy, fiscal dynamics, and investment environment for EM fixed income in 2025, with short-term opportunities amidst uncertainties.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US election outcome and policy proposals causing challenges for emerging markets in 2025Expectations for US exceptionalism and potential insularity affecting global trade and growthPotential impacts on inflation, monetary policy, fiscal dynamics, and investment environment for EM fixed income in 2025, with short-term opportunities amidst uncertainties.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EM Fixed Income: Emerging Markets Outlook & Strategy for 2025

FX & Rates

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

<ul><li>DXY strength through 1Q25 predicted with positive volatility</li><li>Dollar correlations expected to remain firm, with potential pockets of soft cross correlations</li><li>Systematic FX adoptions models highlight opportunities in FX carry via options, short volume strategy, volume reversal model, and volcurve model for 2025</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

DXY strength through 1Q25 predicted with positive volatilityDollar correlations expected to remain firm, with potential pockets of soft cross correlationsSystematic FX adoptions models highlight opportunities in FX carry via options, short volume strategy, volume reversal model, and volcurve model for 2025This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

<ul><li>JP Morgan's base case outcome for 2025 euro rate outlook is positive, with a focus on growing euro economy and inflation reaching 2%</li><li>French political uncertainty may cause modest widening in intra-EMU spreads, but overall outlook remains positive</li><li>German swap spreads expected to stay range bound with modest widening bias, driven by technical flows and repo rates</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

JP Morgan's base case outcome for 2025 euro rate outlook is positive, with a focus on growing euro economy and inflation reaching 2%French political uncertainty may cause modest widening in intra-EMU spreads, but overall outlook remains positiveGerman swap spreads expected to stay range bound with modest widening bias, driven by technical flows and repo ratesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates: European rates 2025 outlook

Commodities

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

<ul>
<li>Trump's energy policy focused on increasing domestic production and exerting pressure on oil exports to bring down prices</li>
<li>Forecast for 2025 and 2026 predicts global commodities market growth and potential oil price fluctuations</li>
<li>OPEC members plan to increase capacity in 2025, leading to a large surplus in the oil market and potentially lower prices in 2026</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Trump's energy policy focused on increasing domestic production and exerting pressure on oil exports to bring down prices
Forecast for 2025 and 2026 predicts global commodities market growth and potential oil price fluctuations
OPEC members plan to increase capacity in 2025, leading to a large surplus in the oil market and potentially lower prices in 2026

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Commodities: Oil Outlook 2025/2026: Promises made, promises kept

<ul>
<li>EM sovereign debt has seen significant changes since the pandemic, but no wave of defaults has occurred</li>
<li>China's debt numbers are higher than Europe's for the first time, impacting the global market</li>
<li>Sovereign debt restructuring remains a complex and idiosyncratic process, with challenges ahead for debt dynamics and growth in the EM market</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


EM sovereign debt has seen significant changes since the pandemic, but no wave of defaults has occurred
China's debt numbers are higher than Europe's for the first time, impacting the global market
Sovereign debt restructuring remains a complex and idiosyncratic process, with challenges ahead for debt dynamics and growth in the EM market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.