ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ciputra-development-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5513:1" rel="noopener">Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dci-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33592:1" rel="noopener">DCI Indonesia (DCII IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arwana-citramulia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17042:1" rel="noopener">Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)</a>.</li>
<li>There were also macro insights on Malaysian Politics and the Indonesian economy together with CrossASEAN Ground Zero which looks at the changing dynamics of commerce, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast (VFS US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a>.</li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


The past week saw insights on Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ), DCI Indonesia (DCII IJ), Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ), Thai Beverage (THBEV SP), and Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB).
There were also macro insights on Malaysian Politics and the Indonesian economy together with CrossASEAN Ground Zero which looks at the changing dynamics of commerce, Vinfast (VFS US), and Grab.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Ciputra Development, Arwana's Catalyst, and Thai Beverage.

Equity Bottom-Up

Thai Beverage Public Company Limited produces a wide range of branded beer and spirits in Thailand.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage</a> will offload its entire stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-property-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1670:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Property Ltd</a> to TCC Assets in a share swap for an increased share in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fraser-and-neave-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:980:1" rel="noopener">Fraser And Neave</a> streamlining its business focus.</li>
<li>The share swap values <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fraser-and-neave-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:980:1" rel="noopener">Fraser And Neave</a> on a par with peers which is at a significant premium to the share price but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fraser-and-neave-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:980:1" rel="noopener">Fraser And Neave</a> was excessively undervalued.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage</a> deserves to trade on a higher multiple given its pure-play status and a succession of recent restructurings including Serm Suk and Oishi Holdings. </li>
</ul>



Thai Beverage will offload its entire stake in Frasers Property Ltd to TCC Assets in a share swap for an increased share in Fraser And Neave streamlining its business focus.
The share swap values Fraser And Neave on a par with peers which is at a significant premium to the share price but Fraser And Neave was excessively undervalued.

Thai Beverage deserves to trade on a higher multiple given its pure-play status and a succession of recent restructurings including Serm Suk and Oishi Holdings. 


Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) - Increasingly Streamlined SEA F&B Play

PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk manufactures ceramic construction material for flooring. Through its subsidiary, the Company also distributes its products. The Company's factory is located in Tangerang, Banten.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arwana-citramulia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17042:1" rel="noopener">Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ)</a> is Indonesia's leading ceramic tile producer catering to the mass market but expanding into the higher-end porcelain tile space competing with Chinese imports at lower costs.</li>
<li>The recent move by the government to extend the gas subsidy for the industry bodes well for Arwana given the strides it has already made in reducing gas consumption.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arwana-citramulia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17042:1" rel="noopener">Arwana</a> continues to expand its capacity, especially in higher-margin porcelain tiles, which will help to drive future growth and profitability. Valuations are attractive as capacity-driven growth kicks in.</li>
</ul>



Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) is Indonesia's leading ceramic tile producer catering to the mass market but expanding into the higher-end porcelain tile space competing with Chinese imports at lower costs.
The recent move by the government to extend the gas subsidy for the industry bodes well for Arwana given the strides it has already made in reducing gas consumption.

Arwana continues to expand its capacity, especially in higher-margin porcelain tiles, which will help to drive future growth and profitability. Valuations are attractive as capacity-driven growth kicks in.


Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) - Top Notch Industrial with a Catalyst

PT Ciputra Development Tbk develops and sells real estate including office spaces, shopping centers, and related facilities as well as industrial estates. The Company also designs, develops, and maintains housing facilities including golf courses, clubs, restaurants, recreational places, and related facilities.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ciputra-development-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5513:1" rel="noopener">Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ)</a> continued to book strong marketing sales in 1H2024 and looks well on track to meet or beat its FY2024E guidance with a strong pipeline of projects.</li>
<li>CTRA has the most geographically diversified portfolios in the sector and operates an asset-light joint operating scheme strategy allowing for faster expansion and a good portion of recurrent rental income. </li>
<li>The VAT exemption program looks set to continue to drive residential demand in 2H2024 with CTRA riding the affordability wave having also repositioned its target market. </li>
</ul>



Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ) continued to book strong marketing sales in 1H2024 and looks well on track to meet or beat its FY2024E guidance with a strong pipeline of projects.
CTRA has the most geographically diversified portfolios in the sector and operates an asset-light joint operating scheme strategy allowing for faster expansion and a good portion of recurrent rental income. 
The VAT exemption program looks set to continue to drive residential demand in 2H2024 with CTRA riding the affordability wave having also repositioned its target market. 


Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ) - Riding the Affordability Wave

<ul>
<li>This week we look at the changing dynamics behind Southeast Asia's e-commerce landscape as TikTok effectively moves into second place but the dynamics can change rapidly as it restructures Tokopedia. </li>
<li>We also look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast</a> as it delays its US factory launch until 2028 versus 2025 due to slower EV sales and we examine the Grab &amp; Trans-cab situation. </li>
<li>CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.</li>
</ul>


This week we look at the changing dynamics behind Southeast Asia's e-commerce landscape as TikTok effectively moves into second place but the dynamics can change rapidly as it restructures Tokopedia. 
We also look at Vinfast as it delays its US factory launch until 2028 versus 2025 due to slower EV sales and we examine the Grab &amp; Trans-cab situation. 
CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.


CrossASEAN Ground Zero - Changing Dynamic in E-Commerce, Vinfast Holding Back, and Grab & Trans-Cab

In Equity Sales and Research for more than 25 years covering Asian markets. Possesses in-depth knowledge of a wide range of companies, economies, and markets in Asia. Over his career, he has specialised in HK/China and ASEAN markets at various different Investment Banks, most recently heading equities in Indonesia for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Jakarta for more than three years. Whilst in Jakarta, he produced a well-read daily and weekly product on the Indonesian market, which included company visits, as well as political, economic and sector commentary. A former racing skier, who enjoys ultra-marathons and surfing in his spare time.