Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In October, Mexico received USD 5.723 billion in remittances, accumulating a balance of USD 54 billion so far this year (2.2% YoY).</li>
<li>This suggests that remittances could reach a record high of close to USD 65.5 billion this year.</li>
<li>Given the 20% depreciation of the national currency against the dollar along 2024, remittances have increased again in pesos, reaching 1,153 billion pesos.</li>
</ul>


In October, Mexico received USD 5.723 billion in remittances, accumulating a balance of USD 54 billion so far this year (2.2% YoY).
This suggests that remittances could reach a record high of close to USD 65.5 billion this year.
Given the 20% depreciation of the national currency against the dollar along 2024, remittances have increased again in pesos, reaching 1,153 billion pesos.


Actinver Research - Macro Daily: Remittances point to a record for 2024, close to USD 65 billion.

Equity Bottom-Up

Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV produces and sells bakery products.  The Company produces breads, cookies, pies, pastries, sweet rolls, tortillas, tostadas, and snacks. The Company also makes appetizers, sweets, chocolates, jams, and other confections.  Grupo Bimbo markets its products throughout the Americas and Europe.

<ul>
<li>Grupo Bimbo’s claim is based on the acquisition of Canada Bread Company from Maple Leaf Foods (MFI CN, not covered).</li>
<li>Bimbo is seeking over CAD$2bn for alleged fraudulent practices, as Canada Bread has been impacted since 2017 due to a price-fixing investigation within the commercial bread industry by the Competition Bureau.</li>
<li>Subsequently, Canada Bread paid a CAD$50mn fine in 2023.</li>
</ul>


Grupo Bimbo’s claim is based on the acquisition of Canada Bread Company from Maple Leaf Foods (MFI CN, not covered).
Bimbo is seeking over CAD$2bn for alleged fraudulent practices, as Canada Bread has been impacted since 2017 due to a price-fixing investigation within the commercial bread industry by the Competition Bureau.
Subsequently, Canada Bread paid a CAD$50mn fine in 2023.


Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: Bimbo files statement of claim against Maple Leaf Foods

<ul>
<li>The 2025 budget sends the right signals to the market by reinstating financial discipline.</li>
<li>However, given the macroeconomic assumptions, the global economic environment, and the limited flexibility in spending, there is little room for deviations.</li>
<li>The federal government presented the 2025 Economic Package, in which the broadest measure of debt (Public Sector Financial Requirements, RFSP) is planned to decrease from 5.9% of GDP this year to 3.9% in 2025. </li>
</ul>


The 2025 budget sends the right signals to the market by reinstating financial discipline.
However, given the macroeconomic assumptions, the global economic environment, and the limited flexibility in spending, there is little room for deviations.
The federal government presented the 2025 Economic Package, in which the broadest measure of debt (Public Sector Financial Requirements, RFSP) is planned to decrease from 5.9% of GDP this year to 3.9% in 2025. 


Actinver Research - Macro Daily: Public Finance 2025

<ul>
<li>For the first half of November, we forecast headline inflation at 0.40% bw, below the historical average due to the early discount season of “El Buen Fin”.</li>
<li>This would bring inflation to 4.59% YoY.</li>
<li>Our estimate of 0.40% bw is below the historical average of 0.54% bw for this period.</li>
</ul>


For the first half of November, we forecast headline inflation at 0.40% bw, below the historical average due to the early discount season of “El Buen Fin”.
This would bring inflation to 4.59% YoY.
Our estimate of 0.40% bw is below the historical average of 0.54% bw for this period.


Actinver Research - Macro Daily: Inflation 1h-Nov

<ul>
<li>We review our current coverage given recent headlines, including potential FX depreciation, trade moves and migration changes.</li>
<li>Within Consumer, we see most of our covered companies as solidly positioned, as most of these companies have at least a third of their revenues originated in the U.S., with mostly minimal export-import relationship.</li>
<li>In Cement, our covered companies are also well positioned, supported by their exposure to the U.S. market, with a significant portion of their EBITDA generated in this country.</li>
</ul>


We review our current coverage given recent headlines, including potential FX depreciation, trade moves and migration changes.
Within Consumer, we see most of our covered companies as solidly positioned, as most of these companies have at least a third of their revenues originated in the U.S., with mostly minimal export-import relationship.
In Cement, our covered companies are also well positioned, supported by their exposure to the U.S. market, with a significant portion of their EBITDA generated in this country.


Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: Opportunities amid the noise

Our product offering is based on award winning forecasts and a deep understanding of artificial intelligence tools. 
We cover the Mexican economy with in-depth sector and state knowledge, as well as the integration with the U.S., providing high added value studies. 
To provide comprehensive coverage, we analyze the main macroeconomic variables, sectors, indexes and market information. 
Through solid statistical and computational tools we generate targeted investment strategies for clients with advanced investment profiles such as pension funds, hedge funds and others.