Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China's M2 (USD42.04trn) is double the size of US M2, having risen 10.4-fold in 18 years (far faster than the 3.1-fold increase in US M2 over that period). </li>
<li>Attempts at further monetary ease (RRR/rate cuts, QE) are futile, as they induce larger capital flight, and fail to rekindle credit demand amid PPI deflation and real-estate over-capacity. </li>
<li>RGDP growth is likely to weaken in H2CY24 as FAI and industrial growth flag, and retail sales stay sluggish. A larger trade surplus won't help, as FX reserves stagnate. </li>
</ul>


China's M2 (USD42.04trn) is double the size of US M2, having risen 10.4-fold in 18 years (far faster than the 3.1-fold increase in US M2 over that period). 
Attempts at further monetary ease (RRR/rate cuts, QE) are futile, as they induce larger capital flight, and fail to rekindle credit demand amid PPI deflation and real-estate over-capacity. 
RGDP growth is likely to weaken in H2CY24 as FAI and industrial growth flag, and retail sales stay sluggish. A larger trade surplus won't help, as FX reserves stagnate. 


China: Growth Inevitably Set to Flag as All Monetary Easing Proves Inefficacious

<ul>
<li>We expect a 12.5bp hike in the policy rate in Sep'24, as CPI inflation (2.52%YoY in Jul'24) remains well above the 2% target amid CBC concerns about overheated property markets. </li>
<li>Real GDP grew 5.1%YoY in Q2CY24, following 6.6%YoY growth in Q1 (both faster than mainland China). Exports grew 10%YoY in Jan-Jul'24, and export orders growth is at a 2-year high.</li>
<li>The market's trailing P/E ratio (23.56x) is well above its 20-year mean (19.84x). But we recommend a mild Overweight in Taiwan equities, with a focus on the largest tech stocks. </li>
</ul>


We expect a 12.5bp hike in the policy rate in Sep'24, as CPI inflation (2.52%YoY in Jul'24) remains well above the 2% target amid CBC concerns about overheated property markets. 
Real GDP grew 5.1%YoY in Q2CY24, following 6.6%YoY growth in Q1 (both faster than mainland China). Exports grew 10%YoY in Jan-Jul'24, and export orders growth is at a 2-year high.
The market's trailing P/E ratio (23.56x) is well above its 20-year mean (19.84x). But we recommend a mild Overweight in Taiwan equities, with a focus on the largest tech stocks. 


Taiwan: Rates to Buck Global Loosening as Growth Stays Robust and Inflation Too High

<ul>
<li>CPI inflation receded to a 59-month low of 3.5%YoY in Jul'24, with food inflation abating to 5.1%YoY (from 8.4%YoY in Jun'24), as vegetable inflation fell to 6.8%YoY (from Jun'24's 29.3%YoY).</li>
<li>Whilst retaining its 6.5% policy rate on 8/8/24, RBI forecast 4.4%YoY inflation in Jul-Sep'24, and 4.7%YoY in Oct-Dec'24; we expect 4.2%YoY and 4.3%YoY respectively, amid 8-10% above-normal monsoon rainfall.</li>
<li>The policy repo rate will likely decline 50bp by Dec'24 and a further 50bp to 5.5% by Jun'25. Rate sensitives like banks, auto-companies, NBFCs and property stocks will benefit. </li>
</ul>


CPI inflation receded to a 59-month low of 3.5%YoY in Jul'24, with food inflation abating to 5.1%YoY (from 8.4%YoY in Jun'24), as vegetable inflation fell to 6.8%YoY (from Jun'24's 29.3%YoY).
Whilst retaining its 6.5% policy rate on 8/8/24, RBI forecast 4.4%YoY inflation in Jul-Sep'24, and 4.7%YoY in Oct-Dec'24; we expect 4.2%YoY and 4.3%YoY respectively, amid 8-10% above-normal monsoon rainfall.
The policy repo rate will likely decline 50bp by Dec'24 and a further 50bp to 5.5% by Jun'25. Rate sensitives like banks, auto-companies, NBFCs and property stocks will benefit. 


India: Relief on Food Inflation Makes an Oct'24 Rate Cut Near-Certain

<ul>
<li>The presidential race has tightened since VP Harris replaced President Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket. Harris leads popular vote, but Trump is ahead in the Electoral College. </li>
<li>Both VP candidates are ideological clones of the presidential candidates. Unless Harris moves to the centre at her convention and debates, Trump's Electoral College lead is likely to persist.  </li>
<li>The energized Democratic base is likely to ensure that either House, Senate or both will be won by Democrats. Divided government is positive for markets, limiting scope for policy extremism. </li>
</ul>


The presidential race has tightened since VP Harris replaced President Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket. Harris leads popular vote, but Trump is ahead in the Electoral College. 
Both VP candidates are ideological clones of the presidential candidates. Unless Harris moves to the centre at her convention and debates, Trump's Electoral College lead is likely to persist.  
The energized Democratic base is likely to ensure that either House, Senate or both will be won by Democrats. Divided government is positive for markets, limiting scope for policy extremism. 


US Presidential Race Narrows, but Trump Still Likely to Win Without Congress Control

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>With nominal GDP growing 6%YoY in the latest 3 quarters, Japanese interest rates will be gradually normalized. The JPY rebound, however, precludes the need for rapid BoJ hikes. </li>
<li>Unwinding of Yen carry-trades should take JPY to ¥125/US$ by end-2024, which will contribute to tightening monetary conditions sufficiently, further slowing inflation (from 2.85%YoY in May-Jun'24). </li>
<li>Appreciating JPY is bad for Japanese equities, so stay Underweight, with a defensive portfolio comprising utilities, pharmaceuticals and consumer staples. </li>
</ul>


With nominal GDP growing 6%YoY in the latest 3 quarters, Japanese interest rates will be gradually normalized. The JPY rebound, however, precludes the need for rapid BoJ hikes. 
Unwinding of Yen carry-trades should take JPY to ¥125/US$ by end-2024, which will contribute to tightening monetary conditions sufficiently, further slowing inflation (from 2.85%YoY in May-Jun'24). 
Appreciating JPY is bad for Japanese equities, so stay Underweight, with a defensive portfolio comprising utilities, pharmaceuticals and consumer staples. 


Japan: Normalizing Interest Rates as Nominal GDP Surges, Ending Deflation Era

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.