Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Asian Paints Limited manufactures a wide range of decorative paints, varnishes, enamels, and black & synthetic resins. The Company, through its subsidiaries, also manufactures specialty industrial chemicals and vinyl pyridine latex products which are used in the manufacture of rubber tires.

<ul>
<li>The paint industry experienced significant challenges in Q2FY24, with most companies reporting subdued performance.</li>
<li>Asian Paints reported typical fluctuations in market share of 1-1.5%, while Berger Paints and AkzoNobel both reported gains in their respective market positions.</li>
<li>Asian Paints' current market share reduction and increased competitive pressure stem from its size and the slowing macro environment.</li>
</ul>


The paint industry experienced significant challenges in Q2FY24, with most companies reporting subdued performance.
Asian Paints reported typical fluctuations in market share of 1-1.5%, while Berger Paints and AkzoNobel both reported gains in their respective market positions.
Asian Paints' current market share reduction and increased competitive pressure stem from its size and the slowing macro environment.


Asian Paints (APNT IN) | Navigating Turbulence

Trent Limited operates a chain of retail stores that sell fashion apparel, cosmetics, perfumery products and toiletry items. The Company sells apparel for men, women and children. Trent sells its cosmetics products under the "Westside" and "Trent" brand names.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8410:1" rel="noopener">Trent Ltd (TRENT IN)</a> is best positioned to capitalize on the growing market for lab-grown diamonds (LGD) and alter its business growth trajectory.</li>
<li>LGD disruptions seen in other markets are unlikely to be seen in India due to the positioning of Jewellery in Household asset allocation. </li>
<li>We also believe that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8410:1" rel="noopener">Trent Ltd (TRENT IN)</a>  LGD potential is underrated while the impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/titan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12630:1" rel="noopener">Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN)</a>  is overrated.</li>
</ul>



Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) is best positioned to capitalize on the growing market for lab-grown diamonds (LGD) and alter its business growth trajectory.
LGD disruptions seen in other markets are unlikely to be seen in India due to the positioning of Jewellery in Household asset allocation. 
We also believe that Trent Ltd (TRENT IN)  LGD potential is underrated while the impact on Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN)  is overrated.


Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) | LGD Can Be the Next Catalyst

Page Industries Limited develops, produces, and distributes branded underwear for men, women, and children in India and Sri Lanka.

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we present our top investment ideas in the Apparel &amp; Fashion retail sector, analyzing recent earnings results and key insights from company earnings calls.</li>
<li>Names discussed include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/page-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4940:1" rel="noopener">Page Industries (PAG IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedant-fashions-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34260:1" rel="noopener">Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aditya-birla-fashion-and-retail-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19048:1" rel="noopener">Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd (ABFRL IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedant-fashions-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34260:1" rel="noopener">, </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arvind-fashions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28960:1" rel="noopener">Arvind Fashions (ARVINDFA IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedant-fashions-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34260:1" rel="noopener"> and </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/go-fashion-india-private-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36625:1" rel="noopener">Go Fashion India (GOCOLORS IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedant-fashions-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34260:1" rel="noopener">.</a> </li>
<li>We have a bearish stance on all names except <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/page-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4940:1" rel="noopener">Page Industries (PAG IN)</a>.  </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we present our top investment ideas in the Apparel &amp; Fashion retail sector, analyzing recent earnings results and key insights from company earnings calls.
Names discussed include Page Industries (PAG IN), Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN), Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd (ABFRL IN), Arvind Fashions (ARVINDFA IN) and Go Fashion India (GOCOLORS IN). 
We have a bearish stance on all names except Page Industries (PAG IN).  


IndusInd Bank Limited is a Mumbai-based Indian new generation bank established in 1994. The Bank provides a range of banking and financial services including  wholesale banking, credit monitoring, risk management, tele-banking, investment banking and commercial lending. IndusInd Bank operates branches throughout India as well as an office in Dubai and London.

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we examine the key challenges facing the sector and discuss potential paths forward for MFI-focused lenders. </li>
<li>Companies in this sector have seen sharp declines, with stocks down 45% from their 52-week highs and showing negative returns of -37% YTD.</li>
<li>Considering the Industry data, it would be fair to conclude that the pain in the industry is likely to persist.  CREDAG, SPANDANA, AUBANK, and IIB are key names to watch.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we examine the key challenges facing the sector and discuss potential paths forward for MFI-focused lenders. 
Companies in this sector have seen sharp declines, with stocks down 45% from their 52-week highs and showing negative returns of -37% YTD.
Considering the Industry data, it would be fair to conclude that the pain in the industry is likely to persist.  CREDAG, SPANDANA, AUBANK, and IIB are key names to watch.


Navigating MFI Consumer Credit Exuberance - A Rocky Road Head

SRF Limited is a multi-business Indian multinational engaging in the manufacture of chemical based industrial intermediates. The Company has a business portfolio that encompasses technical textiles, chemicals, packaging films and engineering plastics.

<ul>
<li>In this Insight, we share our channel inputs that might be relevant for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srf-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3601:1" rel="noopener">SRF Ltd (SRF IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/navin-fluorine-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3511:1" rel="noopener">Navin Fluorine International (NFIL IN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gujarat-fluorochemicals-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44112:1" rel="noopener">Gujarat Fluorochemicals (FLUOROCH IN)</a>.</li>
<li>Weak demand and operational conditions in China have forced companies to focus on clearing inventory rather than maintaining prices, which has negatively impacted India's export-oriented companies.</li>
<li>Industry-Wide product cycles, especially in Specialty Chemicals, are shortening, which is a potential threat to leaders like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srf-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3601:1" rel="noopener">SRF Ltd (SRF IN)</a>.</li>
</ul>


In this Insight, we share our channel inputs that might be relevant for SRF Ltd (SRF IN), Navin Fluorine International (NFIL IN), and Gujarat Fluorochemicals (FLUOROCH IN).
Weak demand and operational conditions in China have forced companies to focus on clearing inventory rather than maintaining prices, which has negatively impacted India's export-oriented companies.
Industry-Wide product cycles, especially in Specialty Chemicals, are shortening, which is a potential threat to leaders like SRF Ltd (SRF IN).


Specialty Chemicals Facing Product Cycle Shortening - A Threat to SRF (SRF IN)?

Pranav Bhavsar & the team at India Independent Insight (Iii), provide research on consumer companies operating or have exposure to in India. The research methodology focuses on carrying out on-the-ground channel surveillance/checks that include supplier/distributor/customer interactions, access to industry experts, and bespoke primary data sources that aid in providing unique insights and counter consensus ideas.  

Leveraging the team's forensic analysis along with channel surveillance, the team at Iii also aids investors in early identification of changing consumer trends, identification and quantification of accounting/governance risks, and the associated impact on the business model of the company.

Pranav has over 15 years of experience in the Indian equity market, and has worked with some of the global activists, long only and PE funds for their India projects. Prior roles also include building and leading an institutional sell-side desk. In his free time, Pranav is a traveler, biker, and a young Indian contributing to the country’s social and economic development.