Political Analyst, Heteronomics

Alastair Newton

Political Analyst

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>There are notable differences in short-term prospects for oil demand.</li><li>These differences become more pronounced when considering the timing of 'peak oil'.</li><li>'Peak oil' refers to the hypothetical point at which global oil production will hit its maximum rate before declining.</li></ul>

There are notable differences in short-term prospects for oil demand.These differences become more pronounced when considering the timing of 'peak oil'.'Peak oil' refers to the hypothetical point at which global oil production will hit its maximum rate before declining.

<ul><li>The escalation in international trade tensions is expected to be more severe under a second Trump administration.</li><li>Despite the outcome of the US election, protectionism is predicted to persist globally.</li><li>The rise of protectionism is a global concern, not solely dependent on US politics.</li></ul>

The escalation in international trade tensions is expected to be more severe under a second Trump administration.Despite the outcome of the US election, protectionism is predicted to persist globally.The rise of protectionism is a global concern, not solely dependent on US politics.

<ul><li>China's economic trajectory is clarified by Xi Jinping's statement regarding the Third Plenary's outcome.</li><li>Xi Jinping frequently expresses his determination to make China technologically self-reliant.</li><li>This self-reliance in technology is seen as a hedge against external threats.</li></ul>

China's economic trajectory is clarified by Xi Jinping's statement regarding the Third Plenary's outcome.Xi Jinping frequently expresses his determination to make China technologically self-reliant.This self-reliance in technology is seen as a hedge against external threats.

China: “Confusion Will Be My Epitaph”?

<ul><li>Donald Trump's running mate, JD Vance, discussed economic policy during his nomination speech.</li><li>Further investigation provides some insight into what these policies might look like in practice.</li><li>However, understanding the specifics of a potential 'Trump Trade' policy remains difficult.</li></ul>

Donald Trump's running mate, JD Vance, discussed economic policy during his nomination speech.Further investigation provides some insight into what these policies might look like in practice.However, understanding the specifics of a potential 'Trump Trade' policy remains difficult.

<ul><li>The Opec secretariat has made a bullish July forecast for oil demand, which deviates from the industry's near-consensus.</li><li>The industry's consensus is more aligned with the International Energy Agency's assessment.</li><li>Given this, the recent increase in the price of Brent crude should be approached with caution.</li></ul>

The Opec secretariat has made a bullish July forecast for oil demand, which deviates from the industry's near-consensus.The industry's consensus is more aligned with the International Energy Agency's assessment.Given this, the recent increase in the price of Brent crude should be approached with caution.

Alastair was Senior Political Analyst at Nomura International plc between October 2008 and July 2015,
having first joined Lehman Brothers International in that capacity in August 2005. As such, he was responsible for identifying, tracking, analysing and illuminating to investors political events worldwide likely to impact on financial markets. In addition to his signature periodical Issues Which Keep Me Awake At Night on political and geopolitical risk, he was the co-author of major studies on China, India, Indonesia, North Korea, Iran/Israel and on geopolitical risks related to the shift of the global economic centre of gravity back towards Asia, as well as numerous shorter papers.