Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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Equity Bottom-Up

Nuvama Wealth Management / Equity Bottom-Up

Nuvama Wealth Management Limited provides financial services. The Company offers wealth management, portfolio management, and advisory services to individuals, institutions, trusts, private funds, charitable organizations, and investment companies. Nuvama Wealth Management serves customers India.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuvama-wealth-management-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40316:1" rel="noopener">Nuvama Wealth Management ("Nuvama")</a>  continues to report strong growth with Q4FY24 revenue at INR 596cr, a growth of 35% YoY. Q4FY24 PAT grew 57% YoY to reach INR 181cr. </li>
<li>Overall, FY24 revenue and PAT ended strong at INR 2063cr (YoY growth of 31%) and INR 597cr (YoY growth of 62%), respectively.</li>
<li>FY24 growth was led by the capital markets (revenue grew 64% YoY) segment, aided by favorable cycle and market-share gains. Wealth and asset management segments are also scaling up well.</li>
</ul>



Nuvama Wealth Management ("Nuvama")  continues to report strong growth with Q4FY24 revenue at INR 596cr, a growth of 35% YoY. Q4FY24 PAT grew 57% YoY to reach INR 181cr. 
Overall, FY24 revenue and PAT ended strong at INR 2063cr (YoY growth of 31%) and INR 597cr (YoY growth of 62%), respectively.
FY24 growth was led by the capital markets (revenue grew 64% YoY) segment, aided by favorable cycle and market-share gains. Wealth and asset management segments are also scaling up well.


Kolte Patil Developers / Equity Bottom-Up

Kolte-Patil Developers Ltd. builds residential housing, commercial complexes, and mixed residential and commercial projects.

<ul>
<li>Kolte Patil reported a muted Q4FY24 with sales value flattish at INR 743cr vs INR 746cr QoQ. However, overall FY24 ended strong with sales value growing at 25%+ YoY.</li>
<li>New project acquisition ended FY24 at INR 6000cr+, which was below the guidance of INR 8000cr. However, Kolte Patil remains upbeat and has guided to do INR 8000cr in FY25.</li>
<li>Even with lower than expected project acquisitions, Kolte Patil is well positioned with INR 25000cr worth of projects portfolio. It has guided for 25% CAGR in sales value through FY25-27.</li>
</ul>


Kolte Patil reported a muted Q4FY24 with sales value flattish at INR 743cr vs INR 746cr QoQ. However, overall FY24 ended strong with sales value growing at 25%+ YoY.
New project acquisition ended FY24 at INR 6000cr+, which was below the guidance of INR 8000cr. However, Kolte Patil remains upbeat and has guided to do INR 8000cr in FY25.
Even with lower than expected project acquisitions, Kolte Patil is well positioned with INR 25000cr worth of projects portfolio. It has guided for 25% CAGR in sales value through FY25-27.


Kolte Patil: Medium-Term Outlook Remains Robust

Rajshree Polypack Limited manufactures packaging products. The Company offers coffee cups, trays, lids, plates, bowls, and other containers, as well as plastics rigid sheet. Rajshree Polypack serves dairy, beverages, retail, pharmaceuticals, and electronics industries in India.

<ul>
<li>RPPL executed well in FY24 with sales volume growth at 18% YoY. However, sudden and significant contraction in raw material prices dampened FY24 sales value growth to just 9% YoY.</li>
<li>Exports sustained its quarterly run-rate of INR 10cr+ in Q4FY24, resulting in FY24 aggregate exports sales at INR 42cr. Exports contributed 15% of revenues in FY24 vs 5% in FY23.</li>
<li>RPPL is also making good progress with its new initiatives. Its Olive Ecopak venture began commercial production in Mar 2024. Its injection molding segment is also scaling up well.</li>
</ul>


RPPL executed well in FY24 with sales volume growth at 18% YoY. However, sudden and significant contraction in raw material prices dampened FY24 sales value growth to just 9% YoY.
Exports sustained its quarterly run-rate of INR 10cr+ in Q4FY24, resulting in FY24 aggregate exports sales at INR 42cr. Exports contributed 15% of revenues in FY24 vs 5% in FY23.
RPPL is also making good progress with its new initiatives. Its Olive Ecopak venture began commercial production in Mar 2024. Its injection molding segment is also scaling up well.


Rajshree Polypack (RPPL): All Set for a Strong FY25

HealthCare Global Enterprises / Equity Bottom-Up

HealthCare Global Enterprises Limited provides medical and surgical hospital services. The Hospital offers cancer care, chemotherapy, cyberknife surgery, surgical, radiation, and medical oncology services. HealthCare Global Enterprises operates worldwide.

<ul>
<li>With emerging centers scaling up and established centers growing steadily, HCG's profitability is growing strong. HCG's Q4FY24 PBT grew to INR 28cr vs INR 13cr YoY and INR 3cr QoQ. </li>
<li>With the patient mix improving for emerging centers with growing vintage, ARPOB for emerging centers has crossed INR 40000, a rise of 12.2% YoY.</li>
<li>We estimate that by FY26, HCG's PAT could exceed INR 260cr, leading us to value HCG at a market cap of around INR 10000cr at 38x+ FY26 exit P/E.</li>
</ul>


With emerging centers scaling up and established centers growing steadily, HCG's profitability is growing strong. HCG's Q4FY24 PBT grew to INR 28cr vs INR 13cr YoY and INR 3cr QoQ. 
With the patient mix improving for emerging centers with growing vintage, ARPOB for emerging centers has crossed INR 40000, a rise of 12.2% YoY.
We estimate that by FY26, HCG's PAT could exceed INR 260cr, leading us to value HCG at a market cap of around INR 10000cr at 38x+ FY26 exit P/E.


HCG: Emerging Centers Are Scaling Up Well

Nesco Ltd. is a diversified company involved in manufacturing and engineering products for railways and forging,  realty development, and runs an exhibition center.

<ul>
<li>Exceeding our upgraded FY24 PAT estimate of INR 350cr+, Nesco reported PAT of INR 363cr, led by Q4Y24 PAT of INR 105cr, a rise of 24% YoY and 12%+ QoQ.</li>
<li>Q4FY24 revenues grew 6%+ QoQ and 20%+ YoY. Growth was driven by BEC where revenues grew 6% QoQ and 31%+ YoY. IT Park revenue grew 2% QoQ and 13% YoY.</li>
<li>For FY25, we estimate that Nesco could post a PAT of INR 420cr+. Per our FY25 exit P/E of 26x+, Nesco could be valued at around INR 11000cr.</li>
</ul>


Exceeding our upgraded FY24 PAT estimate of INR 350cr+, Nesco reported PAT of INR 363cr, led by Q4Y24 PAT of INR 105cr, a rise of 24% YoY and 12%+ QoQ.
Q4FY24 revenues grew 6%+ QoQ and 20%+ YoY. Growth was driven by BEC where revenues grew 6% QoQ and 31%+ YoY. IT Park revenue grew 2% QoQ and 13% YoY.
For FY25, we estimate that Nesco could post a PAT of INR 420cr+. Per our FY25 exit P/E of 26x+, Nesco could be valued at around INR 11000cr.


I possess investment research experience across asset classes and geographies, acquired at Investcorp (New York) and Howe & Rusling (Rochester). At Investcorp, an alternative asset manager, I was part of an investment team managing >$1bn in discretionary client assets. I was also a member of investment recommendation, monitoring, cross-asset strategy and macro outlook committees that met periodically for investment decisions and top-down views. At Howe & Rusling, a long-only asset manager, I helped cover US large-cap equity investments across sectors for growth and income focused portfolios as well as assisted in managing a US small-cap growth focused equity portfolio. I possess an MBA in finance and corporate accounting from University of Rochester in US, a CFA Charter, and an Engineering degree from Indian Institute of Technology Bombay in India.  

My current focus is L/S equity fundamental research across market cap and sectors with an eye on corporate governance and forensic accounting. I am currently based in India and my current coverage universe is biased towards India.

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Regulatory Disclosure: Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details -
Address: A-602, Titanium Business Park, Makarba, Ahmedabad - 380051 |
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com |
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer -
Name: Ankit Agrawal |
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com |
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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