Political Analyst, Heteronomics

Alastair Newton

Political Analyst

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Donald Trump is committed to reducing energy prices by 50% within a year.</li><li>However, uncontrollable factors may hinder this goal.</li><li>As such, he may only achieve a modest success, if any.</li></ul>

Donald Trump is committed to reducing energy prices by 50% within a year.However, uncontrollable factors may hinder this goal.As such, he may only achieve a modest success, if any.

<ul><li>Donald Trump has consistently advocated for the use of tariffs to address what he perceives as 'unfair' trade practices causing US trade deficits.</li><li>His stance, whether used as a bargaining chip or not, is based on a Hobbesian view.</li><li>This viewpoint poses a significant threat to the global economy.</li></ul>

Donald Trump has consistently advocated for the use of tariffs to address what he perceives as 'unfair' trade practices causing US trade deficits.His stance, whether used as a bargaining chip or not, is based on a Hobbesian view.This viewpoint poses a significant threat to the global economy.

<ul><li>Markets were surprisingly affected by Chancellor Rachel Reeves' budget speech, which they should not have been.</li><li>There is a justified concern due to the lack of a clear reform roadmap in her speech.</li><li>Reeves needs to improve her approach for the upcoming Mansion House event on 14 November.</li></ul>

Markets were surprisingly affected by Chancellor Rachel Reeves' budget speech, which they should not have been.There is a justified concern due to the lack of a clear reform roadmap in her speech.Reeves needs to improve her approach for the upcoming Mansion House event on 14 November.

<ul><li>The upcoming presidential election is highly unpredictable, requiring investors to be cautious.</li><li>There is a possibility that Donald Trump may challenge a victory by Harris, adding to the uncertainty.</li><li>This potential dispute could lead to a prolonged period of market instability, possibly resulting in Trump overturning the election results.</li></ul>

The upcoming presidential election is highly unpredictable, requiring investors to be cautious.There is a possibility that Donald Trump may challenge a victory by Harris, adding to the uncertainty.This potential dispute could lead to a prolonged period of market instability, possibly resulting in Trump overturning the election results.

<ul><li>The US elections, excluding the Senate, are currently very close.</li><li>There are four potential outcomes, each with a probability of 20% or higher.</li><li>The scenarios suggest that a Trump administration would have a greater ability to implement its agenda than a Harris administration.</li></ul>

The US elections, excluding the Senate, are currently very close.There are four potential outcomes, each with a probability of 20% or higher.The scenarios suggest that a Trump administration would have a greater ability to implement its agenda than a Harris administration.

Alastair was Senior Political Analyst at Nomura International plc between October 2008 and July 2015,
having first joined Lehman Brothers International in that capacity in August 2005. As such, he was responsible for identifying, tracking, analysing and illuminating to investors political events worldwide likely to impact on financial markets. In addition to his signature periodical Issues Which Keep Me Awake At Night on political and geopolitical risk, he was the co-author of major studies on China, India, Indonesia, North Korea, Iran/Israel and on geopolitical risks related to the shift of the global economic centre of gravity back towards Asia, as well as numerous shorter papers.